A field experiment characterizing variable detection rates during plant surveys

Surveys aimed at finding threatened and invasive species can be challenging due to individual rarity and low and variable individual detection rates. Detection rate in plant surveys typically varies due to differences among observers, among the individual plants being surveyed (targets), and across background environments. Interactions among these 3 components may occur but are rarely estimated due to limited replication and control during data collection. We conducted an experiment to investigate sources of variation in detection of 2 Pilosella species that are invasive and sparsely distributed in the Alpine National Park, Australia. These species are superficially similar in appearance to other yellow-flowered plants occurring in this landscape. We controlled the presence and color of flowers on target Pilosella plants and controlled their placement in plots, which were selected for their variation in cover of non-target yellow flowers and dominant vegetation type. Observers mimicked Pilosella surveys in the plots and reported 1 categorical and 4 quantitative indicators of their survey experience level. We applied survival analysis to detection data to model the influence of both controlled and uncontrolled variables on detection rate. Orange- and yellow-flowering Pilosella in grass- and heath-dominated vegetation were detected at a higher rate than nonflowering Pilosella. However, this detection gain diminished as the cover of other co-occurring yellow-flowering species increased. Recent experience with Pilosella surveys improved detection rate. Detection experiments are a direct and accessible means of understanding detection processes and interpreting survey data for threatened and invasive species. Our detection findings have been used for survey planning and can inform progress toward eradication. Interaction of target and background characteristics determined detection rate, which enhanced predictions in the Pilosella eradication program and demonstrated the difficulty of transferring detection findings into untested environments.     

面向设计的地铁车站防火安全韧性评价*

为提升地铁车站防火安全韧性,以设计方案为切入视角,基于防火安全韧性的吸收、抵抗、恢复和适应能力4个维度,构建基于ANP-熵权法面向设计的地铁防火安全韧性评价指标体系,运用逼近理想解法建立地铁车站防火安全韧性设计评价模型,通过3个已建地铁车站（青岛、沈阳、福州某地铁车站）的设计案例验证该模型的有效性和可行性。研究结果表明:3个应用案例中,沈阳某地铁车站设计防火安全韧性最高,福州某地铁车站设计防火安全韧性最低,需进一步提升防火安全能力。评价结果与各案例的实际运行阶段基本吻合,研究思路和结果对改善地铁车站的防火安全设计具有一定参考意义。     

建筑结构活荷载标准与灾害荷载设防水平 --使用年限的影响

旨在提供不同使用年限建筑结构对应的活荷载水平.分析了结构可靠度理论的特点,揭示了设计使用年限是结构可靠度的时间特征.应根据不同设计使用年限活荷载的超越概率等于常规设计荷载超越概率的原则确定活荷的载标准;通过建立不同设计使用期、不同设计基准期与活荷载取值的关系,给出了不同使用年限对应活荷载与灾害荷载设防水平.     

纸基复合包装中铝塑分离的湿法工艺条件研究

纸基复合包装中的纸基部分通过水力碎浆分离后可直接用于生产再生纸. 其铝塑部分由1层0.02～0.03 mm厚的铝箔和2层0.03～0.08 mm厚的低密度聚乙烯膜层压复合而成,主要对铝塑的湿法分离进行研究.比较了甲酸、乙酸、盐酸3种剥离剂的分离效果; 用甲酸作为铝塑剥离剂时, 考察了剥离剂的浓度、反应温度、液固比及破碎尺寸对铝塑分离的影响; 根据铝塑分离时间、分离率、铝的损失率等指标,通过正交试验及方差分析优化铝塑分离的工艺条件. 结果表明,甲酸分离铝塑的最优条件: 剥离剂浓度为4 mol/L, 反应温度为60 ℃,液固比为60 L/kg, 破碎尺寸为5 cm×5 cm. 在该条件下, 铝塑的分离率达到100%.      

