An inquiry into the potential of scenario analysis for dealing with uncertainty in strategic environmental assessment in China

Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) inherently needs to address greater levels of uncertainty in the formulation and implementation processes of strategic decisions, compared with project environmental impact assessment. The range of uncertainties includes internal and external factors of the complex system that is concerned in the strategy. Scenario analysis is increasingly being used to cope with uncertainty in SEA. Following a brief introduction of scenarios and scenario analysis, this paper examines the rationale for scenario analysis in SEA in the context of China. The state of the art associated with scenario analysis applied to SEA in China was reviewed through four SEA case analyses. Lessons learned from these cases indicated the word “scenario” appears to be abused and the scenario-based methods appear to be misused due to the lack of understanding of an uncertain future and scenario analysis. However, good experiences were also drawn on, regarding how to integrate scenario analysis into the SEA process in China, how to cope with driving forces including uncertainties, how to combine qualitative scenario storylines with quantitative impact predictions, and how to conduct assessments and propose recommendations based on scenarios. Additionally, the ways to improve the application of this tool in SEA were suggested. We concluded by calling for further methodological research on this issue and more practices.     

The Application of Chemical Leasing Business Models in Mexico

- DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1065/espr2006.02.294 Background, Aim and Scope. To better address the requirements of the changing multilateral order, the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) Cleaner Production Programme, in 2004, developed the new Sustainable Industrial Resource Management (SIRM) approach. This approach is in accordance with the principles decided at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil in 1992. Unlike the traditional approaches to environmental management, the SIRM concept captures the idea of achieving sustainable industrial development through the implementation of circular material and energy flows in the entire production chain and reduction of the amount of material and energy used with greater efficiency solutions. The SIRM approach seeks to develop new models to encourage a shift from selling products to supplying services, modifying, in this manner, the supplier/user relationship and resulting in a win-win situation for the economy and the environment. Chemical Leasing represents such a new service-oriented business model and is currently being promoted by UNIDO′s Cleaner Production Programme. Main Features. One of the potential approaches to address the problems related to ineffective use and over-consumption of chemicals is the development and implementation of Chemical Leasing business models. These provide concrete solutions to the effective management of chemicals and on the ways negative releases to the environment can be reduced. The Chemical Leasing approach is a strategy that addresses the obligations of the changing international chemicals policy by focusing on a more service-oriented strategy. Mexico is one of the countries that were selected for the implementation of UNIDO's demonstration project to promote Chemical Leasing models in the country. The target sector of this project is the chemical industry, which is expected to shift their traditional business concept towards a more service and value-added approach. This is being achieved through the development of company specific business models that implement the above-indicated Chemical Leasing concept with the support from the Mexican National Cleaner Production Centre (NCPC). Results and Conclusions. The implementation of Chemical Leasing in Mexico has proven to be an efficient instrument in enhancing sustainable chemical management and significantly reducing emissions in Mexico. Several companies from the chemical industrial sector implement or agreed to implement chemical leasing business models. Based on the positive findings of the project, several Mexican companies started to negotiate contents of possible Chemical Leasing contracts with suitable business partners. The project further aimed at disseminating information on Chemical Leasing. It successfully attracted globally operating companies in the chemicals sector to explore possibilities to implement Chemical Leasing business models in Mexico. At the international level, the results of the UNIDO project were presented on 20TH September 2005 during a side event of the Strategic Approach to International Chemicals Management (SAICM) Preparation Conference in Vienna. Recommendations and Outlook. To facilitate the promotion and application of Chemical Leasing project at international level, UNIDO is currently developing a number of tools to standardize Chemical Leasing projects. These include, among others, Chemical leasing contract models; Chemical Leasing data base to find partners for chemical leasing; and guidelines to implement Chemical Leasing projects and work programmes.     

战略环境评价理论与方法的初步探讨

以城市规划为对象 ,论述了对城市规划进行战略环境评价的目的意义 ,简述了国内外战略环境评价的进展情况 ,探讨了城市规划战略环境评价的基本内容、评价程序与技术方法     

供应链战略联盟的风险问题研究

供应链战略联盟是指供应链上两个或两个以上的企业 ,为了实现资源共享、风险共担、优势互补等特定的战略目标 ,在保持自身独立性的条件下 ,而建立的较为稳定的合作伙伴关系。供应链战略联盟的合作伙伴在享受共赢的好处时 ,也要承担风险。笔者分析了 3类供应链战略联盟的风险 ;应用SWOT法确定风险发生的领域和影响状况 ;提出建立动态合同和增加敏捷信任以有效防范风险。     

Domestic politics and the formation of international environmental agreements

We investigate the effect of domestic politics on international environmental policy by incorporating into a classic stage game of coalition formation the phenomenon of lobbying by special-interest groups. In doing so, we contribute to the theory of international environmental agreements, which has overwhelmingly assumed that governments make decisions based on a single set of public-interest motivations. Our results suggest that lobbying on emissions may affect the size of the stable coalition in counterintuitive ways. In particular, a powerful business lobby may increase the government's incentives to sign an agreement, by providing it with strong bargaining power with respect to that lobby at the emission stage. This would result in lower total emissions when the number of countries involved is not too large. We also show that things change radically when lobbying bears directly on the membership decisions, suggesting that both the object and timing of lobbying matter for the way in which membership decisions, emissions and welfare are affected.     

