中国的能源安全与评估

能源是国家重要的战略资源，能源安全直接影响国家安全。针对中国能源安全问题，通过构建评估指标体系，以2000年和2005年的数据对能源安全进行评估，并分析两个年度能源安全状况的变动情况，旨在跟踪监测国家能源安全状况的动态变化。据此，提出保障国家能源安全的对策选择：以进口能源为主，以国内能源作为调节；实现能源进口来源多元化；鼓励企业走出去。     

社会发展指标体系的建立与应用

选择有代表性的重要指标组成社会发展指标体系,用科学的方法进行国际间、地区间的综合评估与排序,比较各地的进步与差距。评估方法具有开拓性和实用性,社会效果较好。     

基于公众参与的全面小康指标体系实证研究

采用以小组为单位的公众参与方法，选择上海社会经济发展水平和特征不同的三个样区，对政府管理人员、知识分子、青少年和居民共492人进行了问卷调查。研究基于不同居民群众对指标的不同认同程序，采用同心圆结构体系，制定了由4个核心指标、9个扩展指标、5个附加指标和若干个地方性或特殊人群指标组成的全面小康指标体系。研究结果显示，全面小康建设中，居民最关心的核心指标为居民综合素质、学校教育质量、社会治安状况，社会福利和保障水平。地区经济发展水平和不同群体的社会背景深刻影响了居民对全国小康内涵的理解和需求。     

再生水补给型城市景观水体中抗生素抗性基因的污染特征——以圆明园为例

由于抗生素抗性基因(Antibiotic Resistance Genes,ARGs)对环境和人类健康存在潜在威胁而逐渐受到人们的重视,高人口密度城市中典型景观水体是ARGs储存库和传播媒介.本研究采用实时荧光定量PCR技术,研究了圆明园不同点位的ARGs污染情况和分布特征.结果表明:园区中ARGs的绝对丰度范围在n.d.(未检出)～1.08×10~9copies·L~(-1)之间;园区进水口目标ARGs的丰度低于末端,表明封闭的水体可能为ARGs的积累提供了理想培养基.在所检测基因中,磺胺类ARGs占主导,ARGs的绝对丰度依次为:sulIIsulImefAtetQtetMermB.磺胺类ARGs与指示微生物粪大肠菌群和大肠杆菌间存在显著相关性,表明指示微生物在ARGs的传播中可能起着关键作用.     

生态足迹动态预测模型构建与分析——以武汉市为例

生态足迹的动态预测能够为区域可持续发展政策的制定提供科学的理论依据,但其研究仍处于探索阶段.以武汉市为例,选取表征社会经济发展的重要指标建立了社会经济系统指标体系,在对武汉市1978～2004年生态足迹时间序列计量的基础上,应用偏最小二乘算法构建了生态足迹动态预测模型,并根据VIP值的大小分析了各指标对生态足迹的影响机制.结果表明,武汉市"十一五"规划期间生态足迹呈上升趋势,其中规划期末2010年的人均生态足迹为2.810 5 hm2,高于全球生态阈值(人均生态足迹为2.200 0 hm2);根据VIP值得出人口、能源消费量和第三产业所占比重为最重要的影响因子,并就如何实现武汉市"十一五"规划目标提出了政策性建议.将科技进步贡献率、能源消费量等重要因子纳入社会经济系统指标体系,弥补了在生态足迹定量测度中忽略社会、经济、科技因素对其影响的不足;另一方面,引入偏最小二乘算法中的VIP值更准确地评价了各指标对生态足迹变化的影响,为生态足迹动态预测研究作了进一步地完善与改进.     

Emergy evaluation of an integrated livestock wastewater treatment system

Wastewater treatment practices should pay more attention to their environmental performances due to their resources consumption and emissions’ impact. While reclaimed water reuse seems to have become a promising practice, is it always feasible in any condition? To address this issue, this study carried out an extended emergy evaluation of a holistic wastewater treatment system. On one hand, this method was extended to include the emissions’ impact. On the other hand, this study integrated a wastewater treatment plant, its excess sludge disposal system and treated water disposal system into an integrated wastewater treatment system (IWTS), so as to evaluate its performances more completely. And then several indicators, including cost per unit pollutant eliminated (CUPE), ratio of positive output (RPO), environmental load ratio (ELR), and sustainability index (SI), were proposed for evaluating the performances of an IWTS. Two scenarios (scenario A: wastewater treatment + sludge landfilling + treated water discharges; scenario B: wastewater treatment + sludge landfilling + reclaimed water reuse) for a livestock wastewater treatment plant in Sichuan Agricultural University located in Ya’an City in Southwest China, as cases, were researched. The results show that scenario B has lower positive output efficiency and greater environmental load than scenario A. Meanwhile, the reclaimed water reuse raises cost per unit pollutant eliminated compared with the treated water being discharged directly; emissions’ impact enhances the environmental load of the two scenarios to different degree; emissions’ impact has decisive effect on the sustainability of the two scenarios. These results mean that the reclaimed water reuse should not be advocated in this case. This study provides some policy implications: (1) wastewater treatment process should be comprehensively evaluated from its resources consumption and impact of emissions; (2) reclaimed water reuse should be carefully evaluated from its pros and cons simultaneously; (3) the local conditions should be considered when implementing reclaimed water reuse, such as local water body conditions, market demands, the related laws and regulations, corporations’ economic conditions, etc.     