高温蒸汽灭菌处理技术处置医疗废物工艺设计

高温蒸汽灭菌处理技术是近几年开发的新型医疗废物处置技术,并在全国部分地区得到了应用和推广。以西北某市医疗废物处置工程中高温蒸汽灭菌处理技术的应用为例,通过对其工程原理、系统组成、工艺流程等的分析论证共同探讨其工程原理和性能特点,为今后在工程实际中的运用提供参考。     

Impact of bias in predicted height on tree volume estimation: A case-study of intrinsic nonlinearity

Bias originating from intrinsic nonlinearity in nonlinear models is caused by excess curvature in the solution locus of parameter estimates derived from least squares procedures. Bias due to intrinsic nonlinearity varies according to sample size as well as model specification. This paper analyses consequences of fractionising data into smaller sub-samples. Based on measurements of stem diameter and total tree height from the first Danish national forest inventory, it is demonstrated how data splitting at random may cause the intrinsic nonlinear curvature to exceed the critical F-value. Application of a Taylor-series expansion shows that, for all practical purposes, the bias in predictions of individual tree volume (based on stem diameter and tree height) is negligible. To minimize residual variance, intrinsic curvature and, in turn, prediction bias, it is recommended that data be stratified according to site conditions, stand characteristics or other relevant criteria. Finally, the preferred model should exhibit close-to-linear behaviour.     

Studying ecological communities from a neutral standpoint: A review of models’ structure and parameter estimation

Neutral models provide an alternative to niche-based assembly rules of ecological communities by assuming that communities’ properties are shaped by the stochastic interplay between ecological drift, migration and speciation. The recent and ongoing interest about neutral assumptions has produced many developments on the theoretical side, with nevertheless limited echoes in terms of analyses of real-world data. The present review paper aims to help bridge the widening gap between modellers and field ecologists through two objectives. First, to provide a multi-criteria typology of the main neutral models, including those from population genetics that have not yet been transposed to ecology, by considering how the fundamental processes of ecological drift, speciation and migration are modelled and, specifically, how space is taken into account. Second, to review methods recently proposed to estimate models parameters from field data, a point that should be mastered to allow for broader applications.     

Spatio-temporal dissolved oxygen dynamics in the Orbetello lagoon by fuzzy pattern recognition

This paper models the dissolved oxygen (DO) dynamics in the Orbetello lagoon as a function of the physico-chemical and ecological system variables, including the submerged vegetation, nutrients, and hydrodynamics. It should be viewed as the concluding sequel to a previous paper describing the dynamics of the lagoon ecosystem [Giusti, E., Marsili-Libelli, S., 2006. An integrated model for the Orbetello lagoon ecosystem, Ecol. Model. 196, 379–394] by introducing the missing DO dynamics. The model considers the oxygen demand originating from the decay of carbonaceous and nitrogenous compounds, as well as photosynthesis and natural reaeration by winds and currents as the oxygen producing processes. With a fixed-parameter set the model could accurately reproduce each single circadian DO cycle, but in the long run it failed to extend this fit and could not accommodate the large DO fluctuations induced by the seasonal variability. In order to enhance the model flexibility, a fuzzy pattern recognition algorithm was designed to classify the circadian DO patterns into four typical behaviours, related to the season, and estimate the corresponding parameters, with the overall model output being a fuzzy combination of these sets. The paper discusses several methods to patch the parameter sets and compares their performance in tracking long-term DO variations. A final assessment of the model validity is obtained by incorporating the whole DO dynamics (model, fuzzy pattern recognition and parameter combination) into the general lagoon model and producing a consistently correct series of DO daily distributions over a yearly cycle. Thus the paper contains both a practical and a methodological aspect. The practical one is the linking of all the lagoon dynamics to the dissolved oxygen kinetics in order to clarify to what extent macroalgae and macrophytes influence the oxygen balance. The methodological aspect consists of extending the validity of short-term models to long time-horizons through a patching technique supported by fuzzy pattern recognition.     

堆肥系统的通风设计

对堆肥系统的两种不同风机选型方法及计算结果进行了比较.根据计算结果,方法二所选风机的风量、风压和功率都大于方法一所选的风机.对于堆肥系统,目前常用的风机选型方法为方法二.污泥堆肥中试的结果初步表明:方法二所选风机的风量偏大,而方法一所选风机的风量比较适宜.     

污水处理厂优化设计研究进展

本文对城市污水处理厂优化设计研究发展的历史作了回顾 ,对不同时期的几个系统模型作了简单的介绍 ,并提出了城市污水处理厂优化设计研究中几个有待进一步研究的问题。