淮北市经济与生态环境的动态协调发展研究

一个城市的经济发展与生态环境是相互影响相互制约的,经济和生态环境的协调性影响城市的整体发展。本研究鉴于淮北市资源型城市的特殊地位,用1998—2007年的数据对淮北市的经济和生态环境状况进行了研究,并采用协调度模型分析历年淮北市经济和生态环境之间的协调发展状况。研究结果表明,1998至2007年淮北市的总体发展形势是经济水平逐渐提高,生态环境状况逐渐改善,经济和生态环境的发展逐渐走向协调,其中2003年到2004年是淮北市总体发展的转折点,经济发展和生态环境状况之间由基本不协调转向基本协调。最后提出在淮北市临近资源枯竭的关键时期应加强生态建设,加大产业转型力度。     

珠江三角洲水位演变分析

全球气候变暖导致的海平面加速上升已是不争的事实,其长期累积的结果将给沿海地区造成巨大威胁。利用层次聚类分析法、灰关联法、相关分析法等重点分析了海平面上升对珠江三角洲水位的影响。结果显示：海平面上升对珠江三角洲代表站的年平均水位和年最低水位的影响大于对年最高水位的影响;海平面上升对马口站和三水站水位的影响小于河床下切和径流的影响;海平面上升对珠江河口区水位的影响由三角洲深处向口门区有增强趋势。掌握海平面上升对水位的影响规律,对于河口地区的防灾减灾和水资源的合理开发利用具有重要的指导意义。     

南运河重金属污染状况及生态风险评价

采集南运河的水样和沉积物样品,对其重金属污染状况和生态风险进行了分析评价。利用电感耦合等离子体质谱仪(ICP-MS)对水、沉积物中铅(Pb)、铬(Cr)、砷(As)、铜(Cu)和镉(Cd)浓度进行分析。结果显示南运河水样中这5种重金属浓度均低于地表水环境质量标准I类水质标准,虽然运河上游沉积物中As和Cd浓度较高,但沉积物中重金属浓度总体上均处于较低水平。地累积指数法计算显示:As和Cd在部分河段达到重度和中度污染水平,Cu、Cr、Pb均处于无污染水平。各种重金属的潜在生态风险指数(Eir)从大到小的顺序为:CdAsCuPbCr,与地累积指数法结果相似。南运河总的潜在生态风险指数(RI)均值为128.85,潜在生态风险程度为"中",沉积物中Cd和As是南运河需要优先控制的重金属污染物。     

Adaptation in situ or retreat? A multivariate approach to explore the factors that guide the peoples' preference against the impacts of sea level rise in coastal Bangladesh

This paper is aimed to identify the factors that influence peoples' preference for adaptation against the impacts of sea level rise (SLR). A total of 285 respondents from three coastal villages in Bangladesh are randomly interviewed using a semi-structured questionnaire. First, employing the principal component analysis various factors that influence adaptation preferences of people are identified. These factors are related to “demographic and social aspects”, “wealth and economic standing”, “past coping and adaptive behaviour”, “climate knowledge and information” and “spatial aspect” of life. What is common in these factors is their ability to influence peoples' vulnerability. Finally, the binomial logistic regression model is employed to compute the explanatory power of these factors to predict the respondents' preference for adaptation in situ over retreat or vice versa. Model findings are robust for two scenarios of SLR, i.e. 2050–2075 (LR χ ²?=?133.65, pseudo-R ²?=?0.53, p?<?0.001) and 2080–2100 (LR χ ²?=?282.61, pseudo-R ²?=?0.85, p?<?0.001). Therefore, it is concluded that to avoid relocation of substantial number of people initiative for encouraging adaptation in situ must be taken along side establishment of safe shelter, community radio service and campaign for raising climate awareness.     

区域声环境质量污染水平预测方法评价与对比研究

为完成北京市“十二五”城市区域的主要声污染防治工作目标,全面提高北京市声环境质量水平,科学预测区域内在“十二五”期间噪声污染水平和发展趋势,本文以北京市某典型区域作为研究对象,在收集大量相关资料与实测历史噪声数据的基础上,运用指数平滑法与灰色模型GM（1,1）对所选定研究区域的噪声污染水平与发展趋势进行预测与分析。研究结果表明：运用指数平滑法与灰色模型对研究区域声环境噪声污染预测是可行的,北京市在“十二五”期间声环境质量水平符合《声环境质量标准》（GB3096—2008）中的一类区域标准。     

