基于HFACS的空中相撞事故分析及建议

空中相撞事故往往是由诸多人为差错相互叠加、耦合和作用而导致的,要找出事故的真正诱因,防止类似事故再次发生,难度非常大。为了有效地分析和定位人为差错,以更好地服务于防相撞的管理与决策,提出一种基于人为因素分析分类系统（HFACS）的空中相撞事故分析方法,它按照从显性差错到隐性差错的思路来分析事故的诱因,最终找出组织因素对事故的影响。并利用HFACS对巴西卡欣布上空发生的一起空中相撞事故进行了系统分析。案例分析结果表明,该方法不仅能够找出导致空中相撞事故的人为差错,解释事故发生的原因和过程,而且能够据此提供防止相撞事故发生的安全建议。     

基于CIS理论的绿色大学评价指标体系研究

通过研究绿色大学建设过程中出现的不足,提出构建绿色大学评价指标体系是建设绿色大学的前提。以CIS（企业识别系统）理论为依据,从理念层、行为层和物质层三个层面进行研究,构建了一个由3个一级指标12个二级指标和45个三级指标构成的绿色大学评级指标体系。最后对绿色大学的评价方法进行了简单陈述。     

Increasing land pressure in East Africa: The changing role of cassava and consequences for sustainability of farming systems

Increasing land pressure during the past three to four decades has transformed farming systems in the mid-altitude zone of East Africa. Traditional millet-, cotton-, sugarcane- and/or banana-based farming systems with an important fallow and/or grazing component have evolved into continuously cultivated cassava or cassava/maize-based systems. Within three to four decades, cassava cultivation increased from 1–11 to 16–55% of cropped fields in our six study sites. Declining soil fertility, and not labour or food shortage, was apparently the primary trigger for this transformation. The land use changes have increased nutrient offtakes and reduced nutrient recycling rates. Cassava and maize now account for 50–90% of nutrient removal. Whereas single-season fallows were the most important source of nutrient recycling on cropped fields in the past, currently cassava litterfall and maize stover contribute roughly 70% of nutrient recycling, with 50–70% of N, P and K recycled in cassava litterfall. This may explain why many farmers reason that cassava ‘rests’ the soil. With increasing land use pressure farmers progressively use cassava as an ‘imitation fallow’ throughout their farm. Farmers increasingly target cassava to poor fertility fields characterized by low pH and available P. High cassava intensities are nonetheless maintained on more fertile fields, probably to guarantee regeneration of soil fertility on all fields. Once cassava is targeted to poor fertility soils, farmers have run out of low-input management options and need to intensify management to maintain system productivity. As cassava is now used by more farmers and on a larger acreage than fallowing in the studied farming systems, cassava cropping could perhaps serve as an excellent entry point to strengthen system sustainability.     

我国现行环境统计指标体系改进方向

我国现行环境统计指标体系在指标的选择和可操作性方面存在缺陷和不足,主要表现为污染物排放量的计算方法模糊、污染物排放标准未能得到有效实施、非重点工业排放量取值比例有待调整、污染源调查范围不能与时俱进、环境质量指标体系未纳入环境统计,这些问题需进一步完善,才能更好地适应环境管理工作需要。     

天津景观水体水生生态系统健康体系的建立与评估

综合多学科、多领域,从生物物理、社会经济和人类健康等方面综合考虑,建立了天津市景观河流健康评价指标体系,包括6个因素24个指标。评估了水生态健康程度。寻求人为压力与天津城市河流水生态系统变化之间的联系,识别河流受损原因．验证河流管理措施的有效性,对有效保障水生态安全、科学治水、综合利用水资源等均具有一定的科学指导作用。     

沈阳市推行排污许可证制度的回顾、反思及对策研究

通过对沈阳市实施排污许可证制度的回顾、发现其存在的问题,并对推行排污许可讧制度提供对策与措施。     

流域农业面源污染动态监控系统的建立和运行

提出建立农业面源污染动态监控系统的技术构思,构筑了“辽宁省农业面源污染动态监控系统”的功能及运行机制的构架,阐述了推进此动态监控系统完善的研究方案与系统实施的保证措施。     

Adaptive management in the U.S. National Wildlife Refuge System: science-management partnerships for conservation delivery

