危险品区多米诺效应的风险分析

根据多米诺效应的特点,提出了一种针对危险品区域的多米诺效应的风险分析方法.通过多米诺效应事故场景的辨识、设备的概率损坏模型和多米诺分析技术,分析区域内所有危险设备的多米诺效应风险指数和设备在多米诺事故链中的传播作用,定量分析多米诺事故后果.通过该方法可以得到区域内设备的多米诺效应风险指数和多米诺事故的后果风险.通过该方法可建立起区域的安全防范措施,从而有效预防潜在的多米诺效应,降低事故风险.     

松花江哈尔滨段藻类植物分布及其与环境因子的关系

松花江哈尔滨段流域是哈尔滨市重要的水源地,也是松花江重要的组成部分,其生态环境问题一直受到国内外学者密切关注,且近年来松花江哈尔滨段水体改善程度较为明显,流域内水体变化程度越来越受到相关学者和民众的重视,研究松花江哈尔滨段水体变化趋势意义明显。该研究的创新性在于运用典范对应分析(CCA)探究藻类植物与环境因子变化的关系,并运用欧洲硅藻数据库(EDDI)验证主要环境因子的准确性。国内现行的一些常规理化指标单独评价水体质量较为单一,不能更好地满足现行的水环境管理要求,并且对于水环境的变化反应效果及准确度较低。该研究运用相关理化指标数据和藻类植物的种类及丰度等的年际变化,实现从单一理化指标评价改善为理化和生物指标双重评价,从而更加具体地反映出松花江哈尔滨段水体状况的变化趋势。     

QSAR models for predicting the toxicity of halogenated phenols to Tetrahymena

Halogenated phenols are industrial pollutants which may cause serious damage to the environment. In this work, a two-dimensional (2D) and two three-dimensional (3D) quantitative structure–activity relationship models for the toxicity prediction of halogenated phenols in Tetrahymena were developed. The structural factors that mainly influence toxicity were explored, agreeing with previously reported data. The results obtained with the 3D model were in agreement with those obtained with the 2D model. According to our findings, several new molecules with different predicted activities were designed.     

Identification of lactic acid bacteria isolated from wine using real-time PCR

Different lactic acid bacteria strains have been shown to cause wine spoilage, including the generation of substances undesirable for the health of wine consumers. The aim of this study was to investigate the occurrence of selected species of heterofermentative lactobacilli, specifically Lactobacillus brevis, Lactobacillus hilgardii, and Lactobacillus plantarum in six different Slovak red wines following the fermentation process. In order to identify the dominant Lactobacillus strain using quantitative (real time) polymerized chain reaction (qPCR) method, pure lyophilized bacterial cultures from the Czech Collection of Microorganisms were used. Six different red wine samples following malolactic fermentation were obtained from selected wineries. After collection, the samples were subjected to a classic plate dilution method for enumeration of lactobacilli cells. Real-time PCR was performed after DNA extraction from pure bacterial strains and wine samples. We used SYBR® Green master mix reagents for measuring the fluorescence in qPCR. The number of lactobacilli ranged from 3.60 to 5.02 log CFU mL^?1. Specific lactobacilli strains were confirmed by qPCR in all wine samples. The number of lactobacilli ranged from 10³ to 10⁶ CFU mL^?1. A melting curve with different melting temperatures (T_m) of DNA amplicons was obtained after PCR for the comparison of T_m of control and experimental portions, revealing that the most common species in wine samples was Lactobacillus plantarum with a T_m of 84.64°C.     

基于模糊故障树的海洋立管破坏失效风险分析

针对海洋立管破坏失效事故资料不完备及发生概率缺乏精确值的现状,提出了基于模糊故障树的海洋立管破坏失效风险分析方法。通过对现有的海洋立管破坏失效事故原因的统计分析,建立了以"海洋立管破坏失效"为顶事件的故障树。在对故障树进行定性分析的基础上,得到了引起海洋立管破坏失效的105个各阶最小割集,确定了海洋立管发生破坏失效的主要模式。采用专家判断法与模糊集理论结合的方法对故障树进行了定量分析,评估了故障树底事件的发生概率,并计算了故障树顶事件的发生概率。通过模糊故障树分析得到了海洋立管系统的薄弱环节,从而可以对其采取有效措施,以降低事故发生概率及提高系统可靠性。     

Review on Quantitative Research Methods of Regional Sustainable Development in China

Since the 1990s, with the in-depth study and understanding of sustainable development, quantitative study of regional sustainable development (RSD) was increasingly hot in China. Based on quantitative study of RSD from Core Periodical in China National Knowledge Infrastructure (1992–2008), statistical analysis on the annual distribution, periodicals distribution and changes of the distribution were made. And from perspectives of social–economic, ecological, systematic and emerging methods, the course, probl...     

阜康市休闲农业资源定量评价初探

休闲农业资源评价是休闲农业规划与设计的基础工作。本文采用层次分析法,构建了包括资源条件、开发条件、旅游条件三方面的休闲农业资源定量评价模型并计算分析相应权重,最后选取同属乌鲁木齐都市圈中间层的呼图壁县、昌吉市和五家渠市进行评价研究。通过分析和计算得出:资源条件因素权重最大为0.7306,其次是开发条件因素为0.1884,最后是旅游条件因素为0.0810;呼图壁县、昌吉市、五家渠市和阜康市休闲农业开发总得分分别为67.8、84.7、78.4、82.4,阜康市居第二位,开发潜力大。阜康市农业资源丰富,交通便捷,区位条件优良,经济和旅游业发展较快,具备发展休闲观光农业的优势。     

岩石破坏失稳的声发射响应与损伤定量表征研究

为了探索在外载荷作用下岩石的损伤演化规律及声发射响应特征,实现损伤程度的定量表征,以标准岩石试件为研究对象,采用RMT-301岩石力学试验系统和DS5-8B全信息声发射仪,开展单轴加载条件下岩石破坏全过程的声发射(AE)试验研究,根据声发射参数、声发射源三维定位、声发射能量密度和岩石力学分析表征其破坏形态,再现岩石裂隙孕育、发展和贯通过程,揭示岩石破坏规律、能量密度分布特征、裂隙空间演化和AE时序参数;以时间为中间变量,建立声发射累计振铃计数和应力、应变及损伤变量的耦合关系;基于岩石损伤演化方程,进一步建立声发射累积能量和应力、应变的定量模型。研究结果对揭示岩石破坏机制、区分岩体强度具有指导意义,为矿山煤岩动力灾害的预测预警提供一定理论支撑。     

区域定量风险评价方法及其在化工园区中的运用

介绍区域定量风险评价的基本原理和评价指标,建立风险计算模型,给出定量风险评价的程序,提出区域定量风险评价方法;利用开发的个人风险计算软件,对某化工园区中区域风险进行了评价;通过分析计算,给出了该区域的个人风险等值线分布图和社会风险图;结果表明,园区中3家企业的重大危险源需进一步采取措施降低风险,使该化工园区的个人风险和社会风险符合推荐标准的要求。该方法为全面了解化工园区风险提供了理论依据,对化工园区装置的布置和科学规划具有重要的指导意义。