吸能让位防冲支护结构与围岩协同作用体系研究*

为防治冲击地压危害,减小人员伤亡与经济损失,采用数值计算方法建立吸能让位防冲液压支架与围岩协同作用体系模型,计算支架和围岩组合体系在静载和冲击载荷作用下的受力状态。结果表明:静载条件下,受煤层影响巷道右侧拱肩位置应力值与塑性应变相对最大,此处最易发生破坏;吸能装置在静载条件下没有发生压缩变形,表明吸能装置不会影响支架正常工作;竖向冲击荷载条件下,受煤层结构影响巷道右侧拱肩处等效塑性应变值增大相对比较明显,吸能防冲支架中间液压柱与右侧液压柱水平位移变化相对最明显;冲击地压发生过程中,支架与围岩间相互作用力变化较大,总体可分为振动段、平稳段、上升段、波动段4个阶段。     

广州市秋季PM2.5中重金属的污染水平与化学形态分析

采用消解法和连续提取法分析了广州市秋季PM_2.5样品中10种重金属元素的总量和化学形态,对广州市PM_2.5中重金属的污染水平和生物有效性进行了评价.结果表明,广州市PM_2.5和重金属污染非常严重,其中PM_2.5日浓度高达0.083 3～0.190 0 mg·m^-3,为1997年美国EPA相应标准的1.3～2.9倍.PM_2.5中Cd、Pb、Zn、Cu和Mo的富集因子K>10,是典型的污染元素;而Ni、Mn、Co和Fe的K值为1～10,除部分来自人为活动外,主要还是自然作用来源.化学形态分析结果显示,超过80％的Al和Fe分布在有机质、氧化物与硫化物结合态和残渣态,而大部分Zn、Pb、Cd 和Cu分布在可溶态、可交换态、碳酸盐态、可氧化态和可还原态.生物有效性系数(K)分析结果说明,PM_2.5中重金属的生物有效性相对强弱顺序为：Cd>Zn>Pb>Cu>Mn>Mo>Co>Ni>Fe>Al.其中Cd、Zn和Pb的K>0.8,为生物可利用性元素;Cu、Mn、Mo、Co和Ni的K值在0.5左右,为潜在生物可利用性元素;Fe和Al的K<0.2,为生物不可利用性元素.     

Horizontal distribution and levels of heavy metals in the biggest snowstorm in a century in Shenyang, China

The horizontal distribution and levels of heavy metals in the biggest snowstorm in Shenyang since 1904 were investigated by analyzing 4 metals (As,Cd,Pb,and Cu) in a series of ultraclean samples collected from 17 sites distributed in different regions of the Shenyang area,China.The results showed that the concentrations of all the 4 heavy metals in snow from the industrial regions were high,up to 7.3 (As),2.2 (Cd),850.0 (Pb),and 0.197-20.2 (Cu)μg/kg,respectively.In the suburb,in contrast,their concentrat...     

Eco-environmental water demands for the Baiyangdian Wetland

In recent years, the hydrological characters of Baiyangdian Wetland have changed greatly, which, in turn, influence the biotic component, the structure and function of the wetland ecosystem. In order to determine the demands for water resources of ecological wetland system, a method of ecological water level coefficient was suggested to calculate the water resources demands for wetland environment use. This research showed that the minimum coefficient is 0.94 and the optimal coefficient is more than 1.10. According to these two coefficients, the ecological water level and water quantity can be estimated. The results indicate that the amount of the minimal and optimal eco-environmental water requirements are 0.87 × 10⁸ and 2.78 × 10⁸ m³ in average monthly, respectively, with the maximum eco-environmental water requirement in summer and the minimum in winter. The annual change of eco-environment water demand is in according with the climate change and hydrological characters. The method of ecological water level emphasizes that wetland ecosystem adapts to the hydrological conditions, so it can be used in practice well. __________ Translated from Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae, 2005, 25(8): 1,119–1,126 [译自: 环境科学学报]     

Developing Mechanism of Rubber-tea-chicken Agro-forestry Model in Tropical Area of China

Abstract

As a typical tropical agro-forestry ecosystem in Wenchang, Hainan Province, China, rational mechanisms of the rubber-tea-chicken eco-agricultural model were studied with the Solow technological level index, stability indicator, harmonizing coefficient, grey correlation coefficient and production dominance. This study focused on rational hierarchical structure, the limiting factors and optimal strategies of the model development based on model structure, resource conditions and external market demands. Results showed that rational mechanism of the rubber-tea-chicken ecosystem model mainly included technological contributions, leverage function of dominance component (livestock husbandry), stability of the model structure and harmony of its components, the model dominant product’s market demand and government’s supporting policies. The contributions of fund, technology, information and talent resources played an important role in improving sustainability and productivity of the agro-forestry model.