基于Holt-Winters模型的济南泉域地下水资源保护研究

以济南名泉趵突泉历年的地下水位为研究对象,对2012年5月至2017年11月趵突泉地下水位波动规律进行分析,评价保泉形势,探索保泉供水的有效措施。通过模型的比选,最终确定利用HoltWinters指数平滑加法模型,从时间序列的角度分析预测趵突泉地下水位的变化趋势,并计算出了模型的拟合优度指标和拟合统计量。决定系数R2值为0.897,平稳的R2值为0.627,数值均较大且其余各项拟合优度指标均较好,说明模型的拟合效果整体精度较高。利用模型对2018年趵突泉的地下水位进行了预测并给出了预测值95%的置信区间,预测年平均水位为27.814 m,泉水位波动的峰值为28.291 m、谷值为27.329 m且谷值将出现于2018年的6月份,为近6年来的最低水位值,低于27.6 m的保泉红色警戒线,接近27.01 m的泉水停喷线。预测结果表明:2018年趵突泉将存在潜在停喷的危机,济南市的保泉任务依然严峻。为争取泉水持续喷涌,在此基础上提出了科学保泉建议和节水保泉措施,为济南市评判、预测、调整水系及地下水开采布局提供科学依据。     

江浙沪春节燃放烟花爆竹对垂直大气的影响

基于美国宇航局(NASA)的CALIPSO星载激光雷达L1卫星监测数据,通过分析532 nm总后向散射系数、体积退偏比和色比,对江浙沪地区2009—2014年春节期间大气气溶胶光学与微物理特性进行研究,揭示了江浙沪地区春节期间大气气溶胶散射强度、颗粒规则性与颗粒大小的垂直分布特征.结果表明,燃放烟花爆竹产生的颗粒物主要聚集于对流层中低空,使低层大气散射能力增强、颗粒物尺度增大,使对流层中层大气颗粒物不规则性增强;气溶胶散射能力随高度增大单调减弱,不规则气溶胶在6~8 km高度内占比最大,颗粒随高度增大单调减小;对比各年情况发现,散射能力逐年增强.     

春节期间太原市环境空气质量变化

对包含春节节日的2014年1月16日至2月15日太原市环境空气中O3、NO2、CO、SO2、PM2.5、PM10的质量浓度监测数据进行了统计分析,并就春节期间燃放烟花爆竹及气象因素对空气质量产生的影响利用Pearson分析展开相关研究。结果表明：烟花爆竹集中燃放阶段,O3的质量浓度日变化基本不受其直接影响、呈单峰型,其他污染因子由双峰型变化为明显的三峰型,PM2.5、PM10污染突出,PM10增加速率高于PM2.5,PM2.5/PM10的3个谷值与污染因子的3个峰值相对应;分析气温、相对湿度、风速对CO、PM2.5、PM10的影响均在0.01显著水平上相关,但对于烟花爆竹集中燃放污染水平,气温、相对湿度对其影响不大,风速对其影响较为突出,风向与其有明显的相关性。     

泉州郊区春节燃放烟花时段大气污染特征

研究了泉州郊区2009年春节燃放烟花期闯空气污染特征.采用在线监测和中流量采样器对该时段气溶胶进行了颗粒物实时监测和采集.目的是阐明泉州郊区燃放烟花期间大气中颗粒物、多环芳烃(PAHs)和水溶性离子的浓度及分布特征,探讨其污染物的来源.结果表明,除夕00:57-01:27为颗粒物浓度受燃放烟花影响最大时段,PM205和...     

元宵节期间北京PM_(2.5)单颗粒的物理化学特征

采集2014年元宵节期间北京PM2.5样品,使用场发射扫锚电镜-能谱仪观察北京PM2.5单颗粒的显微形貌和元素组成,并利用图像分析系统对PM2.5的粒径进行分析.结果表明:PM2.5的单颗粒类型以烟尘集合体、矿物颗粒和飞灰为主;烟花爆竹燃放产生的PM2.5是造成元宵节期间北京PM2.5浓度升高的主要原因;PM2.5中总颗粒物个数呈现先升高后降低的趋势;元宵节期间北京PM2.5中大部分颗粒物的粒径小于0.7μm;然而,重污染天气PM2.5中粒径大于0.7μm颗粒物的数量明显高于轻污染天气.     

Protection of urban features during urbanization based on the roles of springs in Jinan

Thirty-seven years since reform and opening up, China has sustained rapid economic growth and urbanization. However, there was inadequate protection of natural, historical, and cultural heritage, especially in the past 17 years, which led to the outcome that urban and rural construction lacked features. To rebuild our urban features during urbanization, and avoid destroying them, we should probe into the reason of lacking features and how to protect them. Therefore, taking Jinan City as an example, this paper explored the crisis and its causes of urban characteristics during the period of rapid urbanization based on discussing roles of spring features, including economic effects, social effects, ecological effects and so on. What is more, this paper listed and analyzed those protection measures taken by Jinan. The results showed that spring groups spewed again and kept for 8 years through those measures, which meant that urban characteristics restored. Thus, Jinan City provides successful and significant reference for other cities in restoring urban features during urbanization construction. Also, the author deemed that cities could recollect their urban features as long as they take reasonable measures.     

