基于点危险源的危险品运输路径优化研究

为合理选择危险品运输路径,降低危险品运输事故造成的损失,使道路危险品运输风险评价更符合实际情况,建立点危险源风险评价模型。模型综合考虑了运输时间和季节情况影响因子,在准确估算危险品泄漏事故毒害区域面积和后果损失的基础上,结合传统风险评价模型与最大最小模型进行求解。最后通过算例分析,检验该模型的实际运用,通过与传统求和方式所得的最优运输路径的对比,反映2种方式所求得的最优运输路径并不相同,同时也表明,用所建模型求得的运输路径风险值有更高的精确性。计算结果表明:该模型求得的某条运输路径的风险值等于该路径上风险值最大的路段的风险值,而不是该路径上所有路段的风险值之和。     

基于差异进化算法的爆破震速参数识别与优化

爆破震动衰减特性研究通常采用经典的萨道夫斯基公式实现。如何根据不同爆破条件合理选择公式中的场地系数K和衰减指数α是确定爆破控制参数的关键。实际工程分析中,通常采用可监测参数反演识别方法获取K和α值。以大连地铁2号线201标段接收井横通道爆破作业为背景,基于差异进化(DE)算法中缩放因子F和交叉概率Cr贡献值的合理选择,研究萨道夫斯基公式K和α的反演问题。首先,通过对算法中F和Cr不同取值对萨道夫斯基公式计算结果的影响分析,得到各向震速条件下收敛最小的F和Cr值;然后,根据F和Cr取值反演K和α参数。工程实践表明,基于DE算法反演识别得到的K和α值代入萨道夫斯基公式,计算得到的垂向、纬向、经向速度及合速度与实测速度变化趋势一致,并处在合理误差范围之内。     

Developing China's roadmap for air quality improvement: A review on technology development and future prospects

Air pollution control policies in China have been experiencing profound changes, highlighting a strategic transformation from total pollutant emission control to air quality improvement, along with the shifting targets starting from acid rain and NO_x emissions to PM_2.5 pollution, and then the emerging O₃ challenges. The marvelous achievements have been made with the dramatic decrease of SO₂ emission and fundamental improvement of PM_2.5 concentration. Despite these achievements, China has proposed Beautiful China target through 2035 and the goal of 2030 carbon peak and 2060 carbon neutrality, which impose stricter requirements on air quality and synergistic mitigation with Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions. Against this background, an integrated multi-objective and multi-benefit roadmap is required to provide decision support for China's long-term air quality improvement strategy. This paper systematically reviews the technical system for developing the air quality improvement roadmap, which was integrated from the research output of China's National Key R&D Program for Research on Atmospheric Pollution Factors and Control Technologies (hereafter Special NKP), covering mid- and long-term air quality target setting techniques, quantitative analysis techniques for emission reduction targets corresponding to air quality targets, and pathway optimization techniques for realizing reduction targets. The experience and lessons derived from the reviews have implications for the reformation of China's air quality improvement roadmap in facing challenges of synergistic mitigation of PM_2.5 and O₃, and the coupling with climate change mitigation.     

区域性应急物资储备级库间的协同选址模型研究

鉴于我国应急物资的多部门分散管理与分散储备的特点,研究了区域性应急物资储备体系构建中的应急物资储备级库协同选址问题。为了实现应急物资在不同级库间的协同储备管理与分散优化调拨,建立了应急物资储备级库选址的协同优化模型。用启发式算法通过MATLAB编程来实现,并用算例进行了验证。     

分布式水文模型的参数率定及敏感性分析探讨

参数率定与敏感性分析是分布式水文模型应用和发展中的难点问题,论文对当前典型的、应用比较成功的全局最优化参数率定和敏感性分析方法进行归纳和分析,包括:遗传算法(Genetic Algorithm)、SCE-UA算法(Shuffled Complex Evolution)、贝叶斯方法(Bayesian Method)、RSA方法(Regionalized Sensitivity Analysis)、GLUE方法(Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation)等等。并对计算机自动优化方法和人工参数调试方法的利弊进行讨论,展望了分布式水文模型的参数率定与敏感性分析的发展方向。     

Optimal design of compact and connected nature reserves for multiple species

When designing a conservation reserve system for multiple species, spatial attributes of the reserves must be taken into account at species level. The existing optimal reserve design literature considers either one spatial attribute or when multiple attributes are considered the analysis is restricted only to one species. We built a linear integer programing model that incorporates compactness and connectivity of the landscape reserved for multiple species. The model identifies multiple reserves that each serve a subset of target species with a specified coverage probability threshold to ensure the species' long‐term survival in the reserve, and each target species is covered (protected) with another probability threshold at the reserve system level. We modeled compactness by minimizing the total distance between selected sites and central sites, and we modeled connectivity of a selected site to its designated central site by selecting at least one of its adjacent sites that has a nearer distance to the central site. We considered structural distance and functional distances that incorporated site quality between sites. We tested the model using randomly generated data on 2 species, one ground species that required structural connectivity and the other an avian species that required functional connectivity. We applied the model to 10 bird species listed as endangered by the state of Illinois (U.S.A.). Spatial coherence and selection cost of the reserves differed substantially depending on the weights assigned to these 2 criteria. The model can be used to design a reserve system for multiple species, especially species whose habitats are far apart in which case multiple disjunct but compact and connected reserves are advantageous. The model can be modified to increase or decrease the distance between reserves to reduce or promote population connectivity.     

