淄博市SO2与PM10垂直空间变化规律及其相关性分析

本文对淄博市环境空气中主要污染物SO2和PM10在不同高度的浓度值进行分析,找出污染物垂直空间分布规律;并利用SO2和PM10日均浓度值分析两者之间的相关性,为淄博市环境空气质量进一步控制治理提供一定依据。研究结论如下：淄博市垂直空间SO2、PM10浓度变化基本呈随高度增加而逐步降低趋势;同时SO2和PM10浓度呈现较为明显的相关性。为进一步改善淄博市环境空气质量,不仅要在城市规划中充分考虑给城区以自然通风通道,增加城市对污染物扩散稀释的能力,而其要在开展针对建陶、水泥等行业专项行动,降低工业粉尘排放,加强对城区内市政、房地产建筑工地的监督管理,减少道路和建筑扬尘的同时,加强对SO2排放企业尤其燃煤企业的监管力度,控制SO2排放量,也会相应的进一步降低PM10浓度。     

三江平原湿地生态环境状况研究

采用微观监测和宏观监测相结合的方式,对三江平原湿地类型与面积、湿地水质、生物多样性进行了研究,并分析近5年内湿地景观的变化情况。结果显示:三江平原湿地以沼泽湿地为主,部分地区湿地水质受到污染,主要污染物为高锰酸盐指数、生化需氧量、氨氮和石油类;湿地生物多样性丰富;2004～2009年,三江平原各类湿地面积变化很小。     

基层环保部门推进污染减排效能的探讨

针对基层环保部门的特点,如何在推进污染减排工作中抓住要素,提高效能,充分发挥作用,实现预期目标进行了探讨。     

基于生态环境现状监测的非生长季节植被监测因子筛选——以元上都遗址周边环境监测调查为例

本文以元上都申遗项目环境监测调查为例,在植物凋落生态学原理的基础上,筛选出适合评价非生长季节生态环境现状的植被监测因子;为加快区域生态环境现状监测调查与评价的进展奠定了基础。     

Implications of sustainable aquaculture in future technology transfer: The Oceanic Institute experience

SUMMARY

Aquaculture has provided an alternative animal protein source for people for decades. The transfer of improved aquaculture technology has assisted economic growth in less developed countries by such donor countries as the USA, Japan, the European economic communities, Canada and Australia. Donor agencies provided funding for purchasing advanced equipment, professional training, professional consultation, and experts to advise recipient countries. The level of success varied for each project.

The Oceanic Institute (OI) in Hawaii has engaged in aquaculture development in many regions for decades. The successful transfer of finfish fry production technology has been demonstrated recently in Indonesia and Egypt. Past experience provides a foundation for the next generation of technology transfer, involving consideration of socioeconomics.

This paper examines the difficulties encountered in traditional technology transfer, and the need for sustainable aquaculture development in recipient countries.     

经济全球化能够有效抑制“一带一路”沿线国家的生态足迹吗?——来自动态门槛面板模型的经验证据

基于1993-2013年“一带一路”沿线55个国家的平行面板数据,运用Hansen动态面板门槛模型,以经济发展水平（人均GDP）为门槛变量,检验经济全球化与生态足迹之间的关系。研究结果表明：在不同的经济门槛范围内,经济全球化对生态足迹存在不同的影响。当经济发展水平小于等于3905美元时,经济全球化水平的提高能够显著降低生态足迹;当经济发展水平超过第一门槛值3905美元时,经济全球化水平对生态足迹的影响从显著抑制转变为促进作用,但是不显著;而当经济发展水平跨越第二门槛值8778美元时,经济全球化水平的提高能够显著刺激生态足迹的提高。当前“一带一路”沿线国家主要集中在第一门槛区间和第三门槛区间,经济全球化对生态足迹的影响出现两极分化态势,其中在第三门槛区间的国家在参与全球化的过程中应对资源的可持续利用引起充分重视,这关系到全球化的可持续发展和“一带一路”建设的顺利推进。     

