污水厂出水COD预测模型的对比分析

根据污水厂日报表中的数据分别建立了ARMA、逐步回归分析、基于回归分析的神经网络模型和基于时间序列分析的神经网络模型,通过比较选择了基于时间序列分析的神经网络模型作为对污水厂出水COD的预测模型,其平均预测精度为85%,取得了满意的预测结果,有利于克服根据在线监测调整工艺参数的滞后性的缺陷,保证出水水质.     

阿伦尼乌斯公式在弹箭贮存寿命评估中的应用

以某型号导弹舵机橡胶密封材料为例,阐述了弹箭贮存寿命定量评估的方法,分析了科学确定失效判据的重要性,介绍了自然环境试验和实验室加速老化试验在弹箭贮存寿命定量评估中的应用.重点论述了阿伦尼乌斯公式应用于弹箭贮存寿命定量评估的本质,详细说明了阿伦尼乌斯公式适用的反应及温度,强调了应用阿伦尼乌斯公式定量评估弹箭贮存寿命必须进...     

Transition to large-scale organic vegetable production in the Salinas Valley, California

Studying the management strategies suited to large-scale organic production, particularly during the mandated 3-year transition period from conventional management, is a unique research challenge. Organic production traditionally relies on small, diverse plantings and complex management responses to cope with soil fertility and pest pressures, so research should represent decision-making options of an organic grower at the farm scale. This study analyzes crop, soil, pest and management changes during the organic transition period on two ranches (40 and 47 ha) in the Salinas Valley, California in cooperation with a large conventional vegetable producer, Tanimura and Antle, Inc. Permanent transects were established across the two ranches at the onset of adoption of organic practices, and soil and plants were sampled at harvest of almost all crops, while all management operations were recorded by the co-operator. The 10 ha blocks were divided into many small plantings, and 17 different cash crop and cover crop species were planted during the transition period. Management inputs consisted of a range of organic fertilizers and amendments, sprinkler and drip irrigation, cultivation and hand-hoeing, and several types of organic pesticides. Results from the 3-year period followed these general trends: increase in soil biological indicators (microbial biomass and arbuscular mycorrhizae), low soil nitrate pools, adequate crop nutrients, minor disease and weed problems, and sporadic mild insect damage. Multivariate statistical analyses indicated that some crops and cultivars consistently produced higher yields than others, relative to the maximum yield for a given crop. Multi-factor contingency tables showed clear differences in insect and disease damage between crop taxa. Although Tanimura and Antle, Inc. used some of the principles of organic farming (e.g., crop diversity, crop rotation, and organic matter (OM) management), they also relied on substitution-based management, such as fertigation with soluble nutrients, initially heavy applications of organic pesticides, and use of inputs derived from off-farm sources. Their initial production of a large number of crop taxa in small plantings at staggered intervals proved to be an effective strategy for avoiding risks from low yields or crop failure and allowed them to move towards a smaller number of select, successful crops towards the end of the transition. This study demonstrates the feasibility of large-scale producers to transition to organic practices in a manner that was conducive to both production goals and environmental quality, i.e., increased soil C pools, low soil nitrate, and absence of synthetic pesticides.     

聚丙烯酸-聚偏氟乙烯共混膜对Cu^2＋吸附特性的研究

应用热诱导聚合和相转移技术,制备了具有离子交换性能的聚丙烯酸-聚偏氟乙烯（PAA—PVDF）共混膜,采用XPS和SEM表征了PAA—PVDF共混膜的结构和组成,分析了PAA—PVDF共混膜对水溶液中Cu^2＋的吸附性能,研究了共混膜对Cu^2＋的吸附热力学和吸附动力学．结果表明,动力学吸附过程符合准二级动力学方程,等温吸附过程符合Langmuir模型．吸附过程的平均吸附能为8—16kJ／mol,表明该吸附过程为离子交换反应．热力学参数△G^0〈0、△H^0〉0、△S^0〉0,证实了吸附过程为自发的吸热过程。PAA—PVDF共混膜经吸附／脱附4次循环后,对废水中Cu^2＋的吸附量大于0．025mg／cm^2,脱附率超过95％。PAA—PVDF共混膜具有优良的吸附／脱附性能,良好的稳定性和潜在的应用前号。     

