Identifying climate change refugia for South American biodiversity

Refugia-based conservation offers long-term effectiveness and minimize uncertainty on strategies for climate change adaptation. We used distribution modelling to identify climate change refugia for 617 terrestrial mammals and to quantify the role of protected areas (PAs) in providing refugia across South America. To do so, we compared species potential distribution across different scenarios of climate change, highlighting those regions likely to retain suitable climatic conditions by year 2090, and explored the proportion of refugia inside PAs. Moist tropical forests in high-elevation areas with complex topography concentrated the highest local diversity of species refugia, although regionally important refugia centers occurred elsewhere. Andean–Amazon forests contained climate change refugia for more than half of the continental species’ pool and for up to 87 species locally (17 × 17 km² grid cell). The highlands of the southern Atlantic Forest also included megadiverse refugia for up to 76 species per cell. Almost half of the species that may find refugia in the Atlantic Forest will do so in a single region—the Serra do Mar and Serra do Espinhaço. Most of the refugia we identified, however, were not in PAs, which may contain <6% of the total area of climate change refugia, leaving 129–237 species with no refugia inside the territorial limits of PAs of any kind. Our results reveal a dismal scenario for the level of refugia protection in some of the most biodiverse regions of the world. Nonetheless, because refugia tend to be in high-elevation, topographically complex, and remote areas, with lower anthropogenic pressure, formally protecting them may require a comparatively modest investment.     

On the integrated modelling of coastal changes

This paper introduces a possible approach to integrated modelling of coastal change, focusing on coastal land use and cover change. Some of the mostimportant open issues in the context of integrated modelling of coastal change are introduced. The paper focuses on methdological aspects. Specific reference is made to Physiographic Unit Modelling as an approach to better handle spatial variability and ‘morphogenesis’, and as a way to focus on coastal change mechanisms instead of absolute coastal dynamics for achieving an important simplification of the problem. The application is briefly discussed with reference to a ‘minimal model’. The methodological structure introduced is considered particularly suitable to represent, according to a variable degree of simplification, the integrative dynamics between resources and uses of the resources.     

Physiological changes associated with aging result in lower internal doses of toluene and perchloroethylene in simulations using pharmacokinetic modeling

Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models were developed in order to translate external concentrations into internal dose estimates, but most PBPK models were developed for younger adults. A set of physiological parameters for ages 65, 75, and 85 of both genders were developed and were used with previously established human PBPK models of exposure to toluene and perchloroethylene (PERC) in order to investigate internal dose changes with increasing age. The predicted compartmental concentrations of toluene and PERC for aged adults were lower than predicted concentrations for younger adults, and this suggests that body composition changes with aging do not increase internal doses of inhaled toxicants alone after acute exposure. Hence, susceptibility to either toxicant was not expected to increase solely based on the physiological changes associated with aging. Predictions for a metabolite of PERC, however, were similar in magnitude across ages, which may lead to enhanced susceptibility if metabolic capacity changes with aging.     

Spatial statistics for modeling of abundance and distribution of wildlife species in the Masai Mara ecosystem, Kenya

This study illustrates the use of modern statistical procedures for better wildlife management by addressing three key issues: determination of abundance, modeling of animal distributions and variability of diversity in space and time. Prior information in Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods is used to improve estimates of abundance. Measures of autocorrelation are included when modeling distributions of animal counts, and a diversity index to indicate species abundance and richness for large herbivores is developed. Data from the Masai Mara ecosystem in Kenya are used to develop and demonstrate these procedures. The new abundance estimates are up to 35% more accurate than those obtained by existing methods. Significant temporal changes in spatial patterns are found from a space-time analysis of elephant counts over a 20-year period, with strong interactions over 5 km and 6 months space and time separations, respectively. The new diversity index is sensitive to both high abundance and species richness and is also able to capture year to year variation. It indicates an overall marginal decrease in diversity for large herbivores in the Mara ecosystem. The space-time analyses and diversity index can easily be computed thereby providing tools for rapid decision making.     

