灾害基本成因研究

本文依据灾害的生态经济性质,在对各类灾害的具体成因进行概括与抽象的基础上,从地球系统、自然生态系统、社会经济系统、城市系统的运动与发展及灾害与这些系统的相互联系和相互作用等方面研究各类灾害的共同成因,即灾害的基本成因,并对其进行系统分析。     

关于重大隐患监控GIS模式的研究

系统地分析了重大危险源、事故隐患的地域监管体系以及隐患监控的新技术应用基础 ;提出了职业安全卫生监管体系中的危险源和隐患监控 ,应该分为过程安全监控和安全目标监控两个层次。隐患监管功能的有效实现 :隐患监控的技术载体则越来越依托信息网络的发展 ;重大隐患监管体系特别适合采用地理信息系统     

ESTIMATING MARYLAND CRITICAL AREA ACVS IMPACT ON FUTURE NONPOINT POLLUTION ALONG THE RHODE RWER ESTUARY1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents the results of an investigation of the effects of the Maryland Critical Area Act on generation of non-point source loads of phosphorus, nitrogen, and sediment to the Rhode River estuary. The Simple Method model, the Marcus and Kearney regression model, and the CREAMS model were used to estimate annual loads under: (1) present conditions, (2) maximum land use development allowable under the Act, and (3) two sets of future land use conditions that might occur if the Act were not in place. Results indicate that the Critical Area Act can reduce the present generation of nonpoint nutrient and sediment loadings 20–30 percent from the regulated area. These reductions can occur while preserving agricultural lands and allowing limited residential and urban development. The decrease in nutrient loadings is primarily dependent upon implementation and enforcement of agricultural best management practices (BMPs). The BMPs could reduce present agricultural nutrient loadings by 90 percent to a level comparable to loadings from residential areas. The estimated effectiveness of the Critical Area Act is even greater when compared to potential future nutrient loadings if development in the area remains unregulated. Unrestricted residential and urban development could increase nutrient loadings by 200 percent to 1000 percent as compared to controlled development under Critical Area Act guidelines. The Critical Area Act primarily prevents these future increases by severely limiting woodland cutting, with lesser results obtained by requiring urban BMPs.     

论事故与系统危险性的关系

对安全评价中的一些基本概念和参数作了明确的论述,如危险、事故、系统危险性、事故链、固有危险和危险特性、发生事故的难易度与事故概率以及系统可靠度。对澄清当前尚有争论的概念有所帮助,有利于安全评价的顺利进行,也有利于安全科学学科建设。最后对系统危险性的发展趋势作了几点预测。     

SIMULATION/OPTIMIZATION TECHNIQUES FOR MULTI-BASIN WATER RESOURCE PLANNING1

A set of simulation and optimization tools capable of analyzing the development and operation of a complex, multi-basin, interconnected water resource are explained. These models provide valuable information regarding the important questions: (1) “When should new projects be build?” (2) “How big should they be?” and (3) “How should the system be operated?” Since these tools were developed by and for practicing engineers, their applicability to real-world problems is mandatory. To assure this, testing was done on an actual proposed project, the Texas Water System.     

红壤丘陵区土地利用变化对土壤质量影响

以鄂南红壤丘陵典型区的三个村为代表 ,应用地理信息系统对 1981和 1998年两个时期的土地利用变化和土壤质量进行对比研究 ,分析了土地利用变化对土壤质量的影响。结果表明 :研究区土地利用结构总体上具有农业型特点 ,17a间水田减少了 2 1% ;其余的利用方式则有不同幅度的增加 ,居民地、水域、林地、园地和旱地增加了 4 2 .2 %、99.6 %、8%、5 6 .8%和 8%。土壤质量有从优劣两端向中等靠拢的趋势 ,17a后 、 、 和 等地面积分别减少 18.6 %、12 .2 %、2 9.6 %和 2 5 % ; 等地增幅达 5 1.9%。土地利用方式及管理措施是影响土壤质量演变方向和强度的关键因子 ,园地和林地的土壤质量大多得到明显改善 ,水田的Δ SQI多数呈下降的趋势 ,旱地的土壤质量变化比较复杂 ,与土地利用结构相关。依此 ,本文探讨了定向培育土壤质量的途径     

重大事故应急救援法律法规体系建设

重大事故应急救援法律法规体系作为生产安全应急救援体系建设的重要内容之一 ,在重特大事故多发的今天 ,已显得尤为重要。笔者结合国内外重大事故应急救援立法的现状 ,论述加强我国应急救援法律法规体系建设的必要性 ;提出重大应急救援法律法规体系建设要从法律、行政法规及部门规章、地方性法规及规章3个方面进行 ;同时提出建立联席会议制度、应急预案编制审核和备案制度、报告与信息发布制度、应急救援的分级响应制度、应急救援演习制度、应急救援资金补偿制度、应急救援的奖惩制度等急救援工作制度体系。最后 ,还强调建立重大事故应急救援体系对于提高政府对国家危机的管理能力有着深远的影响和意义。     

通才式安全工程专业课程设置的探讨

根据安全工程专业所处的学科结构体系 ,讨论了通才式安全工程专业高等教育课程设置所考虑的因素。提出了通才式安全工程专业高等教育课程的设置思想、专业基础课和主干课的学时比以及实践与理论相结合的实习方法。     

An algorithm for assessing the risk of traffic accident

INTRODUCTION: This study is aimed at developing an algorithm to estimate the number of traffic accidents and assess the risk of traffic accidents in a study area. METHOD: The algorithm involves a combination of mapping technique (Geographical Information System (GIS) techniques) and statistical methods (cluster analysis and regression analysis). Geographical Information System is used to locate accidents on a digital map and realize their distribution. Cluster analysis is used to group the homogeneous data together. Regression analysis is performed to realize the relation between the number of accident events and the potential causal factors. Negative binomial regression model is found to be an appropriate mathematical form to mimic this relation. Accident risk of the area, derived from historical accident records and causal factors, is also determined in the algorithm. The risk is computed using the Empirical Bayes (EB) approach. A case study of Hong Kong is presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. RESULTS: The results show that the algorithm improves accident risk estimation when comparing to the estimated risk based on only the historical accident records. The algorithm is found to be more efficient, especially in the case of fatality and pedestrian-related accident analysis. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The output of the proposed algorithm can help authorities effectively identify areas with high accident risk. In addition, it can serve as a reference for town planners considering road safety.     

事故致因理论的比较分析

本文对事故致因理论进行了总结并对其优缺点进行了介绍,对一些主要的事故致因理论进行了比较,分析了其异同,提出了各自的特点和适用条件,并对其理论发展前景进行了展望。运用事故致因理论对具体事故案例进行了分析,找出了事故原因,提出了预防措施。