鄂尔多斯市1988-2000年土壤水力侵蚀与土地利用时空变化关系

土地利用是引起土壤侵蚀的重要驱动过程。基于1988年和2000年TM影像数据和气候、土壤、植被及DEM等数据,运用通用的土壤流失预报方程（RUSLE）,对鄂尔多斯市1988-2000年间的土壤水力侵蚀进行定量估算,揭示期间水力侵蚀的时空变化特点,并对土地利用类型与土壤侵蚀的关系进行分析。结果显示：1988-2000年间,研究区土壤水力侵蚀时空变化较为明显。时间变化上侵蚀强度明显减弱,除了微度侵蚀从53.16%剧增至81.24%以外,中度、强度、极强度和剧烈侵蚀类型均有较大幅度的下降;空间变化亦很明显,2000年与1988年相比,剧烈侵蚀只有准格尔旗东南部还有少量分布,强度侵蚀和极强度侵蚀主要分布在准格尔旗境内。土地利用方式对土壤侵蚀有明显的影响,高覆盖草地和水域的土壤侵蚀强度较小。此外,不同土地利用类型的平均土壤侵蚀模数和土壤强度指数均有大幅度的下降。其中未利用地的下降幅度最大（68.14%）,其次为低覆盖度草地（64.09%）,耕地的下降幅度最小（49.62%）。研究结果表明,鄂尔多斯土壤水力侵蚀治理的重点区域是东北部,改变土地利用方式,增加水土保持工程措施,加强采矿迹地的修复重建等是有效防治土壤水力侵蚀的重要措施。     

东北地区参考蒸散量的变化特征及其成因分析

蒸散是水分运动过程中地表热量平衡和水分平衡的组成部分,是影响气候变化的重要一项。进行蒸散量变化的研究,对了解气候变化、探讨水分循环变化规律具有十分重要的意义。论文利用东北地区124个气象站1961—2007年的日气象数据,采用Penman-Monteith方程计算了参考蒸散量,分析了参考蒸散量的变化趋势及其变化原因。结果表明,在这47 a间,东北地区年平均气温以0.38℃/(10 a)的趋势递增,但是参考蒸散量总体上却以4.4 mm/(10 a)的速度递减。在地区分布上,三分之二的地区参考蒸散量呈下降趋势,显著下降的地区集中在辽宁朝阳地区,三分之一的地区参考蒸散量呈上升趋势,主要集中在辽宁南部和吉林东部地区。对有关各气象因子分析表明,影响参考蒸散量的主要因子为日照时数和风速。     

Spatial and temporal patterns of soil erosion in the Tibetan Plateau from 1984 to 2013北大核心CSCD

Soil erosion has a critical effect on ecological security and socioeconomics, which may deteriorate ecosystem services and common human well-being. The revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) was applied to assess soil erosion from 1984 to 2013 in the Tibetan Plateau and analyzed the temporal and spatial variation of soil erosion intensity. Furthermore, the temporal and spatial variation rates of soil erosion were explored across different ecosystems. The results indicated that the annual soil erosion fuctuated in the Tibetan Plateau, the soil erosion intensity decreased from south to north, and the most serious soil erosion was mainly distributed in the southern Tibetan Plateau (Xigaze and Changdu regions, Lhasa, and north of the Shannan region). The soil erosion intensity was higher in shrub, alpine meadow, and sparse vegetation ecosystems. The highest soil erosion was found in alpine meadow (2.17 × 1010 t), followed by alpine grassland (1.59 × 1010 t) and sparse vegetation (1.30 × 1010 t) ecosystems. Meanwhile, although the most serious soil erosion intensity was found in the regions of 3 000-4 000 m altitude, the soil erosion was mainly observed in the regions of 4 000-5 000 m altitude. In the three most recent decades, annual soil erosion decreased at a rate of-1.78 × 108 t/a. Additionally, soil erosion mainly increased in south of the Qiangtang Plateau and in the periphery of the Qaidam basin. Decreased soil erosion was mainly found along the Hengduan Mountains, central Himalayas. Although the increased annual normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) had positive effects for soil protection, changes in soil erosion was mainly controlled by the change of annual precipitation. Thus, the fragility of ecological systems and increased rainfall erosivity accounted for the obviously increased soil erosion in the alpine grassland ecosystem (1.19 × 10 t/a). However, increased ecosystem stability and decreased rainfall erosivity contributed to the decreased soil erosion in forest and shrub ecosystems, by-0.77 × 10 t/a and-1.65 × 10 t/a, respectively. The slightly decreased rainfall erosivity accounted for a decrease of soil erosion in the sparse vegetation ecosystem (-0.44 × 10 t/a). Meanwhile, soil erosion has decreased in the alpine meadow ecosystem over the past 30 years, which may owing to the relatively higher NDVI that neutralized the increase of rainfall erosivity to some extent. This study revealed serious soil erosion regions and ecosystems in the Tibetan Plateau and explored possible reasons for variations in soil erosion in different ecosystems, which may provide a scientific reference for soil erosion conservation and control in the near future. © 2018 Science Press. All rights reserved.     

