我国泥石流危险度评价研究:回顾与展望

综述了自20世纪80年代末我国开展泥石流危险度评价研究以来,4个主要不同时期所用的评价方法及其发展过程,介绍了最新的单沟泥石流危险度评价技术及其改进的评价因子转换函数赋值新方法。首次提出了泥石流危险度评价的理论公式及其数值解,同时也指出了泥石流危险度理论研究方面所面临的困难。目前,现有的泥石流危险度评价方法是有效的和实用的,进一步的工作宜放在评价方法的可靠性研究上,同时要大力开展泥石流规模和发生频率相互关系的研究,以期达到最终用理论公式来评价泥石流危险度的目的,并实现现状评价和预测评价能同时进行的目标。     

STRUCTURAL EQUATION MODELING OF DYNAMICS OF NITRATE CONTAMINATION IN GROUND WATER1

ABSTRACT: Most research on the temporal aspect of nitrate pollution in water resources has focused on surface water. Comprehensive studies on the dynamics of nitrate in ground water are lacking, especially on a drainage basin scale and for relatively long periods of time. In this study, structural equation modeling is applied in investigating the influences of climate, hydrology, and nitrogen management in agricultural production on nitrate concentration in the Big Spring Basin, Iowa, over a 10-year period. The study shows that for given hydrogeological settings, nitrogen management practices and climate are the two most important factors that affect nitrate dynamics. The long-term trend of nitrate is closely related to the nitrogen input primarily determined by management practices. The potential effects of nitrogen management, however, are contingent on the variations of climate. The improvements in water quality (reduced nitrate concentration and loads) in relation to improved nitrogen management are often overshadowed by the impact of climate, especially in extremely dry or wet years. The variations of climate and hydrology have much greater impacts on the nitrate dynamics than the changes in nitrogen input. This study reveals significant seasonal variation in the relations between nitrate concentration and influencing factors, which is also closely related to the seasonal variation in climate. Assessment of management practices and resultant water quality should consider the impact of short- and long-term climate dynamics.     

USING CURVE NUMBERS TO DETERMINE BASELINE VALUES OF GREEN-AMPT EFFECTIVE HYDRAULIC CONDUCTIVITIES1

ABSTRACT: Since the trend in infiltration modeling is currently toward process-based approaches such as the Green-Ampt equation, more emphasis is being placed on methods of determining appropriate parameters for this approach. The SCS curve number method is an accepted and commonly used empirical approach for estimating surface runoff, and is based on numerous data from a variety of sources. The time and expense of calibrating process-based infiltration parameters to measured data are often prohibitive. This study uses curve number predictions of runoff to develop equations to estimate the “baseline” hydraulic conductivities (K_b) for use in the Green-Ampt equation. Curve number predictions of runoff were made for 43 soils. K_b values in the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model were then calibrated so that the annual runoff predicted by WEPP was equal to the curve number predictions. These calibrated values were used to derive an equation that estimated K_b based on the percent sand, percent clay, and cation exchange capacity of the soil. Estimated values of K_b from this equation compared favorably with measured values and values calibrated to measured natural runoff plot data. WEPP predictions of runoff using both optimized and estimated values of K_b were compared to curve number predictions of runoff and the measured values. The WEPP predictions using the optimized values of K_b were the best in terms of both average error and model efficiency. WEPP predictions using estimated values of K_b were shown to be superior to predictions obtained from the curve number method. The runoff predictions all tended to be biased high for small events and low for larger events when compared to the measured data. Confidence intervals for runoff predictions on both an annual and event basis were also developed for the WEPP model.     

THE APPLICABILITY OF MORTON'S AND PENMAN'S EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ESTIMATES IN RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELING1

ABSTRACT: Estimates of the upper constraint on actual evapotranspiration are required as input data in the majority of rainfall-runoff models. This paper compares and discusses the applicability of Penman's potential evapotranspiration estimates and Morton's wet environment evapotranspiration estimates in rainfall-runoff modeling applications. Morton's wet environment evapotranspiration depends only on the atmospheric variables and is the estimate of evapotranspiration that would occur when water supply is not limiting. It is a conceptually more correct representation of the upper constraint on actual evapotranspiration compared to Penman's potential evapotranspiration which is dependent on the water supply to the soil-plant surfaces. Although Penman's potential evapotranspiration and Morton's wet environment evapotranspiration are two different quantities, comparison of the two estimates using data from different climatic regions throughout Australia indicate that they provide similar magnitudes of the upper limit of actual evapotranspiration at moderate climatic conditions when reliable estimates are required in rainfall-runoff models. The two estimates can therefore be used interchangeably in rainfall-runoff modeling applications.     

A STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY FOR PREDICTING THE POLLUTANTS IN A RIVER1

Urban and industrial areas continue to expand and consequently, to create serious water pollution problems to natural streams. The need for the development of accurate, reliable, and sensitive water quality prediction models is most desirable. The first objective of this research is to set guidelines for dividing a natural stream into more or less independent reaches based on some criteria. The second objective is to obtain the predicting equations of the water pollutants in a selected stream. The preliminary phase of this research evaluated water quality data sampled from the Pearl River which flows southwest and then turns south through the states of Mississippi and Louisiana. This evaluation served as guidelines to divide the total river basin into reaches (subsystems) appropriate to the objective of this research. Subsequent to this subsystem assignment, a stepwise multiple regression FORTRAN program was used to regress the pollutants (dependent variables) for both time and space on their water characteristics (independent variables). Based on the results obtained, the proposed statistical approach provides a practical tool for developing regression equations for the purpose of water pollutants' prediction.     

Role of wetlands in reducing phosphorus loading to surface water in eight watersheds in the Lake Champlain Basin

A landscape-level approach was applied to eight rural watersheds to assess the role that wetlands play in reducing phosphorus loading to surface waters in the Lake Champlain Basin. Variables summarizing various characteristics of wetlands within a watershed were calculated using a geographic information system and then compared to measured phosphorus loading through multiple regression analyses. The inclusion of a variable based on the area of riparian wetlands located along low- and medium-order streams in conjunction with the area of agricultural and nonwetland forested lands explained 88% of the variance in phosphorus loading to surface waters. The best fit model coefficients (P_load = 0.86Ag + 0.64For – 30Ripwet + 160) suggest that a hectare of riparian wetland may be many times more important in reducing phosphorus than an agricultural hectare is in producing phosphorus. These results provide additional support for the concept that protection of riparian wetlands is an important management strategy for controlling stream water quality in multiuse landscapes.     

人体温度调节的计算机数值模拟

在研究人体温度调节生理机制的基础上，通过必要的近似简化方法，对一维人体温度调节数学模型进行某些改进，用控制容积法推导出微分方程的有限差分格式，并利用相应的计算程序对人体温度调节进行数值模拟     

民用机场消防员应急保障能力研究

为提高民用机场消防员应急保障能力,提升机场运行保障水平,需明确机场消防员应急保障能力的影响因素。根据专家访谈及文献查阅,筛选出了影响民用机场消防员应急保障能力的18个要素。通过问卷调查收集数据,利用SPSS 22. 0对数据进行信度分析、效度分析及因子分析,并构建假设模型。利用AMOS 24. 0软件对假设模型进行验证并确定各影响因素权重。结果表明,对民用机场消防员应急保障能力影响最大的是基础素质,然后依次是专业技能、专业知识、处境意识。最后在B机场选取两组消防员进行实测,试验组消防员应急演练的综合评价成绩为3. 792,对照组的成绩为3. 413。此外试验组消防员各项能力的评价水平均高于对照组,这表明模型在提升机场消防员的应急保障能力方面可发挥重要作用。     

企业系统内部安全信息共享过程影响因素分析

为探讨安全信息共享过程及其影响因素,增强企业对安全信息的使用能力,并进一步为提升企业的安全生产水平提供理论依据。基于安全系统和安全信息的研究进展,从安全系统的内部动态联系进行分析,提出加强企业系统内部安全信息共享过程研究的重要性。同时,借鉴安全信息流动和认知的相关研究,分析安全信息的共享过程,进一步构建安全信息流动过程模型,提炼出影响企业系统内部安全信息共享过程的安全信息特性、安全信息质量、安全信息环境、安全信息能力和安全素质5个因素,并逐层分析,构建企业系统内部安全信息共享过程影响因素的测量指标体系。应用问卷调查和结构方程建模方法,构建企业系统内部安全信息共享过程二阶验证性因素分析模型,对影响因素进行分析。结果表明,提出的5个主要因素对安全信息共享过程具有重要影响,其中安全信息素质的影响最大。     

Structural equation modelling of lower back pain due to whole-body vibration exposure in the construction industry

Whole-body vibration (WBV) exposure is a health hazard among workers, causing lower back pain (LBP) in the construction industry. This study examines key factors affecting LBP due to WBV exposure using exploratory factor analysis and structural equation modelling. The results confirm five key factors (equipment, job related, organizational, personal, social context) with their 17 associated items. The organizational factor is found the most important, as it influences the other four factors. The results also show that appropriate seat type, specific training programme, job rotation, workers’ satisfaction and workers’ physical condition are crucial in reducing LBP due to WBV exposure. Moreover, provision of new machines without proper training and good working condition might not help reduce LBP due to WBV exposure. The results help the construction companies to better understand key factors affecting LBP due to WBV exposure, and to plan for a better health improvement programme.