CONTRIBUTION OF PRECIPITATION TO QUALITY OF URBAN STORM RUNOFF1

Precipitation and runoff samples were collected for 13 storms in a nonindustrial urban area in Central Pennsylvania between July 1980 and June 1981. Runoff was collected from tree surfaces, a residential roof and street, a shopping mall parking lot, a downtown business district alley, and a heavily traveled street. Analysis of the water samples showed 10 to 25 percent of the nitrogen, 25 percent of the sulfate, and less than 5 percent of the phosphorus, potassium, and calcium in water below a tree was deposited by the precipitation. The residential roof caused insignificant changes in water chemistry. The results for the four paved areas showed that all the nitrogen, and from 16 to 40 percent of the sulfate and 13, 4, and 2 percent of the phosphorus, potassium, and calcium, respectively, in runoff was deposited by the precipitation. Precipitation can also be an important source of sulfate and phosphorus in runoff. All of the surfaces raised the pH of the runoff, with the largest increases, from a pH of 4 to about 7, occurring in runoff from the paved areas. Precipitation and runoff chemistry was not related to antecedent conditions such as the length of the preceding dry period.     

关于铁路行车事故预测的应用研究

本文论述了事故预测对铁路行车安全的重要性,并应用灰色预测模型和概率回归估计法模型研制了预测软件,进行铁路行车事故的宏观及微观预测,为采取有针对性的防范措施提供一个可靠信息。     

Short-term wind speed forecasting based on random forest model combining ensemble empirical mode decomposition and improved harmony search algorithm

ABSTRACT

Wind speed forecasting plays an important role in power grid dispatching management. This article proposes a short-term wind speed forecasting method based on random forest model combining ensemble empirical modal decomposition and improved harmony search algorithm. First, the initial wind speed data set is decomposed into several ensemble empirical mode functions by EEMD, then feature extraction of each sub-modal IMF is performed using fast Fourier transform to solve the cycle of each sub-modal IMF. Next, combining the high-performance parameter optimization ability of the improved harmony search algorithm, two optimal parameters of random forest model, number of decision trees, and number of split features are determined. Finally, the random forest model is used to forecast the processing results of each submodal IMF. The proposed model is applied to the simulation analysis of historical wind data of Chaoyang District, Liaoning Province from April 27, 2015 to May 22, 2015. To illustrate the suitability and superiority of the EEMD-RF-IHS model, three types of models are used for comparison: single models including ANN, SVM, RF; EMD combination models including EMD-ANN, EMD-SVM, EMD-RF; EEMD combination models including EEMD-ANN, EEMD-SVM, EEMD-RF. The analysis results of evaluation indicators show that the proposed model can effectively forecast short-term wind data with high stability and precision, providing a reference for forecasting application in other industry fields.     

基于遥感与GIS的土地利用动态变化研究

土地是人类社会经济活动的载体；土地利用是指人类对作为生产生活资料的土地的利用方式和强度；而土地利用动态变化则反映了土地利用方式的发展变化趋势。土地利用动态变化在数量，方式，强度，结构和趋势等方面存在很大的差异。全面，客观地反映土地利用动态变化有利于正确认识当前土地利用中合理和不合理的利用方式，为制定长期，可持续发展的土地管理和土地规划提供依据。遥感技术提供巨大而丰富的信息源，GIS技术具有强大的数据处理，空间分析等功能，二者的结合有着传统方式无法比拟的优越性，具有周期短，效率高，费用低等特点，在土地利用变化监测中发挥着巨大的作用。制定详细的技术手段，对重庆市15年间的土地利用及其动态变化在时间序列和空间序列上加以分析，阐明这种变化的外在表象，即耕地，林地的减少和城镇用地的增加；同时分析这种变化的内在驱动力主要为自然环境（坡度，高程，土壤等）和人文要素（经济条件与人口压力等）。为国土资源的有效可持续利用提供决策依据。     

Validation of the propensity for angry driving scale

Problem: This study examined the validity of the Propensity for Angry Driving Scale (PADS; DePasquale, J. P., Geller, E. S., Clarke, S. W., and Littleton, L. C. (2001). Measuring road rage: Development of the Propensity for Angry Driving Scale. Journal of Safety Research, 32, 1–16) in predicting aggressive driving. Method: The PADS and the Driving Anger Scale (DAS; Deffenbacher, J. L., Oetting, E. R., and Lynch, R. S. (1994). Development of a driving anger scale. Psychological reports, 74, 83–91.) were administered to 232 college student volunteers with measures of aggressive and risky driving. Results: Convergent and discriminant validity of the PADS were supported through relationships among measures of similar constructs. The PADS significantly (p<.05) predicted moving tickets, minor accidents, aggressive driving, risky driving, and maladaptive driving anger expression, above and beyond gender, miles driven per week, and trait anger. Discussion: Findings suggest that the PADS is a useful predictor of aggressive driving and has some advantages over the DAS. Impact on Industry: The PADS is an effective predictor of aggressive driving that complements established measures like the DAS and provides researchers with another valuable tool for the assessment of aggressive driving.     

