LAKE ONTARIO REGULATION UNDER TRANSPOSED CLIMATES1

ABSTRACT: The implications of Lake Ontario regulation under transposed climates with changed means and variability are presented for seasonal and annual time scales. The current regulation plan is evaluated with climates other than the climate for which it was developed and tested. This provides insight into potential conflicts and management issues, development of regulation criteria for extreme conditions, and potential modification of the regulation plan. Transposed climates from the southeastern and south central continental United States are applied to thermodynamic models of the Great Lakes and hydrologic models of their watersheds; these climates provide four alternative scenarios of water supplies to Lake Ontario. The scenarios are analyzed with reference to the present Great Lakes climate. The responses of the Lake Ontario regulation plan to the transposed climate scenarios illustrate several key issues: (1) historical water supplies should no longer be the sole basis for testing and developing lake regulation plans; (2) during extreme supply conditions, none of the regulation criteria can be met simultaneously, priority of interests may change, and new interests may need to be considered, potentially requiring substantial revision to the Boundary Waters Treaty of 1909; (3) revised regulation criteria should be based on ecosystem health and socio-economic benefits for a wider spectrum of interests and not on frequencies and ranges of levels and flows of the historical climate; and (4) operational management of the lake should be improved under the present climate, and under any future climate with more variability, through the use of improved water supply forecasts and monitoring of current hydrologic conditions.     

ALTERED STREAMFLOW AND SEDIMENT ENTRAINMENT IN THE GUNNISON GORGE1

ABSTRACT: The Gunnison River in the Gunnison Gorge is a canyon river where upstream dams regulate mainstem discharge but do not affect debris-flow sediment supply from tributaries entering below the reservoirs. Regulation since 1966 has altered flood frequency, streambed mobility, and fluvial geomorphology creating potential resource-management issues. The duration of moderate streamflows between 32.3 and 85.0 m³/s has increased threefold since 1966. This, along with flood-peak attenuation, has facilitated fine-sediment deposition and vegetation encroachment on stream banks. The Shields equation and on-site channel geometry and bed-material measurements were used to assess changes in sediment entrainment in four alluvial reaches. Sand and fine gravel are transported through riffle/pool reaches at most discharges, but the cobbles and boulders composing the streambed in many reaches now are infrequently entrained. Periodic debris flows add coarse sediment to rapids and can increase pool elevation and the streambed area affected by backwater and fine-sediment accumulation. Debris-flow supplied boulders accumulate on fans and in rapids and constrict the channel until reworked by larger floods. The response to streamflow-régime changes in the Gunnison Gorge could serve as an analog for alluvial reaches in other regulated canyon rivers.     

ECONOMICS OF SCREENING FOR PESTICIDES IN GROUND WATER1

ABSTRACT: In the United States, millions of dollars are currently spent to monitor water quality for a whole suite of organic compounds. However, results of several surveys conducted in the past decade indicate that only a few pesticides occur in a small proportion of wells. Screening methods based on historical evidence of contamination patterns and knowledge of the locales will have significant potential to reduce these costs and effectively identify contamination problems. In this paper, the economics of utilizing two screening methods, sequential analysis and sample compositing, in the design of monitoring strategies is captured In the form of mathematical models and illustrated for a state-level monitoring program. When the two methods are adopted, the total analytical cost to conclusively identify contaminated wells in a network of 4,000 wells is shown to range from $12,500 to $1,575,000 depending on the extent of contamination. In contrast, the total analytical cost of a conventional program where all the wells in the network are sampled and tested for a standard suite of pesticides at a cost of $250/sample is one million dollars. Given such wide range in costs, it is prudent to incorporate the screening concepts presented in this paper in the development of cost-effective monitoring programs.     