基于结构方程模型的农户清洁能源应用行为决策研究

推进农户应用清洁能源对于促进农村生态建设至关重要。本文将农户清洁能源应用行为视为是一个"外部情境因素-内部心理因素-农户清洁能源应用行为"的过程,基于环境行为理论和技术接受模型,构建出农户清洁能源应用行为影响因素概念模型。利用江西省农户的调查数据,运用结构方程模型从农户购买行为和使用行为两个维度,研究农户清洁能源应用行为的影响因素,以及这些因素的作用机理。研究表明,情境因素(经济激励政策、自愿活动、宣传教育、清洁能源产品属性)以农户感知为中介,进而正向影响农户清洁能源使用行为,从众心理、行为便利性直接正向影响农户清洁能源使用行为;生态价值观和感知因素在经济激励政策与农户清洁能源购买行为之间起到部分中介效应,行为便利对农户清洁能源购买行为有直接正向影响;相对于经济激励政策,农户自愿活动对提升农户生态价值观会更有效;在影响农户感知的四个情景因素(经济激励政策、自愿活动、宣传教育、清洁能源产品属性)中,自愿活动对农户感知的正向影响程度最大;对农户清洁能源购买行为正向影响程度最大的是经济激励政策,对农户清洁能源使用行为正向影响程度最大的是行为便利性。基于上述结论,提出以下政策建议:政府要扩大清洁能源产品补贴的范围,加大农户购买清洁能源产品的补贴力度,降低农户购买清洁能源产品的成本;加强清洁能源知识、环境保护的宣传教育,提升农村居民的环境责任感,增强农村居民的生态环境价值观;完善农村清洁能源应用服务体系,提升农户应用清洁能源的易用性感知;充分发挥清洁能源示范村的辐射效应,增强农户应用清洁能源有用性感知;引导基层村干部、党员或环保意识强的农户率先应用清洁能源,在从众心理作用下,促使更多的农户应用清洁能源。     

结构方程模型在城市环境管理中的应用

针对城市经济增长与环境污染负荷之间的耦合关系,选取45个样本城市,采用2004年的截面数据,开发了结构方程模型研究环境污染负荷、环境基础设施、土地利用、工业化程度和经济发展5个结构因子之间的关系。结果表明:环境污染负荷与经济发展和环境基础设施建设直接相关,而与土地利用没有明显相关,建议城市管理者应当重点调控环境基础设施、工业化发展等结构因子,以实现城市环境污染负荷的削减目标。     

Lyapunov stability for an age-structured population model

This is a short notice on the McKendrick equation that I actually learned from Yu.M. Svirezhev in the 1990s. This McKendrick equation modelling the evolution in time of an age-structured population has received attention recently from mathematicians. The initial and boundary conditions for the McKendrick equation imposed by the population model are not the standard side conditions one sees in PDE theory for an evolution equation. In the simplest case, the problem reduces to a well-known model in demography, the Lotka integral equation.