开拓跨世纪的三峡旅游客源市场

根据近年国家旅游局对三峡旅游市场的统计资料分析 ,研究了三峡骤热骤冷的旅游局面形成的原因 ,提出了重新复苏三峡旅游热点市场的建议。     

黄河黑山峡大柳树坝址区地应力模拟计算及破裂危险性评价

在区域构造应力场模拟的基础上,采用子模型方式提取出黑山峡大柳树坝址区应力边界条件,对大柳树坝址区应力场进行了模拟计算及破裂危险性评价。计算结果显示,大柳树坝址区浅层应力场以水平应力为主,断裂对应力场有明显的控制作用。破裂危险性分析表明,对坝址构造稳定性起决定作用的主要是坝址北侧F 201地震断层的活动,以震源的垂直投影位置看,如果F 201发生强震,其南盘岩体至少5 km范围内将受到严重影响而产生地表破裂,危及坝体安全。     

Principle of the worst scenario in the modelling past and future of biosphere dynamics

The “biosphere–climate” system is subjected to different influences (influx of anthropogenic CO₂ and pollutants, deforestation, harmful land management, biological species depopulation, etc.). Therefore, the vital question arises: “Can these influences lead to irreversible negative changes in the climate–biosphere system or a global ecological catastrophe?” The possibility of irreversible changes may be not very high, but one cannot ignore it. So the main aim of our investigation is to evaluate possible consequences of human impact on the biosphere focusing on irreversible changes of it.     

鳌江水污染特征及防治对策

平阳县环境监测站于1998年2002年对鳌江埭头、江屿、方岩渡、江口渡4个断面的水质进行了监测。结果表明,埭头断面目前属尚清洁．江屿断面属严重污染(以氨氮、挥发酚为主),方岩渡、江口渡断面为中污染段(以氨氮为主)。造成鳌江污染的污染源主要是平阳县的制革废水和鳌江沿岸乡镇的生活污水。提出。环保及各级政府部门应加大对鳌江治理投资,尽快建设排污管网及生活污水处理厂;对无能力进行废水处理的小企业,应予以关闭;提倡使用清洁生产工艺,从源头减少制革废水的污染。     

生态环境立体遥感监测"十四五"发展思路

结合当前生态环境保护总体形势和生态环境监测管理实际需求,讨论生态环境立体遥感监测"十四五"发展思路,提出构建天-空-地一体的生态环境立体遥感监测网络,建立生态环境立体遥感监测业务体系和指标体系,实施三大生态环境立体遥感监测重大工程,更好地指导当前和今后一个时期的生态环境立体遥感监测工作开展。     

The Impact of Perceptual and Situational Factors on Environmental Communication: A Study of Citizen Engagement in China

This study applied a situational approach to understanding an environmental problem: PM2.5 (its resulted haze and smog air pollution) in China. Based on a national sample of 374 citizens living in China, it tested a situational model of problem solving and extended it by adding citizens’ environmental engagement behaviour as an immediate consequence of their communicative action. Results of a structural equation modelling analysis supported all the causal links in the conceptual model. Moreover, communicative action significantly mediated the relationship between referent criterion and environmental engagement. Problem recognition, constraint recognition, and involvement recognition did not influence environmental engagement directly, but exerted their significant indirect impact via two key mediators in the model: situational motivation in problem solving and communicative action in problem solving. Theoretical and practical implications of the present study were discussed.     

焊接工程质量与焊接工程文件

焊接质量只能是过程控制作为国际焊接标准体系中的核心标准ISO 3834给出过程控制手段就是焊接工程文件对不同质量等级对应的文件要求不同,等级越高的焊接产品,其过程控制的文件也越多,控制点更细,保证产品达到高品质要求.与之对比某事故工程的反例,该工程的焊接文件漏项多,过程控制不能保障焊接工程的安全.通过对比国际标准,发现由于国内产品焊接标准不够成熟,没有规定产品GB/T 12467质量等级(类似ISO 3834-2,3,4),因此文件分级欠专业要求.焊接制造业升级必然是标准先行,焊接标准明确质量等级,焊接工程文件体系也将完善,从而为保障焊接工程的安全运行保驾护航.     