ESTIMATING THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING GROUNDWATER QUALITY STANDARDS1

ABSTRACT: A model for estimating the probability of exceeding groundwater quality standards at environmental receptors based on a simple contaminant transport model is described. The model is intended for locations where knowledge about site-specific hydrogeologic conditions is limited. An efficient implementation methodology using numerical Monte Carlo simulation is presented. The uncertainty in the contaminant transport system due to uncertainty in the hydraulic conductivity is directly calculated in the Monte Carlo simulations. Numerous variations of the deterministic parameters of the model provide an indication of the change in exceedance probability with change in parameter value. The results of these variations for a generic example are presented in a concise graphical form which provides insight into the topology of the exceedance probability surface. This surface can be used to assess the impact of the various parameters on exceedance probability.     

AN ANTIDEGRADATION POLICY FOR PRESERVING SURFACE WATER QUALITY IN FLORIDA1

ABSTRACT: As part of its overall system for protecting aquatic systems from unnecessary degradation, the State of Florida provides special protection for water bodies of unusual importance. Such water bodies are designated as “Outstanding Florida Waters” (OFW5). New discharges to OFWs are possible only if certain stringent criteria are met. A new point source direct discharge to an OFW is usually not allowed if it would cause any lowering of ambient water quality. A new indirect discharge (upstream from an OFW boundary) may be allowed only if it would not significantly degrade the OFW. To date, the advantages of the OFW system have clearly outweighed the disadvantages, and OFW designations are helping to protect Florida's most valuable waters from additional degradation. Florida's system could be a useful model for other jurisdictions wanting to provide special protection to special water bodies.     

MEASURING THE SITE-SPECIFIC RECREATION BENEFITS RESULTING FROM IMPROVED WATER QUALITY: AN UPPER BOUND APPROACH1

The estimation of the value of recreation benefits resulting from improved water quality is required for many purposes. In particular, the Water Pollution Control Act of 1980 requires the consideration of the reasonableness of costs of reducing water pollution in relation to benefits to be derived from establishing effluent standards (Clean Water Act of 1977). Recreation is often the most important benefit resulting from water quality improvement. Current methods used to calculate recreation benefits are either not site-specific or are expensive and controversial. This paper presents a relatively simple, inexpensive, and less controversial method of calculating site-specific recreation benefits resulting from improved water quality. It does this by producing an upper bound estimate which often is adequate for the relevant decision. The upper bound estimates is based on two assumptions: 1) there are alternative equivalent substitute sites for the newly augmented water quality site, and 2) the new augmented recreation opportunities at the site will be used to their maximum supply capacity. Clearly, if an upper bound benefit estimate in a cost-benefit ratio does not produce a favorable ratio, no other benefit estimate will. In cases where this estimate produces an ambiguous result resort must be had to other more precise methods of estimation.     

关于建立城市声环境自动监测系统的设想

文章以随机过程“各态历径”理论说明了“定点测量法”与“网格测量法”的内在联系 ,提出了以城市建成区内各类不同环境功能区为基础进行城市声环境自动监测系统监测点位布设的技术规范设想。     

天津市空气质量时间变化规律及相关性分析

按时间段对天津市环境空气监测国控点2005年的SO2、NO2和PM10监测数据进行统计分析,SO2、NO2和PM10时间变化规律呈现典型的双峰双谷型,SO2、NO2污染呈现明显的季节性,而PM10污染相对稳定。对SO2、NO2和PM10在全年、采暖期和非采暖期的时间变化进行相关性分析,结果表明,除了非采暖期NO2和SO2相关性不显著外,其它均存在较强的相关性。     

环境空气质量自动监测系统管理

针对目前我国监测站环境空气自动监测的发展和管理现状,建立健全城市环境空气自动监测的管理制度和相应的技术档案十分必要。     

生态系统调节水量的价值评估——兴山实例

根据植被类型、坡度和土壤类型，分析了兴山县集水区内不同植被地块调节水量的能力。并且根据水能学的原理，分析了枯水期和洪峰期葛洲坝水电站的发电量与水流量的关系，建立了水流发电模拟模型。在上述分析的基础上，评估了兴山县境内生态系统调节香溪河等河流的水量，改善长江全年来水的均匀度，提高葛洲坝水电站发电效率的经济价值。