基于景观格局演变的流域生态风险评价与管控——以贵州赤水河流域为例

以岩溶地区典型流域——赤水河流域为研究对象,以2000、2005、2008、2013年4期遥感数据为基础,结合Arc Map的空间分析功能,对流域景观格局演变过程进行分析,构建流域生态风险评价体系与管控措施。研究表明:2000~2013年赤水河流域无风险区、潜在风险区、轻度风险区分别由1.66、2.95、75.41 km~2上升至5.63、21.81、115.45 km~2,而中度、重度风险区却分别下降了35.6和40.27 km~2;历年生态风险演变格局为以城乡建设用地为中心,生态风险由轻度、中度、重度向潜在或无风险区过渡,轻度、中度、重度主要以点状扩散或增加,潜在及无风险区则连片分布于农田区和山地丘陵区;基于不同生态风险区的风险源管控对策,对建立流域生态风险预警机制、降低流域生态环境风险、维护流域生态服务功能具有十分重要的意义。     

畜牧业“碳排放”到“碳足迹”核算方法的研究进展

全球变暖趋势日益加剧,不仅影响农业可持续发展,而且威胁到人类生存。畜牧业碳排放因其在农业碳排放中乃至全球碳排放中占比较大而日益备受关注。准确核算畜牧业碳排放是制定切实可行的碳减排政策的前提,也为我国在气候变化下承担共同但有差别的减排责任提供话语权。本文基于研究范式的演进,对畜牧业碳排放到碳足迹核算方法的研究发展进行了系统梳理,研究表明,在学者的不断研究与质疑下,畜牧业碳排放到碳足迹的核算方法经历了从OECD核算法、IPCC系数法到生命周期法与投入-产出法的演变与完善,学术界认为区域异质性、养殖规模与管理方式均影响碳足迹;散养比规模化养殖产生更多的碳排放,舍饲比户外放牧排放更多的碳。畜牧业碳足迹核算能够更加全面地反映畜牧业全生命周期的碳排放情况,但由于研究假设、研究方法及研究样本等差异导致不同区域、不同畜产品的碳排放核算结果存在不确定性。运用生命周期法和投入-产出法对欧盟成员国畜牧业碳排放的核算结果基本一致,但运用IPCC系数法和全生命周期法对中国畜牧业碳排放核算中,牛、猪和羊的碳排放量排序结果不尽一致。鉴于核算结果的差异性,本研究对不同核算方法的起源、最早采用时间、特点、局限性等方面进行了归纳总结,并建议后续研究探讨基于生命周期评价的畜牧业碳足迹研究边界的延伸性,标准化畜牧业碳排放或碳足迹核算,避免学者重复核算畜牧业碳排放,以便深入展开畜牧业碳排放其他方面的研究。     

山东半岛城市群人居环境质量综合评价

随着中国城市化的高速发展,"城市病"问题日益突出,城市群作为统筹区域协调发展、建设宜居人居环境的重点地区,其人居环境发展状况备受关注。基于此,本文以山东半岛城市群为例,从人文环境、经济环境、社会环境和生态环境4个方面构建人居环境质量综合评价指标体系,利用人居环境质量计算模型和系统协调度模型,对其人居环境质量进行静态定量化评价和动态综合性评价。研究表明:(1)山东半岛城市群人居环境质量与社会环境的关联性最大,经济实力、基础设施水平时空发展不均衡、地域差异大,是制约山东半岛城市群人居环境发展的突出问题。(2)2000—2014年山东半岛城市群人居环境综合水平呈现良好的上升趋势,且增速较稳,增幅较小;各要素间的协调性均达到了中级协调等级;系统层的评价值除人文环境外,均呈现不同程度的波动式上升态势;领域层的评价值差异明显,发展不均衡。(3)城市群内部各城市人居环境综合质量水平逐步提高,且排名相对稳定;各要素间的协调度等级差异较小,但起伏变化较大;人居环境质量时空分异特征明显,呈现东西高、中间低的格局,内部级别差异显著,可分为较好、一般、较差、差4个等级。在今后的发展中,应针对山东半岛不同城市人居环境问题采取因时因地制宜的协调对策,创造整体最优人居环境。不仅要提高城市群的整体经济水平,提升城市群的短板建设,推动人居环境协调发展,还要符合新常态下城市发展与建设的要求,加快山东半岛城市群的区域创新体系构建,科学引领产业转型升级,优化产业结构,加强山东半岛城市规划研究与实施力度,探索"多规合一"模式。     

Does the Temporal Resolution of Precipitation Input Influence the Simulated Hydrological Components Employing the SWAT Model?