板筋结构强度计算及最优化设计

板筋结构是除尘器的重要结构形式,其结构的强度与除尘器的安全性有着密切的关系。介绍了板筋结构在除尘器应用中的荷栽、强度计算方法,并利用VB软件进行板筋结构最优化设计。     

Reallocating budgets among ongoing and emerging conservation projects

Conserving biodiversity and combating ecological hazards require cost-effective allocation of limited resources among potential management projects. Project priorities, however, can change over time as underlying social-ecological systems progress, novel priorities emerge, and management capabilities evolve. Thus, reallocation of ongoing investments in response to shifting priorities could improve management outcomes and address urgent demands, especially when additional funding is not available immediately. Resource reallocation, however, could incur transaction costs, require additional monitoring and reassessment, and be constrained by ongoing project commitments. Such complexities may prevent managers from considering potentially beneficial reallocation strategies, reducing long-term effectiveness. We propose an iterative project prioritization approach, based on marginal return-on-investment estimation and portfolio optimization, that guides resource reallocation among ongoing and new projects. Using simulation experiments in 2 case studies, we explored how this approach can improve efficacy under varying reallocation constraints, frequencies, costs, and rates of project portfolio change. Periodic budget reallocation could enhance the management of stochastically emerging invasive weeds in Australia and thus reduce the overall risk by up to 50% compared with a static budget. Reallocation frequency and the rate of new weed incursion synergistically increased the conservation gains achieved by allowing unconstrained reallocation. Conversely, budget reallocation would not improve the International Union for Conservation of Nature conservation status of threatened Australian birds due to slow rates of transition among conservation states; extinction risk could increase if portfolio reassessment is costly. Although other project prioritization studies may recommend periodic reassessment and reallocation, our findings revealed conditions when reallocation is valuable and demonstrated a structured approach that can help conservation agencies schedule and implement iterative budget-allocation decisions cost-effectively.     

低能耗脉冲喷吹袋式除尘器的三维数值模拟及工程应用

以袋式除尘器装置为研究对象,考虑射流偏移,建立了脉冲喷吹清洁的三维CFD数值模型,并进行实验验证;对喷嘴与文丘里管优化设计,修改数值模型,研究了低能耗下的脉冲喷吹清灰效果;在将改进的喷嘴与文丘里管进行工程应用的过程中,研究了其对大气粉尘排放的影响。结果表明,建立的三维CFD模型展现出了高瞬态行为和可压缩效应,即在射流中表现出涡流环与冲击单元现象。与孔喷嘴相比,改进后的喷嘴设计对射流偏移进行了调整,并且使滤袋内脉冲压力增加了5.1%~13.3%,提升了清灰效果。对比喉部直径为85 mm的文丘里管,无文丘里管的设计使得射流不易进入滤袋中,导致滤袋内脉冲压力降低了41.4%~46.3%,引起清灰效果的下降;减小文丘里管喉部直径,可以减少回流,提升滤袋内脉冲压力,改善清灰效果。对比原始装置,安装了改进喷嘴与文丘里管的袋式除尘器能明显降低大气粉尘排放,以上研究结果可为脉冲喷吹清灰除尘器的优化设计提供参考。     

低低温电除尘器烟风道流线型设计与分析

燃煤电厂烟风道用于输送烟气、冷风等介质,其设计优化不仅影响烟风道的流场分布均匀性、流量分配和系统阻力,而且会影响相关设备的运行状态。为了解决常规布置烟风道存在的流场均匀性较差、流量偏差大、阻力大等问题,结合某电厂1 000 MW机组配套低低温电除尘器进出口烟道,采用多尺度的研究方法,对常规烟风道和流线型烟风道进行设计与分析研究,对不同布置方式烟风道的流场分布均匀性、流量偏差、烟道阻力进行对比分析,并通过物理模型实验对CFD模拟的结果进行验证。CFD模拟结果与物模实验结果吻合性良好;流线型烟风道的布置较常规烟风道更简单,且流场分布均匀性、流量偏差、阻力都比常规烟风道有较大改善。采用流线型烟风道可起到较明显的节能降耗作用,为燃煤电厂烟风道优化设计提供参考。