陕西省油松混交林木质残体储量与腐烂特征

木质残体是油松针阔混交林的重要组成部分,具有多种的生态功能,对生态系统的稳定和发展有着不可忽视的作用。以陕西省黄龙山林区为研究区域,设置1 hm2(100 m×100 m)的固定样地,研究典型油松针阔混交林木质残体的储量组成、优势树种的空间关系、腐烂特征及密度与含水量,研究结果表明:(1)研究区油松针阔混交林内木质残体的总储量为10.73 t·hm–2,倒木是林分内木质残体的主要来源。在径级组成结构上,径级20 cm以上的木质残体储量占总储量的绝大部分。腐烂等级中,以腐烂等级Ⅱ与腐烂等级Ⅲ的木质残体贮量最多;(2)利用线性模型模拟该林分木质残体的分解密度与含水量,其拟合结果显示木质残体的密度随着腐烂等级的增加而呈现下降趋势,而含水量则随着腐烂等级的增加而呈现升高的趋势;(3)林分内主要研究树种(油松、白桦和山杨)之间在小空间尺度上呈负关联,大尺度下呈正关联,顶级树种与先锋树种间达到互利共生,群落具有较大稳定性。林分内种间竞争的结果将为地带性顶级树种油松代替白桦与山杨等先锋树种。天然油松针阔混交林木质残体的贮量组成及腐烂特征反映了该区森林群落演替后期阶段木质残体的结构特征,本文的研究结果为我国黄土高原针阔混交林生态系统的管理和保护以及可持续经营提供科学依据。     

The influence of Chinese population policy change on resources and the environment

Universal two-child policy has been implemented since the end of 2015 in China. This policy is anticipated to bring a significant increase in the total population, with profound influences on the resources and environment in the future. This paper analyzes the changing dynamics of urban and rural population, and forecasts urban and rural population from 2016 to 2030 at national and provincial scale using a double log linear regression model. Drawing upon the results of these two predictions, the impact of the population policy change on Chinese resources consumption and environmental pollution are predicted quantitatively. Given the future total population maintains current levels on resources consumption and environmental emission, the additional demand of resources and environment demand for the new population is forecasted and compared against the capacity on supply side. The findings are as follows: after implementing the universal two-child policy, China’s grain, energy consumption, domestic water demand, and pollutant emissions are projected to increase at different rates across provinces. To meet the needs arising from future population growth, food and energy self-sufficiency rate will be significantly reduced in the future, while relying more on imports. Stability of the water supply needs to be improved, especially in Beijing, Henan, Jiangsu, Qinghai, and Sichuan where the gap in future domestic water demand is comparatively larger. Environmental protection and associated governing capability are in urgent need of upgrade not least due to the increasing pressure of pollution.     

三峡蓄水前后宜昌–城陵矶水情多尺度变化特征分析

采用Morlet小波分解重构和频谱分析等方法,对宜昌、枝城、沙市、监利和城陵矶1997~2014年水位和流量及三峡水库2003~2014年入库、出库流量和库水位数据进行了统计分析,探究了各水文站在三峡建坝前后水情的变化特征及原因。结果表明:各观测站的水位和流量沿程递减,水位的年内波动处同一水平,研究河段内上游河段流量年内和年际变化比下游河段剧烈;各水文站水位和流量变化的显著周期为6.05、11.78、21.2、30.29和53个月,各水文站水位1 a周期变化幅度均在2 m以上,其他周期上的变化幅度为0.08~0.82 m;三峡水库蓄水活动对下游水文站水位和流量等水情的影响有限,主要反映在对水情趋势项的影响上,三峡大坝蓄水后,各水文站水位和流量受到一定程度影响,呈波动性递减变化。     

江苏省沿江开发区空间分工、制造业集聚与转移

基于新经济地理学相关理论,针对江苏省沿江开发战略实施以后,制造业空间可能存在的变动,在整理和分析调查问卷资料的基础上,选择专业化指数和基尼系数2种方法来定量分析江苏省21个沿江省级以上开发区空间分工、制造业集聚和转移态势。结果表明：（1）2002~2006年江南沿江开发区通过向江北沿江开发区转移部分传统产业,逐渐形成了江南沿江技术/资本密集型制造业“中心”和江北沿江劳动密集型制造业“外围”的空间分工格局;（2）江南沿江开发区内部、江北沿江开发区内部尚未形成良好的分工关系;（3）受开发区发展阶段、区域产业政策、本地化资源供给和市场需求等因素影响,并未发现理论预期的普遍存在的产业集聚现象,仅纺织服装、石化、电力、塑料橡胶等产业呈现集中趋势.     

大坝拦截对河流水溶解组分化学组成的影响分析——以夏季乌江渡水库为例

以乌江渡水库为主要研究对象,揭示了大坝拦截条件下的夏季水化学特征：阴离子以HCO-3,SO2-4为主,阳离子以Ca2+,Mg2+为主,其余离子含量低于10%,说明了碳酸盐岩的风化对水体化学组成起到了主要控制作用,蒸发盐岩石的风化对水体化学组成影响较小。水库水体存在温度分层现象,形成了不同层位的水体有着不同的水化学组成,即水化学分层。水化学的分层形成了溶解组分在水库垂直深度上的规律分布,比如受藻类的影响,Si和叶绿素随深度成相反的变化特征;HCO-3受光合作用和有机质降解的影响,30 m 以上随着水深的增加而递增,30 m 以下呈现相反趋势;水库泄水方式明显改变了水化学各种参数和离子在水体中的分配。乌江水库两主要支流（息烽河和偏岩河）分别对乌江渡坝前水体中的Ca2+,SO2-4,HCO-3,Mg2+和K+,Na+,Cl-有贡献。网箱养鱼、生活污水、农业施肥、酸性矿山废水以及酸雨沉降都会对水体造成不同程度的污染。     