百脉泉泉群泉水氢氧稳定同位素时空变化特征

研究泉水氢氧稳定同位素时空变化特征,探究泉水的补给来源,对水资源管理及旅游业可持续发展具有重要指导意义。以百脉泉泉群为研究区,通过分析降水及泉水中的氢氧稳定同位素特征,获取了本地大气降水线、泉水同位素时空变化特征及蒸发线,并探究了百脉泉泉水的补给来源。结果表明：大气降水中δ²H的波动范围为-151.55‰δ¹⁸O—-4.28‰,δ¹⁸O的波动范围为-19.93‰δ¹⁸O—-0.52‰,δ²H和δ¹⁸O在时间上的分布规律相似,均呈现双峰状(“M”型),本地大气降水线(LMWL)为：δ²H=7.58×δ¹⁸O+4.17。百脉泉泉水的δ²H的波动范围为-65.23‰δ¹⁸O—-37.01‰,δ¹⁸O的波动范围为-8.99‰δ¹⁸O—-4.04‰。泉水δ²H—δ¹⁸O均落在本地大气降水线上或...     

Spatial analysis for spring bloom and nutrient limitation in Xiangxi bay of three Gorges Reservoir

The spatial and temporal dynamics of physical variables, inorganic nutrients and phytoplankton chlorophyll a were investigated in Xiangxi Bay from 23 Feb. to 28 Apr. every six days, including one daily sampling site and one bidaily sampling site. The concentrations of nutrient variables showed ranges of 0.02–3.20 mg/L for dissolved silicate (Si); 0.06–2.40 mg/L for DIN (NH₄N + NO₂N + NO₃N); 0.03–0.56 mg/L for PO₄P and 0.22–193.37 μg/L for chlorophyll a, respectively. The concentration of chlorophyll a and inorganic nutrients were interpolated using GIS techniques. The results indicated that the spring bloom was occurred twice in space during the whole monitoring period (The first one: 26 Feb.–23 Mar.; the second one: 23 Mar.–28 Apr.). The concentration of DIN was always high in the mouth of Xiangxi Bay, and PO₄P was high in the upstream of Xiangxi Bay during the whole bloom period. Si seems no obvious difference in space in the beginning of the spring bloom, but showed high heterogeneity in space and time with the development of spring bloom. By comparing the interpolated maps of chlorophyll a and inorganic variables, obvious consumptions of Si and DIN were found when the bloom status was serious. However, no obvious depletion of PO₄P was found. Spatial regression analysis could explained most variation of Chl-a except at the begin of the first and second bloom. The result indicated that Si was the factor limiting Chl-a in space before achieved the max area of hypertrophic in the first and second bloom period. When Si was obviously exhausted, DIN became the factor limiting the Chl-a in space. Daily and bidaily monitoring of Site A and B, representing for high DIN: PO₄P ratio and low DIN:PO₄P ratio, indicated that the concentration of Si was decreased with times at both site A and B, and the dramatically drop of DIN was found in the end monitoring at site B. Multiple stepwise regression analysis indicated that Si was the most important factor affect the development of spring bloom both at site A and B in time series.     

烟花爆竹禁燃对春节期间东北地区空气质量影响评估

利用2015—2017年春节期间东北地区主要大气污染物(PM_(10)、PM_(2.5)、SO_2、NO_2、CO和O3)质量浓度监测资料及相应气象因子(温度、湿度、风速和气压)观测资料,分析了春节期间烟花爆竹禁燃对东北地区空气质量的影响。结果表明:随着东北地区主要城市禁燃力度的增强,空气质量逐年提升,PM_(2.5)和SO_2浓度逐年大幅度下降。禁燃可明显降低城区PM_(2.5)浓度,而由于春节期间污染源整体减少,城区和城郊监测点PM_(2.5)浓度值差异减小。烟花爆竹对PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)浓度影响高于对气体污染物SO_2、NO_2和CO的影响。此外,气象条件对东北地区春节期间禁燃改善空气质量的效果也有明显影响。因此,结合春节期间的气象条件,在东北地区实施禁燃政策动态调整非常必要。     

济南趵突泉泉域水化学特征空间差异性及控制因素分析

为掌握济南趵突泉泉域岩溶地下水水化学特征及离子来源,着眼于趵突泉泉域间接补给区、直接补给区和汇集出露区这3个功能区,以地下水流动系统理论为指导,基于区域自然地理和水文地质条件,分别采集分析了不同功能区的地下水样品,并采用水化学参数统计、多元统计、自组织神经网络（SOM）分析、水化学图形分析和离子比例系数等分析方法,研究各功能区地下水水化学特征空间差异性,并揭示其控制因素.结果表明,由于地下水径流路径的不同,不同功能区水化学参数存在差异,但总的来说趵突泉泉域各功能区地下水均呈碱性,表现出典型的碳酸盐矿物溶解特征;汇集出露区地下水同时受到直接补给区和间接补给区的补给,地下水从间接补给区到汇集出露区水化学类型由HCO₃-Ca型向HCO₃·SO₄-Ca型转变,含水层内存在少量的石膏溶解作用生成了Ca²⁺与SO₄^2-;地下水中离子主要来源于含水层岩石矿物的溶滤作用,同时受阳离子交换作用、矿物溶解-平衡及人类活动的综合影响.趵突泉泉域地下水受人类活动影响较大,人类活动在一定程度上影响了泉域地下水水化学的演化.