Traumatic brain injury mortality among U.S. children and adolescents ages 0–19 years, 1999–2017

IntroductionTo examine recent traumatic brain injury (TBI) mortality changes among Americans aged 0–19 years by sex, age, urbanicity, state, and intent/causes of injury. Method: TBI mortality per 100,000 population and average annual percent changes (AAPCs), plus 95% confidence intervals (CIs) based on Joinpoint regression models. Results: Age-adjusted TBI mortality among Americans aged 0–19 years declined consistently, though at varying rates between 1999 and 2013 (AAPC = −4.8%, 95%CI: −6.3%, −3.2%), and then significantly increased from 4.42 per 100,000 population in 2013 to 5.17 per 100,000 population in 2017 (AAPC = 3.4%, 95% CI: 1.7%, 5.1%). During the study time period, boys, rural children, and youth aged 15–19 years had higher TBI mortality rates than girls, urban children, and younger children, respectively. TBI mortality from unintentional transport crashes decreased substantially in all age groups between 1999 and 2017, and especially from 1999 to 2010. TBI mortality from suicide increased significantly from 2008 to 2017 in the 10–14-year age group (AAPC = 14.6%, 95% CI: 12.6%, 16.6%) and from 2007 to 2017 in the 15–19-year age group (AAPC = 6.3%, 95% CI: 3.8%, 8.7%). Unintentional transport crashes were the leading cause of TBI-related mortality in 46 states in 1999, but by 2017, suicide became the first leading cause in 14 states. Conclusions: Pediatric TBI mortality declined consistently between 1999 and 2013 and increased significantly from 2013 to 2017, driven primarily by the mortality decrease from unintentional transport crashes and increase in suicide mortality. The spectrum of leading causes of pediatric TBI mortality changed across age groups and over time from 1999 to 2017. Practical Applications: TBI mortality increases in the United States since 2013 are driven primarily by increasing suicide rates, a trend that merits the attention of policy-makers and injury researchers. Action should be taken to curb growing TBI mortality rates among adolescents aged 10–19 years.     

基于改进模型的区域生态足迹动态分析——以江苏省南通市为例

20世纪90年代以来,生态足迹模型作为定量化可持续评价的重要理论方法得到了广泛的应用。基于传统生态足迹模型,结合遥感产品净初级生产力数据,构建了基于净初级生产力的生态足迹模型,调整了均衡因子和产量因子,并增加了污染物账户。在此基础上,应用传统模型和改进后的模型分别计算了南通市2000~2013年的生态足迹。结果表明:(1)传统生态足迹模型和改进模型下的南通市2000~2013年人均生态足迹都是稳步增长的,改进后的模型变化较小;(2)南通市2000~2013年生态承载力虽有所波动,但整体上呈下降趋势;(3)南通市连续14年出现生态赤字,从2000年的0.308 6 hm~2/人上升到0.587 7 hm~2/人,生态系统处于不安全状态,生态系统的稳定性降低。可见,改进的生态足迹模型能更准确地反映研究区自然资源利用状况。最后,针对南通市生态不安全状况,从土地结构、能源消费等方面提出减少生态足迹的建议。     

三峡库区重庆段某排污口下游污染物降解研究

采用室内实验测定和野外实测相结合的方法,选取高锰酸盐指数(CODMn)、总氮(TN)、总磷(TP)、氨氮(NH3-N)为污染物监测指标,进行了各污染物降解系数计算及降解规律的分析研究。结果表明:1)在野外实测中,岸边与河流中心的各污染物降解系数有着大致相同的变化趋势,但岸边的降解系数值明显小于河流中心各断面的降解系数值,对比发现,岸边和河流中心的温度、溶解氧、p H值的差距不明显,初步可以判断流速对污染物的降解影响较显著,且流速越大,降解系数也越大;2)室内实验测定中,流速在0.4~2.0 m/s,降解系数值伴随流速的增大而逐渐增加,与野外实测法所得规律相同,也反映出流速对污染物的降解有较显著影响。基于此,应用了结构方程模型定量研究污染物降解系数与影响因子间的响应关系,结果表明:流速对污染物降解的影响较大,为污染物降解较重要的影响因子之一。最后,以结构方程模型研究结果为依据,以影响较大的因子流速为自变量,降解系数为因变量,以野外现场实测的实验数据作为基础数据,拟合得出由流速确定河流污染物降解系数的经验公式,在研究条件范围内可运用这些经验公式迅速求出污染物降解系数。