基于粗糙集和BP神经网络的流域水资源脆弱性预测研究——以淮河流域为例

水资源是一种重要的自然资源和经济资源,对其未来的脆弱性进行预测可以预估研究区未来的水安全状况,对其脆弱性问题做出预警,从而及时采取治理措施。因此,合理科学的水资源脆弱性预测研究是缓解水资源脆弱性的有效手段。目前,水资源脆弱性研究主要是针对水资源现状进行评价,对其未来状况的预测较少。集成了粗糙集和BP神经网络两种方法,首先采用改进了的盲目删除法对构建的流域水资源脆弱性评价指标体系进行约简,其次通过BP神经网络拟合约简后的指标数据与脆弱度之间的映射关系,构建流域水资源脆弱性评价预测模型。基于之前研究的样本数据和脆弱性结果,探讨淮河流域未来的水资源脆弱性状况。结果表明:淮河流域2015年、2020年和2025年的水资源脆弱度分别为0.305、0.359和0.390,处于轻度脆弱和中度脆弱的状况,除2015年脆弱性状况有所好转以外,2020年和2025年的水资源脆弱性程度与近几年相比有所加剧,根据指标数据可知该现象主要是受年降水量、人均用水量、万元GDP废水排放量、垦殖指数、有效灌溉面积比和干旱面积受灾比6个指标的影响,为避免水资源脆弱性的加剧,应当有针对性的加强这几个方面的管理和控制。     

贵州山区中药产业化发展的问题与对策

从自然、社会、经济等不同角度阐述了贵州山区加快中药产业化发展的重要性和可行性。在分析了贵州山区中药资源概况特征的基础上 ,着重剖析了贵州中药产业化发展面临的主要问题 ,提出了相应的对策措施 ,旨在为贵州中药资源的产业化开发与持续利用提供依据。     

浅谈学会在创建资源科学中的地位与作用——纪念中国自然资源学会成立30周年

资源科学的创建与发展,中国自然资源学会起到了十分重要的作用。论文以中国自然资源学会组织或参与组织的我国创建与发展资源科学的四项最重要的基础性工作为主线,即中国资源科学的实践总结——《中国自然资源丛书》、中国资源科学大型理论工具书——《中国资源科学百科全书》、中国资源科学启蒙作——《资源科学》专著、资源科学概念的语言符号——《资源科学技术名词》,从每项工作的撰写背景、组织机构、主要内容、社会评价等方面入手,揭示了资源科学的创建与发展历程,总结了学会发展与学科建设的关系。     

长江口北支湿地资源和环境现状调查

调查了长江口支湿地环境现状，分析了评价长江口北支湿地的环境质量。指出，长江口北支湿地有着得天独厚的地理位置和自然条件，是世界范围内极具代表性十分重要的湿地，拥有丰富的水资源，动植物资源，滩涂资源等。近年来，由于长江上游河水质量下降，启东和海门经内河流向长江的城市生活污水，启东沿江建设的工业带，对北支口湿地环境质量产生了较大的影响。调查结果表明，长江口北支口水域主要污染物为COD，氨氮等，其污染程度呈现出以下规律：平水期（污染）＞丰水期（污染）＞枯水期（污染）。长江口北支区域陆地土壤中主要污染物为重金属元素镉，铅，锌以及滴滴涕，其中镉与滴滴涕达《土壤环境质量标准》（GB15618－1995）中三级标准，其他指标达一级标准。     

《旅游资源分类、调查与评价》国家标准的更新审视与研究展望

旅游资源作为区域旅游发展独特的存在,是吸引旅游者进行旅游活动的关键要素,也是影响区域旅游经济发展的重要条件。总结国内旅游资源学术研究的发展趋势和研究主题,将其划分为萌芽起步期、发展成熟期和停滞衰退期三个研究阶段,研究主题则主要包括旅游资源概念界定、调查实践、评价与开发等;对2017年更新的《旅游资源分类、调查与评价》国家标准进行系统解读,重点分析其内容的全新变化并且深入剖析尚且存在的问题;对接学术研究与实践应用,重点从旅游资源概念、分类、调查和评价四个方面说明二者的互动关系和延伸讨论,明晰旅游资源研究与应用的重点内容和发展方向,以有益于理论与实践的相互影响和促进。     

International organization and EIA in developing countries

International EIA activity has two origins. First, there is increasing concern over conflict between developmental and environmental interests within the economic development system. Second, EIA appeals to international agencies and governments as a well-defined, internally integrated procedure and planning tool. EIA activities involve political, institutional, and technical motivations and goals for the international bodies and the governments of countries receiving aid. Three criteria may be used to evaluate international EIA from the perspective of policy makers and administrators in the countries: political support, institutional strengthening, and technical capability. This paper reviews the influence of the United Nations system and of some multilateral and bilateral development assistance agencies in promoting EIA in developing countries. The extent the nature of the influence donors have on EIA in developing countries is shaped as much by the interests and organizational characteristics of the donors as by the needs and priorities of the recipients.     

The global environment: Past,present and future

The changing status of the global environment, in both developed and developing countries, and our perception of these changes since the convening of the United Nations Conference on the Human Environment in Stockholm in 1972 are reviewed. The present as well as potential future environmental issues facing mankind are discussed under three interrelated broad categories: interrelationship between people, resources, environment and development, rational use of natural resources and new patterns of development and lifestyle.     

浅论循环经济与环境污染综合治理

介绍循环经济的主要特征及其对环境、资源的有利影响，指出化工企业的发展应走新型工业化道路。     

环境质量消费的经济学分析

以理性经济人，环境质量的需求和供给可以充分市场化，环境质量与地租正相关为理论假并把消费者抽象为高，低收入两个团体，通过建立理论模型来探讨消费者收入水平，环境质量的供给特性和环境质量消 这间的一般规律，结果表明（１）消费者收为公共物品，它 给方式也影响实际消费，由于环境质量存在空间差异，这种影响可以通过空间迁移选择来体现；（４）政府通过管理来调控环境质量供给，需求和消费的再分配。     

Shell acquisition by hermit crabs: which tactic is more efficient?

Gastropod shells are limited resources for most hermit crab species, acting as primary factors in various aspects of their biology. To investigate the efficacy of different behavioral tactics adopted for their acquisition (locomotion, attendance at shell-supplying sites, interactions with conspecifics in aggregation) we conducted observations and experiments at a salt marsh in New England (USA). Locomotion, fast and meandering, significantly increased the chances of encountering empty shells and conspecifics. However, shell exchanges were rare. Simulated gastropod predation sites quickly attracted a larger number of hermit crabs than the other shell-supplying sites tested (live and dead conspecifics, live snails) and induced the rapid occupancy of all the empty shells offered, usually by the first crabs arriving at the site. Aggregations seemed not to function as shell exchange markets, as previously suggested for several other species. In the short run, exploitation seems to be more efficient for the acquisition of new shells by Pagurus longicarpus. In the long run, it is the density of nondestructive gastropod predators that regulates the availability of new shells of good quality in the pool available to this hermit crab species.