IS支持下水质模型的应用

地理信息系统（ＧＩＳ） 是集计算机科学、地球科学、信息科学为一体的高新技术。目前,ＧＩＳ技术已广泛用于资源管理、环境监测、环境评价、灾害评估、区域流域环境规划等众多领域,已成为国内外环境管理的有效决策支持工具。本文介绍了ＧＩＳ技术在金华江流域水污染控制决策方面的应用, 其中重点介绍了在ＧＩＳ支持下,金华江流域水污染决策模型（ 水质模型） 的建立、程序设计和实现     

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: As part of the National Assessment of Climate Change, the implications of future climate predictions derived from four global climate models (GCMs) were used to evaluate possible future changes to Pacific Northwest climate, the surface water response of the Columbia River basin, and the ability of the Columbia River reservoir system to meet regional water resources objectives. Two representative GCM simulations from the Hadley Centre (HC) and Max Planck Institute (MPI) were selected from a group of GCM simulations made available via the National Assessment for climate change. From these simulations, quasi-stationary, decadal mean temperature and precipitation changes were used to perturb historical records of precipitation and temperature data to create inferred conditions for 2025, 2045, and 2095. These perturbed records, which represent future climate in the experiments, were used to drive a macro-scale hydrology model of the Columbia River at 1/8 degree resolution. The altered streamflows simulated for each scenario were, in turn, used to drive a reservoir model, from which the ability of the system to meet water resources objectives was determined relative to a simulated hydrologic base case (current climate). Although the two GCM simulations showed somewhat different seasonal patterns for temperature change, in general the simulations show reasonably consistent basin average increases in temperature of about 1.8–2.1°C for 2025, and about 2.3–2.9°C for 2045. The HC simulations predict an annual average temperature increase of about 4.5°C for 2095. Changes in basin averaged winter precipitation range from -1 percent to + 20 percent for the HC and MPI scenarios, and summer precipitation is also variously affected. These changes in climate result in significant increases in winter runoff volumes due to increased winter precipitation and warmer winter temperatures, with resulting reductions in snowpack. Average March 1 basin average snow water equivalents are 75 to 85 percent of the base case for 2025, and 55 to 65 percent of the base case by 2045. By 2045 the reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt, coupled with higher evapotranspiration in early summer, would lead to earlier spring peak flows and reduced runoff volumes from April-September ranging from about 75 percent to 90 percent of the base case. Annual runoff volumes range from 85 percent to 110 percent of the base case in the simulations for 2045. These changes in streamflow create increased competition for water during the spring, summer, and early fall between non-firm energy production, irrigation, instream flow, and recreation. Flood control effectiveness is moderately reduced for most of the scenarios examined, and desirable navigation conditions on the Snake are generally enhanced or unchanged. Current levels of winter-dominated firm energy production are only significantly impacted for the MPI 2045 simulations.     

珠江三角洲地区酸雨污染简析

以珠江三角洲地区主要城市的降水常规监测数据资料为依据,简要分析了该地区降水酸度和酸雨频率年度变化情况,并对酸雨的危害进行了初步的探讨。研究结果表明:该地区酸雨污染依然严重,降水酸度与二氧化硫污染等因素有关,酸雨类型以硫酸型为主。      

Comparing discriminant analysis, neural networks and logistic regression for predicting species distributions: a case study with a Himalayan river bird

We assessed the occurrence of a common river bird, the Plumbeous Redstart Rhyacornis fuliginosus, along 180 independent streams in the Indian and Nepali Himalaya. We then compared the performance of multiple discrimant analysis (MDA), logistic regression (LR) and artificial neural networks (ANN) in predicting this species’ presence or absence from 32 variables describing stream altitude, slope, habitat structure, chemistry and invertebrate abundance. Using the entire data (=training set) and a threshold for accepting presence in ANN and LR set to P≥0.5, ANN correctly classified marginally more cases (88%) than either LR (83%) or MDA (84%). Model performance was assessed from two methods of data partitioning. In a ‘leave-one-out’ approach, LR correctly predicted more cases (82%) than MDA (73%) or ANN (69%). However, in a holdout procedure, all the methods performed similarly (73–75%). All methods predicted true absence (i.e. specificity in holdout: 81–85%) better than true presence (i.e. sensitivity: 57–60%). These effects reflect species’ prevalence (=frequency of occurrence), but are seldom considered in distribution modelling. Despite occurring at only 36% of the sites, Plumbeous Redstarts are one of the most common Himalayan river birds, and problems will be greater with less common species. Both LR and ANN require an arbitrary threshold probability (often P=0.5) at which to accept species presence from model prediction. Simulations involving varied prevalence revealed that LR was particularly sensitive to threshold effects. ROC plots (received operating characteristic) were therefore used to compare model performance on test data at a range of thresholds; LR always outperformed ANN. This case study supports the need to test species’ distribution models with independent data, and to use a range of criteria in assessing model performance. ANN do not yet have major advantages over conventional multivariate methods for assessing bird distributions. LR and MDA were both more efficient in the use of computer time than ANN, and also more straightforward in providing testable hypotheses about environmental effects on occurrence. However, LR was apparently subject to chance significant effects from explanatory variables, emphasising the well-known risks of models based purely on correlative data.     