长三角一体化高质量发展：内涵、现状及对策

推动长三角一体化发展是着眼于实现“两个一百年”奋斗目标谋划部署的重大国家战略。本文首先解析了长三角一体化发展的新态势,提出了长三角一体化高质量发展的“四更”内涵,即更高战略定位的一体化、更高效率和水平的一体化、更加协调的一体化与更优空间形态的一体化。重点回顾总结了长三角一体化发展上升为国家战略三年多以来开展的主要行动和工作成效,按照高质量发展就是贯彻新发展理念的基本逻辑,构建了体现创新、协调、绿色、开放和共享五大理念的长三角一体化高质量发展评价指标体系,评估了2018—2020年长三角一体化高质量发展状态。对照一体化高质量发展新要求,针对目前存在问题,从空间部署和重点领域等方面提出相关路径建议,以期为推动长三角一体化更高质量发展提供决策参考。     

Development of a scale for assessing the organization's safety performance based fuzzy ANP

Traditionally, safety performance is assessed through statistical analyses of incident data, known as lagging indicators. Lagging indicators are not useful since the goal of founding safety management systems is the continuous improvement. In this study, a scale was established and validated to assess the elements that affect the organization safety. The fuzzy analytic network process (FANP) procedure was applied to weigh the elements and to reveal the influence of various structures for the proposed scales on the safety performance indicator. A 120-item scale was developed following the interview process to examine the factors that affect safety performance. Based on the face validity results, eight items were removed. The mean value of the instrument's validity index was 0.79. According to the FANP results, the organizational factor had the highest weight load of 0.465, whereas the environmental factor, with a weight of 0.209, had the least effect on the organization's safety performance index. An analysis of the study data showed that the designed scale can be used as an objective and simple tool to evaluate the factors that affect safety performance.     

人为活动对冈曲河大型底栖动物空间分布的影响

为监测人为活动对高海拔山区河流的影响,以香格里拉冈曲河为例,应用多维统计分析与排序分析,探讨大型底栖动物群落对人为活动的响应. 研究表明,冈曲河受到低浓度重金属污染,农业活动和水体富营养化程度相对较轻,总体水质状况符合国家地表水环境质量标准(GB3838—2002)Ⅰ,Ⅱ类水质标准. 聚类分析显示,大型底栖动物群落可分为4组:组Ⅰ(北支翁水河)与组Ⅱ(南支格咱河)采样点受人为活动的影响最轻;组Ⅲ采样点主要受开矿和农业活动影响;组Ⅳ采样点受重金属污染相对较重. 4组采样点在无度量多维标定法(NMS)排序轴上的分布差异明显,组Ⅰ与组Ⅱ采样点体现出空间分布差异,而人为活动主要影响组Ⅲ与组Ⅳ采样点. 随河级增加,底栖动物的群落结构除受到水深、河宽、水温、浊度和海拔高度等环境因子的影响外,组Ⅲ与组Ⅳ采样点影响底栖动物群落退化的主要因素为Cu,Pb和NO-₃-N. 石蛭科和毛缘蛾蚋为组Ⅰ采样点的指示种;叉襀和倍叉襀等敏感类群为组Ⅱ采样点的主要指示种;组Ⅲ的指示种为中耐污种短石蛾和蜉蝣,以及强耐污种寡毛类;涡虫为组Ⅳ采样点的指示种,表明涡虫具有较高的重金属污染耐受性.      

采砂迹地型湿地恢复过程中植物群落分布与土壤环境因子的关系

利用TWINSPAN（双向指示种分析）和CCA排序（典范对应分析）的方法,对北京西卓家营采砂迹地型退化湿地植被进行了群落类型划分,并探讨了湿地植被空间分布与土壤环境因子关系,确定了影响湿地植被空间分布的关键因子。结果表明：38个样方40个植物种可划分为7个群落类型,即茭白＋针蔺群落（Zizania latifolia＋Eleocharis congesta）;牛鞭草＋旋覆花＋野艾蒿＋竹节灯心草＋茵陈蒿＋扁杆藨草群落（Hemarthria sibirica＋Inula japonica＋Artemisia lavandulifolia＋Juncus turczaninowii＋Artemisia capillaries＋Scirpus planiculmis）;千屈菜＋苣荬菜＋小香蒲群落（Lythrum salicaria＋Herba Sonchi Brachyoti＋Typha minima）;竹节灯心草＋问荆＋酸模叶蓼＋芦苇群落（Juncus turczaninowii＋Equisetum arvense＋Polygonum lapathifolium＋Phragmites australis）;针蔺＋扁杆藨草＋茵陈蒿＋野艾蒿群落（Eleocharis congesta＋Scirpus planiculmis＋Artemisia capillaries＋Artemisia lavandulifolia）;鬼针草＋狗尾草＋香蒲群落（Bidens pilosa＋Setaria viridis＋Typha orientalis）和朝天委陵菜＋猪毛菜＋大刺儿菜＋稗群落（Potentilla supine＋Salsola collina＋Cephalanoplos setosum＋Echinochloa crusgalli）。植物群落物种和土壤因子的CCA分析表明：益母草、大车前、猪毛菜主要受土壤pH的影响;茭白主要受氨氮、土壤有机质（SOM）的影响;马唐、鸡眼草主要受土壤全氮（TN）和Mg2＋的影响;针蔺、狼杷草受土壤K＋的影响;苦苣菜、苣荬菜、牛鞭草主要受土壤Na＋的影响;黄香草木犀主要受土壤Cl-的影响;灰绿藜、大刺儿菜、球穗莎草主要受土壤NO3-的影响;扁杆藨草、小香蒲主要受全磷（TP）和含水率的影响。研究结论将为采砂迹地型湿地恢复提供科学支持。