国外流域管理的成功经验对雅砻江流域管理的启示

世界各国对流域管理的不断探索,大大丰富了流域管理的理论和实践,流域管理已成为国家和地区水资源管理的一种行之有效的模式。我国的流域管理尚处于最初的探索阶段,如何借鉴国外流域管理的成功经验,形成有效的流域管理模式已成为我国水资源管理的主要任务之一。为了给国内流域管理实践提供一些有益的借鉴,分析总结了具有代表性的美国田纳西河流域管理模式、澳大利亚墨累 达令河流域管理模式和英国泰晤士河流域管理模式的成功经验和存在的问题。以雅砻江流域水电开发为实例,在对该流域的实际情况进行全面分析的基础上,将该流域与上述三条流域进行比较,充分借鉴三条流域管理模式成功经验,提出了雅砻江流域管理的相关对策和建议。     

多源信息融合技术在内陆湖库水华预警中的研究进展与展望

面对水体富营养化愈来愈严重,水华爆发越来越频繁的严峻形式;为减少水华发生频率及由此造成的损失,开展水华预警已成当务之急。水华爆发是水体中营养盐的累积、气候条件与水力条件等众多因素非线性共同作用的产物;为此,有必要在众多水华影响因素的动态监测信息的融合基础上,寻求水华爆发与这些影响因素间的影射关系,这就需要信息融合技术。通过归纳总结多源信息融合技术在内陆湖库水华预警中应用的研究进展,结合目前我国水华预警的具体需求,提出建立基于多源信息融合技术的水华预警决策支持系统的研究前景与初步设想。信息融合技术为水华预警提供了一个良好的平台,它将与水华相关的不同信息源（水文、气象、水环境质量与环境遥感）所提供的局部不完整的观测信息加以集成与互补,消除多源信息之间存在的冗余和矛盾,形成对水华爆发环境相对完整的感知与描述;从而提高水华预警与应急响应决策的效率,提高预警信息的时间与空间分辨率,扩展信息的时空监测范围。     

汉江堵河流域地表水质时空变化特征

对汉江堵河流域9个点位为期1年的地表水水质理化特性进行时空特征分析,应用〖WTBX〗t〖WTBZ〗检验进行水质季节性变化分析,聚类分析进行空间相似性分析以确定空间尺度的分类情况,判别分析识别显著性指标,并以此反映上述空间聚类分析结果的差异性。结果表明:①Cl-、总溶解性固体（TDS）及浊度（Turbidity） 3项指标没有表现出显著的时间差异性;②温度、pH、NO-3、TP表现为丰水季显著大于枯水季,而SO2-4、HCO-3、NH+4、 DO则表现出相反的变化趋势,即枯水季显著大于丰水季;③空间聚类分析将采样点分为4类;④判别分析体现出良好的指标降维能力,仅需4个指标（NO-3、TDS、SO2-4、HCO-3）即可反映整体水质的空间差异性。     

Determinants for cassava production expansion in the semi-arid zone of West Africa

The study focuses on evaluating factors that farmers consider relevant in adopting cassava production in five semi-arid zone of West African countries. The study is based on primary data randomly collected as part of collaborative study of cassava in semiarid zones of Africa (COSCASSA) village level survey from five West African countries namely: Nigeria, Ghana, Chad, Niger and Burkina Faso. This study models effects of farm, farmer and technology specific factors on the decision of semi arid farmers to adopt cassava into their farming system. By way of threshold decision models—Probit and Logit models, the estimation of each country and the pooled data adoption models reveal different adoption models for the countries considered. For each country, different variables appeared as major adoption shifters. Comparatively, the adoption models for Nigeria and whole region appear to have the highest significance variables, being seven in number. This is followed by Chad (6), Ghana (4), and Burkina Faso and Niger with three each. For the variables considered, distance to nearby urban market appears a major adoption shifter in all the country, except for Niger. This is closely followed by contact with extension, variety, pest/disease resistance and livestock feeds, which appear significant in four of the countries. Membership of cooperative societies appears as the least adoption predictor, which is only significant in Chad republic. The study therefore recognizes the importance of varietial characteristics and farmers’ characteristics in acceptance of cassava as a major root tuber crop in the semi arid region of West Africa. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Temporal and spatial patterns of micropollutants in urban receiving waters

Based on a monitoring program over the course of a year, we characterize the temporal and spatial distribution of selected micropollutants in an urban watershed within the city of Leipzig, Germany. Micropollutants revealed a ubiquitous presence in untreated and treated wastewater, surface water and groundwater. The loads of 4-nonylphenol in the effluents of the municipal wastewater treatment plant followed a seasonal trend, whereas the loads of all other micropollutants were highly variable and not correlated to seasons. In the surface water, load seasonality of caffeine, galaxolide and tonalide resulted from a rapid removal with increased water temperature. The loads of 4-nonylphenol and of caffeine in the colder months increased when rainfall occurred. In the groundwater, complex spatial and temporal patterns were apparent and were related to varying input, retardation and removal processes. As a consequence, an assessment of micropollutants in urban waters should consider different micropollutants' temporal and spatial variability.