城市降雨径流非点源污染分析与研究进展

城市降雨径流污染已经成为非点源污染的一个新生点，通过对城市降雨径流污染的概念、污染物来源及成分分析，系统地整理了有关国内外城市降雨径流污染研究的资料，为我国的城市降雨径流污染的研究提供科学的理论依据。     

Determinants of male spacing behavior in microtines: an experimental manipulation of female spatial distribution and density

Theory on microtine mating systems predicts that male spacing behavior will be related to female spatial and temporal distribution. However, data from a natural population of field voles, Microtus agrestis, indicated a potential influence of female density on the spacing behavior of males. Therefore, I experimentally investigated the relative importance of female density and female spatial distribution for the spacing behavior of males in M. agrestis. Males were radio-tracked in enclosed natural habitats in which females at different densities were placed in two different spatial arrangements: clumped versus even distribution. Female density was the main factor determining male spacing behavior. At the high female density males had smaller home ranges and moved shorter distances between radio-tracking recordings. Also, home ranges were more exclusive at high female density. However, since there was a significant positive correlation between home range size and range overlap, range exclusiveness seemed to be influenced by female density indirectly through the effect of range size. Female spatial distribution, on the other hand, had no influence on male home range exclusiveness.     

Assessing the relation between the distribution of salt-marsh communities and the sediment budget of the North Norfolk coast

Very high resolution imagery from an airborne multi-spectrål scanner has been used to estimate the distribution of different salt-marsh communities along a 30-km stretch of the North Norfolk coast. Field observations have been used to develop a mathematical relationship between the vegetation, physical environment and sediment accumulation. This relationship has been used to produce provisional sediment accretion maps for the north Norfolk coast.     

Testing the impact of social forces on the evolution of Sahelian farming systems: A combined agent-based modeling and anthropological approach

This article presents the results of a methodology based on an extensive sociological fieldwork in three different sites settled along a gradient of aridity in Nigerien Sahel. This fieldwork led to build a set of rules for the behaviour of individuals in non-pastoralist villages. We implemented these rules into an agent-based model simulating three village archetypes. Each archetype includes biophysical, economical, social agricultural and livestock modules. Results from simulations with no social transition processes show that villages specialize themselves into different economic activities according to natural resource specificities: A decreasing intensification gradient is observed from the most favoured site, with more local productions and good ecological indicators, to the less-favoured site, with a growing proportion of the population wealth coming from migration remittances and “off-shore” livestock. Two family transition processes were implemented, following field observations and literature-based hypotheses: family organizations evolve between a patriarchal mode and a non-cooperative mode following tensions due to income redistribution. Family inheritance systems evolve from a “customary” one-heir mode to a “local Muslim” mode in which all males inherits land. This evolution depends on family tensions due to land availability. Once introducing these processes, the population of each site differentiates itself into specialized groups according to size, assets and social status. Meanwhile, the group proportions and specializations strongly vary according to the sites but they are all characterized by the emergence of individualistic family types and the increase of the village populations’ robustness.     

湖北省粮食生产的时空特征演变研究——基于耕地因素分解的视角

"藏粮于地"是新时期保障我国粮食安全的重要战略。分析湖北省粮食生产的时空演变特征,运用LMDI方法对影响粮食产量的耕地利用因素进行分解。结果表明:湖北粮食生产正处于稳定增长时期,但其周期性波动特征并未改变,粮食产量大幅波动的可能性仍然存在;湖北省粮食生产具有明显的中间高,两边低的区位特征;单产提高与复种指数上升是粮食增产的主要因素,种植业结构调整与耕地资源减少导致了粮食减产;由于自然环境与社会经济发展差异,不同区域种植业结构调整的程度与方向、耕地资源的利用方式都不相同。加强耕地资源保护,确保耕地数量不减少,质量不降低;调整耕地利用方式,合理安排耕作制度,优化种植业结构和区域布局;推进农业科技创新,培养新型职业农民,建立稳定的粮食生产队伍是实施"藏粮于地,藏粮于技"战略的有效途径。     

Consequence modeling of a real rupture of toluene storage tank

Chemicals used in paint industry are generally comprised of toxic and inflammable substances; they may cause serious problems for humans and environment if safety conditions are neglected. In 2012, rupture of a toluene tank in a paint factory in Iran claimed lives of two workers near the tank. The present study is formulated in order to model the incident. The results showed the area prone to flash fire occurrence and extension. Furthermore, radiation was measured in terms of distance to the tank. A bund wall is also assumed around the vessel in order to determine its influence on evaporation in flash fire area, radiation, and maximum concentration of vapor cloud. The results provided important hints on minimum and required distance of electrical equipment or electrical enclosure (PLC) installation from vessels as well as suitable distance between the vessels. Finally, preventive recommendations were proposed to reduce the risk of potential accidents.