石油安全指标体系与综合评价

为科学评价我国石油安全的程度,从国内资源禀赋、国内生产能力、国际市场可得性和国家应急保障能力等4个方面,设计了石油安全评价指标体系。采用德尔菲法、主成分分析法,选取储采比、储量替代率、石油消费对外依存度、石油进口集中度、国际原油价格和国内石油储备水平等6个个指标,构成一个新的综合指标:石油安全度,用其对我国石油安全形势进行定量评价。将石油安全度的安全警戒划分为五级:I级1～0.8,基本安全;II级0.8～0.6,弱安全;III级0.6～0.4,不安全;Ⅳ级0.4～0.2,很不安全;V级0.2以下,严重不安全。1993-2004年,我国石油安全度为0.54～0.75,处于弱安全到不安全之间。     

Digital PCR: a powerful new tool for noninvasive prenatal diagnosis?

Recent reports have indicated that digital PCR may be useful for the noninvasive detection of fetal aneuploidies by the analysis of cell-free DNA and RNA in maternal plasma or serum. In this review we provide an insight into the underlying technology and its previous application in the determination of the allelic frequencies of oncogenic alterations in cancer specimens. We also provide an indication of how this new technology may prove useful for the detection of fetal aneuploidies and single gene Mendelian disorders. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Preserving Population Allele Frequencies in Ex Situ Conservation Programs

Abstract: Optimization of contributions of parents to progeny by minimizing the average coancestry of the progeny is an effective strategy for maintaining genetic diversity in ex situ conservation programs, but its application on the basis of molecular markers has the negative collateral effect of homogenizing the allelic frequencies at each locus. Because one of the objectives of a conservation program is to preserve the genetic composition of the original endangered population, we devised a method in which markers are used to maintain the allele frequency distribution at each locus as closely as possible to that of the native population. Contributions of parents were obtained so as to minimize changes in allele frequency for a set of molecular markers in a population of reduced size. We used computer simulations, under a range of scenarios, to assess the effectiveness of the method in comparison with methods in which contributions of minimum coancestry are sought, either making use of molecular markers or genealogical information. Our simulations indicated that the proposed method effectively maintained the original distribution of allele frequencies, particularly under strong linkage, and maintained acceptable levels of genetic diversity in the population. Nevertheless, contributions of minimum coancestry determined from pedigree information but ignoring the genealogy previous to the conservation program, was the most effective method for maintaining allelic frequencies in realistic situations.     

煤与瓦斯突出一般规律定性定量分析研究

通过大量数据统计 ,定性和定量分析了煤与瓦斯突出与开采深度、巷道类型、地质构造、作业方式、突出预兆、煤层厚度等因素之间关系 ,总结出煤与瓦斯突出灾害的一般规律 ,这对提高突出矿井防突技术水平和安全管理 ,具有重要的指导意义。     

南海市耕地数量变化驱动力的定量分析

分析了南海市耕地数量变化的特点，并用定性与定量相结合的方法进一步探讨了耕地数量变化的驱动力。结果表明，南海市耕地数量的变化与珠江三角洲耕地数量变化的时间基本一致且与经济发展同步。经济发展、人口增长、基础设施建设及农业结构调整是耕地数量变化的主要驱动力。     

Polyoxometalates for photocatalytic degradation of aqueous dyestuff solutions and quantitative structure–property relationship study on photolysis rate constants

Polyoxometalate, K₆TiW₁₁O₃₉Sn·7H₂O (TiW₁₁Sn), was synthesized and characterized. TiW₁₁Sn and K₆ZrW₁₁O₃₉Sn·12H₂O (ZrW₁₁Sn) were evaluated for their photocatalytic degradation of triarylmethane (brilliant green and acid blue 9), bisazo (C.I. reactive black 5), and monoazo dyestuffs (C.I. reactive red 24, C.I. reactive red 194, and C.I. reactive orange 5) with natural sunlight in homogeneous aqueous solutions. TiW₁₁Sn and ZrW₁₁Sn effectively and photocatalytically decolorized the dyestuffs. The TiW₁₁Sn- and ZrW₁₁Sn-mediated photocatalytic degradation of the dyestuffs involved a pseudo-first-order reaction and was modeled by Langmuir–Hinshelwood-type kinetics. The observed pseudo-first-order rate constants (K^/) of triarylmethane dyestuffs were generally bigger than that of the azo dyestuffs. Quantitative structure–property relationship models of the K^/ of the dyestuffs were developed using partial least-square regression. The cumulative variance of the dependent variable explained by the partial least-square components was > 0.753 for each optimal model. This value indicated that the model had good predictive ability and robustness. The K^/ values of the dyestuffs were related to the energy of the lowest unoccupied molecular orbital, and the most positive net atomic charges on a sulfur atom of dyestuffs. The linear correlation coefficients between the predicted and experimental values were all > 0.9950.     

随机性混合数据评价技术的方法研究

在城市和环境规划等方案评价中,如何综合利用定性和定量信息是人们较为关注的问题。本文首先将方案评价中常见的定性信息分为三大类,并用数学式来描述各类定性信息,在此基础上,运用随机处理的方法对定性信息进行处理后与定量信息进行综合,以求得各个方案的优劣排序概率,并由此概率确定最优方案。这种方法克服了以往同类方法只能利用定性信息中的排序信息的缺点,从而使得方案评价更客观。最后,本文给出了方法应用的实例。     

Norwegian Meteorological Institute’s real-time dispersion model snap (Severe Nuclear Accident Program): Runs for ETEX and ATMES II experiments with different meteorological input

The Norwegian Meteorological Institute (DNMI) has developed and implemented for operational use a real-time dispersion model Severe Nuclear Accident Program (SNAP) with capability for predicting concentrations and depositions of the radioactive debris from large accidental releases. SNAP has been closely linked to DNMI’s operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) models.How good are these predictions? Participation in ETEX has partly answered this question. DNMI used SNAP with LAM50S giving meteorological input for these real-time dispersion calculations. LAM50S Limited Area Model with 50 km grid squareswas DNMI’s operational NWP model in 1994 when ETEX took place.In this article we report on how SNAP performed in the first of the ETEX releases in near-real-time mode, using LAM50S—and in hindcast mode for ATMES II, using “ECMWF 1995: ETEX Data set (ATMES II)”as meteorological input data. These two input data sets came from NWP models with quite different characteristics but with similar resolution in time and space.The results from these dispersion simulations matched closely. Deviations early in the simulation period shrank to insignificant differences later on. Since both input data sets were based on “weather analysis” and had similar resolution in space and time, SNAP described the dispersion of the released material very similar in these two simulations.