Development of a Methodology for Strategic Environmental Assessment: Application to the Assessment of Golf Course Installation Policy in Taiwan

Some countries, including Taiwan, have adopted strategic environmental assessment (SEA) to assess and modify proposed policies, plans, and programs (PPPs) in the planning phase for pursuing sustainable development. However, there were only some sketchy steps focusing on policy assessment in the system of Taiwan. This study aims to develop a methodology for SEA in Taiwan to enhance the effectiveness associated with PPPs. The proposed methodology comprises an SEA procedure involving PPP management and assessment in various phases, a sustainable assessment framework, and an SEA management system. The SEA procedure is devised based on the theoretical considerations by systems thinking and the regulative requirements in Taiwan. The positive and negative impacts on ecology, society, and economy are simultaneously considered in the planning (including policy generation and evaluation), implementation, and control phases of the procedure. This study used the analytic hierarchy process, Delphi technique, and systems analysis to develop a sustainable assessment framework. An SEA management system was built based on geographic information system software to process spatial, attribute, and satellite image data during the assessment procedure. The proposed methodology was applied in the SEA of golf course installation policy in 2001 as a case study, which was the first SEA in Taiwan. Most of the 82 existing golf courses in 2001 were installed on slope lands and caused a serious ecological impact. Assessment results indicated that 15 future golf courses installed on marginal lands (including buffer zones, remedied lands, and wastelands) were acceptable because the comprehensive environmental (ecological, social, and economic) assessment value was better based on environmental characteristics and management regulations of Taiwan. The SEA procedure in the planning phase for this policy was completed but the implementation phase of this policy was not begun because the related legislation procedure could not be arranged due to a few senators’ resistance. A self-review of the control phase was carried out in 2006 using this methodology. Installation permits for 12 courses on slope lands were terminated after 2001 and then 27 future courses could be installed on marginal lands. The assessment value of this policy using the data on ecological, social, and economic conditions from 2006 was higher than that using the data from 2001. The analytical results illustrate that the proposed methodology can be used to effectively and efficiently assist the related authorities for SEA.     

Context and Systems: Thinking More Broadly About Effectiveness in Strategic Environmental Assessment in China

China is an illustrative—and extreme—case of the difficulties of balancing the pursuit of economic, social, and environmental objectives. In 2003 it adopted a form of Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) for its plans and programs (referred to here as PEIA) with the aim of moving towards greater environmental sustainability. The literature has explored primarily the issue of methods and legal procedures. This research contributes to the analysis of PEIA through a different set of interpretative lens. Drawing on recent developments in the theory and practice of SEA, I propose a conceptualization of SEA effectiveness that combines direct and incremental impacts, and a need for context-specific systems as a way to focus on the relationship between assessment, planning, and their context, and thus maximize effectiveness. This framework underpins the analysis of China’s experience, which I explore with the help of interview material and the literature. The result is an evaluation of the strengths and weaknesses of PEIA in terms of its purpose, assessment concept, process, and methods. The detailed analysis of six aspects of the context helps explain the origin of such shortcomings, and identify opportunities for its improvement. I conclude defining elements of a context-specific system for SEA that seeks to maximize the opportunity for incremental, as well as direct, effectiveness in China.     

区域发展战略环境影响跟踪评价初步研究

本文依据区域发展战略环境影响跟踪评价内涵,结合我国实践需要,阐明区域发展战略环境影响跟踪评价技术路线和内容,并进一步提出相关政策建议。研究指出,开展区域发展战略环境影响跟踪评价应坚持基于生态环境需求优先的技术路线、提高跟踪评价的战略性和开展战略环境影响跟踪评价试点。     

Framework for integration of urban planning, strategic environmental assessment and ecological planning for urban sustainability within the context of China

Sustainable development or sustainability has been highlighted as an essential principle in urban master planning, with increasing recognition that uncontrollable urbanization may well give rise to various issues such as overexploitation of natural resources, ecosystem destruction, environmental pollution and large-scale climate change. Thus, it is deemed necessary to modify the existing urban and regional administrative system so as to cope with the challenges urban planning is being confronted with and realize the purpose of urban sustainability. This paper contributed to proposing a mechanism which helps to make urban planning with full consideration of issues with respect to sustainable development. We suggested that the integration of urban planning, SEA and ecological planning be a multi-win strategy to offset deficiency of each mentioned political tool being individually applied. We also proposed a framework where SEA and ecological planning are fully incorporated into urban planning, which forms a two-way constraint mechanism to ascertain environmental quality of urban planning, although in practice, planning and SEA processes may conditionally be unified. Moreover, as shown in the case study, the integration of the three political tools may be constrained due to slow changes in the contextual factors, in particular the political and cultural dimensions. Currently within the context of China, there may be three major elements which facilitate integration of the three political tools, which are (1) regulatory requirement of PEIA on urban planning, (2) the promotion or strong administrative support from government on eco-district building, and (3) the willingness of urban planners to collaborate with SEA experts or ecologists.