This study aimed to evaluate the influence of sub‐daily precipitation time steps on model performance and hydrological components by applying the Green and Ampt infiltration method using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Precipitation was measured at a resolution of 0.1 mm and aggregated to 5‐, 15‐, 30‐, and 60‐min time steps. Daily discharge data over a 10‐year period were used to calibrate and validate the model. Following a global sensitivity analysis, relevant parameters were optimized through an automatic calibration procedure using SWAT‐CUP for each time step. Daily performance statistics were almost equal among all four time steps (NSE ≈ 0.47). Discharge mainly consisted of groundwater flow (55%) and tile flow (42%), in reasonable proportions for the investigated catchment. In conclusion, model outputs were almost identical, showing simulations responded nearly independently of the chosen precipitation time step. This held true for (1) the selection of sensitive parameters, (2) performance statistics, (3) the shape of the hydrographs, and (4) flow components. However, a scenario analysis revealed that the precipitation time step becomes important when saturated hydraulic conductivities are low and curve numbers are high. The study suggests that there is no need in using precipitation time steps <1 h for lowland catchments dominated by soils with a low surface runoff potential if daily flow values are being considered. Editor's note : This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

地面浓度反推法计算石化企业无组织排放源强

对某石化企业储罐区和原油脱酸装置区的无组织排放非甲烷总烃进行监测,对监测数据进行Pearson相关分析,运用地面浓度反推法计算源强。实验结果表明：原油脱酸装置区各采样线浓度间的相关性好,反推出的源强较为准确,50,100,150 m采样线的反推源强非常接近,分别为21.68,21.60,19.76 t/a;而储罐区监测浓度的相关性不佳,该区域的非甲烷总烃无组织排放源可能不单一,不适用地面浓度反推法计算其源强。     

密云水库上游河流底栖动物群落结构与水质评价

于2013年5月至10月对密云水库上游河流中大型底栖无脊椎动物(以下简称底栖动物)进行了采样调查。结果表明,采集到的底栖动物隶属于4门10纲16目45科,其中以节肢动物种类最多,占总数的80%,且水生昆虫占总数的67%,出现频率最高的是节肢动物门蜉蝣目蜉蝣科的昆虫,出现频率达87%;从分布来看,白河流域采集到的底栖动物种类最多、密度最高,而潮河流域采集到的底栖动物生物量最大;以底栖动物为指示生物的水质评价结果显示,密云水库上游河流中50%采样点的水质为Ⅰ级(清洁),其余50%为Ⅱ级(轻微污染),水质整体较好,与现场生境调查和水质监测的结果相吻合。     

尾矿库溃坝风险评价方法的研究进展

溃坝风险评价作为管理者开展尾矿库风险管理的重要手段,对减少和防止尾矿库溃坝事故的发生,保障其安全运行具有重要意义。因此,进行尾矿库溃坝风险评价相关理论和方法的研究非常必要。通过大量的文献调研和分析,较系统回顾和总结了中国尾矿库溃坝风险评价方法的运用现状,并对不同方法存在的问题和局限性进行了探讨。在此基础上,指出了尾矿库溃坝风险评价未来的研究方向。     

The current state of knowledge of ecosystems and ecosystem services in Russia: A status report

This paper focusses on a conceptual overview of ways to address a comprehensive analysis of ecosystem services (ES) in a country as large and heterogeneous as Russia. As a first step, a methodology for assessing the services for the federal subjects of Russia was chosen, i.e., its constituent provinces and similar entities, in physical terms. Russia harbors a great diversity of natural conditions and ecosystems which are suppliers of ES, and likewise a variety of the socio-economic conditions that shape the demand for these services and their consumption. The methodological approach described permits several important tasks to be addressed: the evaluation of the degree of satisfaction of people’s needs for ES, the identification of ecological donor and acceptor regions, and zoning of the country’s territory for ES assessment. The next step is to prepare a prototype of a National Report on ES in Russia, for which we are presenting the planned structure.     

Twentieth century droughts and agriculture: Examples from impacts on soybean production in Kentucky,USA

Drought is a significant natural hazard that slowly evolves over time. Because of its character, drought is difficult to monitor and impacts are often poorly documented. Agriculture is one of the most sensitive sectors that are prone to drought. The objective of this research is to assess the impacts of drought on soybean production and revenue in Kentucky. Soybeans are one of Kentucky’s most important commodities. In this study, impacts of 1930–1931, 1940–1942, 1952–1955, 1987–1988, 1999–2000, and 2007 droughts were considered. It was found that over the recent years, up to 56 % of the revenue from soybeans was lost due to drought. During the first half of the twentieth century, revenue loss reached up to 77 %. This research is valuable to the general public as well as planners and policy makers. Proper documentation of impacts of past droughts will help identify drought vulnerabilities and results in better risk management and mitigation.     

城市生活垃圾处理方式生命周期评价的比较研究

生命周期评价理论与方法作为一种量化环境影响的工具,在诸多领域中得到了广泛的应用。在垃圾处理领域,生命周期评价最早在20世纪90年代得到应用。生命周期评价与城市生活垃圾处理的有效结合,将促进城市生活垃圾的减量化、资源化、无害化目标的实现。总结了生命周期评价理论与方法在城市生活垃圾处理中的应用现状。对国内不同城市生活垃圾处理方式环境影响因子进行比较分析,诸如全球变暖潜力、酸化潜力和富营养化潜力等因子。针对其目标范围定义、数据收集、评价方法的选择、结果解释及工艺改进等方面指出了目前研究的局限性和不足。并对未来城市生活垃圾处理生命周期评价的发展方向进行展望。