Adaptive management is an approach to recurrent decision making in which uncertainty about the decision is reduced over time through comparison of outcomes predicted by competing models against observed values of those outcomes. The National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS) of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is a large land management program charged with making natural resource management decisions, which often are made under considerable uncertainty, severe operational constraints, and conditions that limit ability to precisely carry out actions as intended. The NWRS presents outstanding opportunities for the application of adaptive management, but also difficult challenges. We describe two cooperative programs between the Fish and Wildlife Service and the U.S. Geological Survey to implement adaptive management at scales ranging from small, single refuge applications to large, multi-refuge, multi-region projects. Our experience to date suggests three important attributes common to successful implementation: a vigorous multi-partner collaboration, practical and informative decision framework components, and a sustained commitment to the process. Administrators in both agencies should consider these attributes when developing programs to promote the use and acceptance of adaptive management in the NWRS.     

System dynamics modeling for municipal water demand estimation in an urban region under uncertain economic impacts

Accurate prediction of municipal water demand is critically important to water utilities in fast-growing urban regions for drinking water system planning, design, and water utility asset management. Achieving the desired prediction accuracy is challenging, however, because the forecasting model must simultaneously consider a variety of factors associated with climate changes, economic development, population growth and migration, and even consumer behavioral patterns. Traditional forecasting models such as multivariate regression and time series analysis, as well as advanced modeling techniques (e.g., expert systems and artificial neural networks), are often applied for either short- or long-term water demand projections, yet few can adequately manage the dynamics of a water supply system because of the limitations in modeling structures. Potential challenges also arise from a lack of long and continuous historical records of water demand and its dependent variables. The objectives of this study were to (1) thoroughly review water demand forecasting models over the past five decades, and (2) propose a new system dynamics model to reflect the intrinsic relationship between water demand and macroeconomic environment using out-of-sample estimation for long-term municipal water demand forecasts in a fast-growing urban region. This system dynamics model is based on a coupled modeling structure that takes into account the interactions among economic and social dimensions, offering a realistic platform for practical use. Practical implementation of this water demand forecasting tool was assessed by using a case study under the most recent alternate fluctuations of economic boom and downturn environments.     

Risk reduction concept to provide design criteria for Emergency Systems for onshore LNG plants

The functional safety requirement is widely applied in the process plant industry in accordance with the international standards, such as IEC and ISA. The requirement is defined as safety integrity level (SIL) based on the risk reduction concept for protection layers, from original process risk to tolerable risk level. Although the standards specify both, the Prevention System and the Emergency System, as level of protection layers, the standards specify in detail only the use of the Prevention System (i.e., Safety Instrumented System (SIS)). The safety integrity level is not commonly allocated to the Emergency System (e.g., Fire and Gas System, Emergency Shutdown System and Emergency Depressuring System). This is because the required risk reduction can be normally achieved by only the Prevention System (i.e., SIS and Pressure Safety Valve (PSV)). Further, the risk reduction level for the Emergency System is very difficult to be quantified by the actual SIL application (i.e., evaluated based on the single accident scenario, such as an accident from process control deviation), since the escalation scenarios after Loss of Containment (LOC) greatly vary depending on the plant design and equipment. Consequently, there are no clear criteria for evaluating the Emergency System design. This paper aims to provide the functional safety requirement (i.e., required risk reduction level based on IEC 61508 and 61511) as design criteria for the Emergency System.In order to provide clear criteria for the Emergency System evaluation, a risk reduction concept integrated with public’s perception of acceptable risk criteria is proposed and is applied to identify the required safety integrity level for the Emergency System design. Further, to verify the safety integrity levels for the Emergency Systems, the probabilistic model of the Emergency Systems was established considering each Emergency System (e.g., Fire and Gas System, Emergency Shutdown System and Emergency Depressuring System) relation as the Overall Emergency System. This is because the Overall Emergency System can achieve its goal by the combined action of each individual system, including inherent safe design, such as separation distance.The proposed approach applicability was verified by conducting a case study using actual onshore Liquefied Natural Gas Plant data. Further, the design criteria for Emergency Systems for LNG plants are also evaluated by sensitivity analysis.