风险感知对非适应性应急疏散行为的影响

为研究安全风险感知对非适应性应急疏散行为的影响机制,提升应急疏散的安全性,进而保障公众生命财产安全,建立包含风险感知、心理韧性、安全氛围、群体恐慌和非适应性应急疏散行为5个变量的理论模型,采用问卷调查法研究5个变量之间的关系,应用AMOS软件搭建结构方程模型,并结合调研数据进行分析。研究结果表明：风险感知对发生突发事件后人的非适应性应急疏散行为产生主要正向作用,群体恐慌通过调节作用提高风险感知,也会对人的非适应性应急疏散行为产生相应正向影响;安全氛围和心理韧性通过风险感知的中介作用会,对人的非适应性应急疏散行为产生一定负向影响;可通过加强安全氛围建设、安全知识科普、提高现场管理人员能力等方法,减少突发事件中非适应性应急疏散行为的产生。     

有毒液体泄漏渗流污染后果分析

有毒液体泄漏后,沿地表扩散的同时亦会发生渗流现象.有毒液体渗流会直接或间接地对土壤和地下水及周边环境造成一定的污染,甚至会对人体造成很大危害,导致中毒等重大事故的发生.为分析泄漏后毒物的浓度在时间和空间上的变化规律,建立了二维渗流方程,开发了二维渗流事故后果分析软件.分析结果表明,在假设前提下,毒物泄漏后发生渗流时,毒物浓度沿二维渗流平面呈椭圆形向四周扩散,泄漏点的浓度随泄漏时间的推移而逐渐降低,此结论对于有毒液体泄漏的预防与控制具有重要的意义.     

安全氛围对人群应急疏散行为的影响机制研究

为探究安全氛围对人群应急疏散行为的影响机制,基于一致性理论和“刺激—态度—行为”理论,构建包含安全氛围、应急疏散认知、应急疏散态度以及人群应急疏散行为的中介模型,并依据232份有效样本进行实证检验。结果表明:安全氛围对人群应急疏散行为具有显著的正向影响;应急疏散认知和应急疏散态度在安全氛围影响人群应急疏散行为的过程中均发挥正向的中介作用。     

Utilization of regression technique to develop a predictive model for hazard radius from release of typical methane-rich natural gas

The aim of hazardous area classification around equipment handling or storing of flammable fluids is to avoid the ignition of those releases that may occur from time to time in the operation of these equipment. There is a point source approach for the classification of hazardous areas which can estimate hazard radius by using hole size and release pressure. Methane-rich natural gas is widely used or produced in the process industries. Till date, there exist no reference that represents hazard radii for the wide range of possible hole sizes and release pressures of this fluid. The aim of the present study was to propose a predictive model for estimation of hazard radii due to releases of typical methane-rich natural gas based on hole size and release pressure. In this study, a complete database of hazard radii due to a broad range of hole sizes and release pressures was provided using available discharge and dispersion models. A regression-based model for estimation of hazard radii was developed based on the provided database. Performance investigation of the proposed model and a case study showed that the results are reliable with an acceptable standard error.     

煤矿工人安全认知的影响因素研究

为提高煤矿工人的安全认知能力,预防不安全行为的发生,从管理角度提出组织政治(煤矿企业正式结构外的决策影响力)、管理公平性和管理者安全支持对安全认知影响的假设关系。利用问卷调查获取数据,运用结构方程模型(SEM)探讨3个因素对安全认知的影响。实证分析表明:管理者安全支持和管理公平性对矿工安全认知有直接影响关系;组织政治对管理者安全支持和管理公平性具有直接负向影响关系,并通过管理者安全支持间接负向影响安全认知;管理公平性对管理者安全支持具有显著的正向影响关系,并通过此变量间接影响安全认知。管理者安全支持和管理公平性是矿工安全认知的重要影响因素,具有预测矿工安全认知的效果。     

The role of NIMBY in opposing the siting of wind farms: evidence from Greece

This paper aims to assess the relative importance of a NIMBY (‘Not-In-My-Back-Yard’) stance on an individual's opposition to the siting of a wind farm vis-à-vis other predictors, such as perceived effects (costs, risks and benefits associated with the project), perceived fairness of the siting decision and societal trust. Data originate from two case studies, a small wind farm of just two wind turbines in southern Greece and a mega-project of 153 turbines on the Greek island of Lesvos (aggregate N = 334). We use structural equation modelling (SEM) for testing the theoretically-suggested relations between the various constructs. We find that NIMBY is not the most important predictor of opposition while it is strongly correlated with other predictors, such as the perceived unfairness of the siting decision as well as the risks and costs associated with the wind farm. These latter findings undermine the common-sense idea that wishing a wind farm out of one's vicinity (‘Not-In-My-Back-Yard’) is an example of mere ‘free-riding’. Since the fit of the SEM models was found to be moderate, we discuss the limitations of our study and the implications of our findings as well as suggesting pathways for future research.     

Watering the garden: preferences for alternative sources in suburban areas of the Mediterranean coast

Gardening has become a relevant contributor to the quality of life of suburbanites, as a source of leisure, to build a relationship with nature or to express a particular social identity. Nevertheless, water scarcity in the Mediterranean region has increased concerns about how demand should be managed to face future uncertainties, and watering the gardens has become an element for discussion in urban planning. This contribution presents the findings of a survey of permanent residents and secondary homeowners (n?=?230) in the suburban areas surrounding the city of Girona in the northeast of Catalonia (Spain). The area is a popular national and international tourist destination and a preferred place for second-home owners. We explore the main socio-demographic drivers for choosing an alternative watering source and we analyse if water-harvesting tank sizes properly meet net irrigation requirements. Results show that many water-harvesting tanks are oversized. The percentage of unemployed or retired household members, the estimated irrigation water needs of the garden and the education level directly influence the search for alternative sources of water. Moreover, social variables like interest in gardening, water conservation attitudes and household income indirectly influence the search for alternative sources of water.     

A model to determine the lake nutrient standards for drinking water sources in Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau Ecoregion, China

Lake eutrophication (LE) has become an increasingly severe environmental problem recently. However, there has been no nutrient standard established for LE control in many developing countries such as China. This study proposes a structural equation model to assist in the establishment of a lake nutrient standard for drinking water sources in Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau Ecoregion (Yungui Ecoregion), China. The modeling results indicate that the most predictive indicator for designated use-attainment is total phosphorus (TP) (total effect =-0.43), and chlorophyll a (Chl-a) is recommended as the second important indicator (total effect =-0.41). The model is further used for estimating the probability of use-attainment associated with lake water as a drinking water source and various levels of candidate criteria (based on the reference conditions and the current environmental quality standards for surface water). It is found that these candidate criteria cannot satisfy the designated 100% use-attainment. To achieve the short-term target (85% attainment of the designated use), TP and Chl-a values ought to be less than 0.02 mg/L and 1.4 μg/L, respectively. When used as a long-term target (90% or greater attainment of the designated use), the TP and Chl-a values are suggested to be less than 0.018 mg/L and 1 μg/L, respectively.     

叶绿素a与环境因子关系的研究——以三明地区某水源地为例

根据2009～2012年水源地水质自动监测所得数据,分析叶绿素a的动态变化与环境因子的相关关系,筛选影响叶绿素a含量变化的环境因子。分析表明:该水源地水库水质状况属贫营养型,其中叶绿素a含量变化主要受总磷、水温、高锰酸盐指数影响,以这3种影响因子建立起的多元回归方程能较好的预测水库叶绿素a的变化趋势。