Risk-based inspection for large-scale crude oil tanks

Periodic Internal Inspection Method often results in under-inspection or over-inspection for large-scale crude oil tank. Therefore, how to determine reasonable internal inspection interval (INTII) has great significance on balancing the safe operation requirement and inspection cost for crude oil tanks. Here, RBI (risk-based inspection) technology is used to quantitatively assess the risk of crude oil tanks in an oil depot in China. The risk comparison between tank shell and bottom shows that the risk of tank depends on the risk of tank bottom. The prediction procedure of INTII for crude oil tanks is also presented. The INTII predicted by RBI method is gradually extended with the increasing of the acceptable risk level. The method to determine the acceptable risk of crude oil tanks is proposed, by which 3.54E+04 are taken as the acceptable risk of the oil depot. The safety factor of 0.8 is proposed to determine the final INTIIs for 18 crude oil tanks. The INTII requirement in China code SY/T 5921, 5-7 years, is very conservative and lower than predicted service life of tanks. The INTIIs predicted by Gumbel method are smaller than by RBI method for tanks with short INTII. Therefore, this paper recommends RBI method to predict the INTII for crude oil tanks.     

Socio-economic driving forces of land-use change in Kunshan, the Yangtze River Delta economic area of China

This paper analyzes characteristics, major driving forces and alternative management measures of land-use change in Kunshan, Jiangsu province, China. The study used remote sensing (RS) maps and socio-economic data. Based on RS-derived maps, two change matrices were constructed for detecting land-use change between 1987 and 1994, and between 1994 and 2000 through pixel-to-pixel comparisons. The outcomes indicated that paddy fields, dryland, and forested land moderately decreased by 8.2%, 29% and 2.6% from 1987 to 1994, and by 4.1%, 7.6% and 8% from 1994 to 2000, respectively. In contrast, the following increased greatly from 1987 to 1994: artificial ponds by 48%, urban settlements by 87.6%, rural settlements by 41.1%, and construction land by 511.8%. From 1994 to 2000, these land covers increased by 3.6%, 28.1%, 23.4% and 47.1%, respectively. For the whole area, fragmentation of land cover was very significant. In addition, socio-economic data were used to analyze major driving forces triggering land-use change through bivariate analysis. The results indicated that industrialization, urbanization, population growth, and China's economic reform measures are four major driving forces contributing to land-use change in Kunshan. Finally, we introduced some possible management measures such as urban growth boundary (UGB) and incentive-based policies. We pointed out that, given the rapidity of the observed changes, it is critical that additional studies be undertaken to evaluate these suggested policies, focusing on what their effects might be in this region, and how these might be implemented.     

降维方法在广西前汛期降水预测中的应用

对广西88个站前汛期(4～6月)降水距平百分率作自然正交展开(EOF分解),选取累积方差贡献接近70%的前5个主成分为预报量.从前期大气环流场和海温场中分别查找预报因子,进一步对初选预报因子作降维处理,分别选取其中与5个预报分量相关程度高的主成分建立5个预报方程.经独立样本预报试验证明,该方法对广西前汛期降水趋势具有较好的预测能力.     

中国北方地区沙尘暴变化趋势初探

沙尘暴是一种重要的环境问题和自然灾害，是土地沙漠化程度的重要指标。本文利用１９５１～１９８０年的整编气候资料、１９８１～１９８７年中国地面气象记录月报资料和１９９３～１９９４年的两个沙尘暴个例资料，对我国北方地区沙尘暴的空间分布和时间变化及其成因作了初步探讨，并对未来的变化趋势进行了初步预测。结果表明：沙尘暴主要发生在我国西北地区，且有两个多发中心区，即塔无拉玛干沙漠的西南部和甘肃河西走廊东部。沙尘暴主要发生在春季，尤以四月份最多；沙尘暴的形成是地形、地表沙尘物质、有利的急浪位置、低层大气的不稳定和锋面过境后的大风五种基本因素相互作用的结果；就整个北方地区而言，１９５１～１９８７年沙尘暴出现日数总的趋势是波动式减少的，但不同干旱气候区略有差异；本世纪末到下世纪中叶，整个北方地区沙尘暴总的趋势将呈波动式增加（约比１９５１～１９８７年的平均值增加７％）。