巢湖流域旱涝时空特性分析

利用巢湖流域14个站点39年(1961~2000年)的降水观测资料,采用Z指数作为旱涝指标,运用地理信息系统(GIS)等方法,对巢湖流域汛期旱涝的时空变化特征进行了分析探讨,其结果表明:巢湖流域旱涝灾害十分频繁,旱涝灾害发生的频率和降水量呈现正相关关系,具有阶段性和周期性等特性,空间分布上存在一定的结构性,巢湖流域北部为易旱易涝区,西部为易旱区,东南部、南部是易涝区,中北部是不易旱易涝区。     

长江下游重点江段水质污染及对鱼类的毒性影响

通过对长江下游安庆、南京、镇江、南通４江段水质污染及其对鱼类毒性影响的调查监测可发现,长江下游江段主航道水质较好,符合国家地面水Ⅱ类水质标准．但近岸带水质由于受污染带的影响,水质污染较严重,其主要污染物为石油类和挥发酚等．上述这些污染物质对鱼类具有一定的毒性影响,其不但可引起鱼类的急性中毒,而且可诱发鱼类产生微核,并对鼠伤寒沙门氏菌ＴＡ９８菌株表现出一定的致突变性．同时在上述几个江段鱼体内可检出较高的蓄积性污染物的残留量．研究结果显示,长江下游江段正在遭受沿江诸多工业废水的污染,尤其是污染带的作用,并且这种污染对区域性渔业有一定的影响     

从长江洪水看土壤环境保护的重要性

从１９９８ 年长江流域发生的特大洪水说起,分析从汉代到清末２０００ 年间及近４０ 年来长江流域水旱灾害的变化趋势,认为造成长江洪水灾害的原因主要是气候异常,但也与生态环境遭到破坏有关,其中土壤侵蚀、水土流失是最重要的因素。探讨了防治长江水患的对策;基于对土壤的吸水和贮水功能主要靠地被层和土壤有机质层,而水土流失是从植被破坏、地被层消失开始的,以及对古今治水、治土正反两个方面的认识,提出了治水的同时应治土的观点及５ 条有效的途径。     

GC/MS法测定黄浦江水中挥发性有机化合物

采用吹扫捕集装置与GC／MS联用仪的全自动恒流控制,对黄浦江7个断面水样中47种挥发性有机化合物进行了分析。结果表明,被查的47种挥发性有机化合物基本都有检出,其中甲苯、异丙苯的绝对检出量最高。四氯化碳的检出值也较高,吴淞口四氯化碳的平均浓度已经远远超过GB3838—2002《地表水环境质量标准》,并且四氯化碳浓度在黄浦江流域各个断面的分布具有一定规律性。     

黄土丘陵沟壑区生态环境建设中的水问题--以延河流域为例

水在生态环境建设中具有重要的地位,同时生态环境建设也对水文情势产生重要影响,两者密切相关.黄土丘陵沟壑区属于资源性缺水地区,水土流失非常严重,同时这一地区也是生态环境建设特别是植被恢复与重建的重点区域,研究这一地区的水与生态环境建设间的相互关系具有更加重要的意义.根据黄土丘陵沟壑区的典型流域--延河流域的社会经济统计数据、水文站监测数据及土壤水分和植被生长的有关研究,综合分析后认为:①人口快速增长和社会经济高速发展需要更多的水资源支持,生态环境建设用水受到直接威胁;②生态环境建设特别是建成植被减少了河川径流,由于植被蒸腾过度消耗土壤水库中的水分,一些地方出现土壤干层;③水资源的不足不仅限制了进一步的植树种草,而且也对建成植被产生了不利影响,一些地方甚至出现了"小老树",从而使植被的生态环境效益受到影响.在此基础上,通过分析生态环境建设与水的关系,提出了黄土丘陵沟壑区水资源可持续利用、生态环境可持续建设和社会经济可持续发展的建议.     

黄河耗氧性有机物污染特征及泥沙对其参数测定的影响

对黄河干流1980,1992～1999年耗氧性有机物污染监测数据进行了分析,并通过对高锰酸盐指数(CODMn)与泥沙含量监测数据间的相关分析和模拟实验研究,探讨了泥沙对CODMn测定的影响.结果表明:(1)由于泥沙中腐殖质的成分之一富里酸能溶解于酸,在水样加酸处理过程中将进入水相,且富里酸能被化学氧化剂所氧化,但在自然条件下很难发生生物氧化和消耗水体的溶解氧,因此,由于泥沙的影响,CODMn夸大了耗氧性有机物的污染;(2)黄河干流河水的生化需氧量(BOD5)从上游至下游存在增加的趋势;(3)1992年干流河水的BOD5显著大于1980年的BOD5,在1992～1999年间,河水BOD5的年均值存在上升的趋势,枯水期均值存在上升的趋势,而丰水期均值的增长趋势不明显,由此表明,耗氧性有机污染物的点源排放在增加,而面源排放的增长趋势不明显,甚至存在降低的趋势;(4)黄河干流的耗氧性有机污染物主要来自点源排放,BOD5的点源与面源负荷的多年均值之比为2 81.