Graduated driver licensing and safer driving

Graduated Driver Licensing (GDL) inserts between the leaner permit and full licensure an intermediate or "provisional" license that allows novices to drive unsupervised but subject to provisions intended to reduce the risks that accompany entry into highway traffic. Introduction of GDL has been followed by lowered accident rates, resulting from both limiting exposure of novices to unsafe situations and by helping them to deal with them more safely. Sources of safer driving include extended learning, early intervention, contingent advancement, and multistage instruction. To extend the learning process, most GDL systems lengthen the duration of the learner phase and require a specified level of adult-supervised driving. Results indicate that extended learning can reduce accidents substantially if well structured and highly controlled. Early intervention with novice traffic violators have shown both a general deterrent effect upon novice violators facing suspension and a specific effect upon those who have experienced it. Making advancement to full licensure contingent upon a violation-free record when driving on the provisional license has also evidenced a reduction in accidents and violations during that phase of licensure. Multistage instruction attempts development of advanced skills only after novices have had a chance to master more basic skills. Although this element of GDL has yet to be evaluated, research indicates crash reduction is possible in situations where it does not increase exposure to risk. While the various elements of GDL have demonstrated potential benefit in enhancing the safety of novice drivers, considerable improvement in the nature and enforcement of GDL requirements is needed to realize that potential.     

Assessment of older drivers: relationships among on-road errors, medical conditions and test outcome

PROBLEM: It is essential that driver licensing authorities have a valid and reliable system for evaluating older drivers' continuing competency; road tests are usually required as part of such a system. This study sought to find information about the nature of driving errors made during license review tests, and about relationships between error type and test outcome for older drivers. METHOD: Data from licensing authority files from 533 road tests during a 12-month period were analyzed; medical and other referral information was included. Average driver age was 76 years. Performance scores were generated for intersection negotiation, lane changing, low speed manoeuvres, positioning and speed control, safety margin, and car control. RESULTS: Logistic regression analysis showed that test outcome was well predicted by a subset of driving performance scores; adding driver age to the model explained very little variance. Age alone was strongly associated with outcome. Relationships between referral information and test outcome are also reported. IMPACT: Results highlight several factors relevant to the development of more valid and reliable road tests for older drivers.     

Utilization of Photographs for Determining Impact Indicators for Trail Management

Indicators are a key component of resource management, but selecting them can be difficult and controversial. This study explores different methods for selecting impact indicators for management of trail conditions by comparing photo survey methods (PSM) with written survey methods (WSM). A total of 661 subjects participated in interviews conducted within Mudeung- Mountain Provincial Park in Kwang-ju, Korea. PSM explained variation in acceptability better than WSM. Six major photo components (in order of importance: area of large rocks on trail, area of wood steps, area of bare roots, area of bare soil, area of small stones, and area of stone steps) explained 84.7% of the variation in acceptability of trail management conditions. This study suggests that PSM can be a useful tool for selecting impact indicators. Supported by the grant of Post-Doctoral Program, Chonbuk National University (2001)     

Forest Perception and Knowledge of Hikers and Mountain Bikers in Two Different Areas in Northwestern Switzerland

Recreational activities can have major impacts on vegetation and wildlife in frequently visited forests. We assessed forest perception and knowledge (state, functions, and species diversity) among hikers and mountain bikers in a frequently visited, seminatural suburban recreation forest (Muttenz) and in a more distantly situated, naturally grown excursion forest (Wasserfallen) in northwestern Switzerland. In all, 239 hikers and 126 mountain bikers were interviewed. Mountain bikers in both forests and hikers in the more intensely used recreation forest at Muttenz assessed the state of the forest less optimistically and showed a higher awareness of the negative impact of recreational activities on the flora and fauna than hikers at Wasserfallen. Furthermore, mountain bikers seemed aware of the social conflicts caused by their activity, since they appreciated neutral or positive encounters with other forest visitors. In contrast, 57% of hikers at Muttenz reported on negative experiences with other forest visitors, particularly with mountain bikers. In general, the interviewees ecological and biological forest knowledge (forest type and function, species diversity) was rather high. A large proportion was aware of the pros and cons of different forest conditions for plants and animals, and could name or recognize at least some plant and/or animal species typical for the visited forest. The forest knowledge was neither influenced by the type of recreational activity carried out nor by any aspect of forest visit behavior (frequency and duration of forest visits, means of transportation and travel distance to forest). However, the interviewees forest knowledge was influenced by their age and educational level.     

STATUS QUO & DRIVING MECHANISM OF DESERTIFICATION IN THE NORTH TIBETAN PLATEAU

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