Potential coastal impacts of contemporary changing climate on South Asian seas states

The threat of man-induced global change on the nations of the South Asian seas region varies from place to place because of differences in exposure to monsoons and stoms, differences in local tectonics and subsidence, and variations in air and sea climates. Because several nations are involved, some having subsistence budgets, and given the cost of deriving independently a comprehensive response to global change, the similarities and differences between national settings must be identified soon. These comparisons will form the basis for local response strategies: the similarities provide a basis for responses similar to that of other nations and the differences provide for local adaptation. That climate change on the South Asian coastal region will have an impact is certain: its economics, environment, and coastal land uses are dominated to a certain extent by this marine influence. The extent of these impacts, however, is uncertain. Accompanying global change will be changes in sea level, differences in storm climate, and altered precipitation patterns; science cannot define today what pattern these changes will take. Because global change is inevitable—although its magnitude, timing, and geographic distribution are unknown—the South Asian seas region should begin the appropriate research and planning studies to set forth a reasoned response to global change, for implementation when scientific evidence for global change is more quantitative.     

Joint implementation: Biodiversity and greenhouse gas offsets

One of the most pressing environmental issues today is the possibility that projected increases in global emissions of greenhouse gases from increased deforestation, development, and fossil-fuel combustion could significantly alter global climate patterns. Under the terms of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, signed in Rio de Janeiro during the June 1992 Earth Summit, the United States and other industrialized countries committed to balancing greenhouse gas emissions at 1990 levels in the year 2000. Included in the treaty is a provision titled Joint Implementation, whereby industrialized countries assist developing countries in jointly modifying long-term emission trends, either through emission reductions or by protecting and enhancing greenhouse gas sinks (carbon sequestration). The US Climate Action Plan, signed by President Clinton in 1993, calls for voluntary climate change mitigation measures by various sectors, and the action plan included a new program, the US Initiative on Joint Implementation. Wisconsin Electric decided to invest in a Jl project because its concept encourages creative, cost-effective solutions to environmental problems through partnering, international cooperation, and innovation. The project chosen, a forest preservation and management effort in Belize, will sequester more than five million tons of carbon dioxide over a 40-year period, will become economically selfsustaining after ten years, and will have substantial biodiversity benefits.     

THE TIGER IN THE DINING ROOM: DESIGNING AND EVALUATING INTEGRATED ASSESSMENTS OF ATMOSPHERIC CHANGE

Integrated assessments (IAs) and integrated assessment models (IAMs) arerecent responses to the inter-disciplinary challenges provided by complexglobal environmental issues such as atmospheric change. This paper discussesan array of integrated assessments, providing an overview of the role of IAsas bridges or foundations for epistemic communities. Formal as well associal, political, and ethical issues are presented. As well as a definition of anIA and an IAM, different forms and approaches of current or proposed IAsare reviewed. Particular stress is laid on the need to maintain the integrity ofthe diverse components of an IA. Finally, reference is made to the need tounderstand the underlying ethical and normative concerns that have promotedthe current interest in IA.     

植物硅酸体研究在黄土古气候恢复中的应用

地表植被对环境变化的响应最为敏感 ,沉积物中保存的各种植物残余是古环境研究的良好材料 ,植物硅酸体因其特有的物理化学性质 ,成为古气候信息的绝佳载体。在大量现代植物研究基础上 ,科学家们通过对第三纪以来各种沉积物中硅酸体组合的研究 ,较好地恢复了当时的古植被、古气候及其演化特征 ,在缺乏其它化石依据的黄土地层研究中表现更为突出。由于C3、C4 植物具有明显不同的环境适应性和同位素组成 ,地层中C3、C4 植物硅酸体相对含量和稳定同位素的研究也被成功地应用于古气候恢复中。在现代气候—植被类型和土壤植物硅酸体同位素研究基础上 ,利用数理统计方法 ,建立同位素指标与各种气候因子之间的数学关系 ,将为高分辨率黄土古气候定量研究开辟新的途径。     

Adaptation and mitigation: trade-offs in substance and methods

Adaptation to climate change and mitigation of climate change are policy substitutes, as both reduce the impacts of climate change. Adaptation and mitigation should therefore be analysed together, as they indeed are, albeit in a rudimentary way, in cost-benefit analyses of emission abatement. However, adaptation and mitigation are done by different people operating at different spatial and temporal scales. This hampers analysis of the trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation. An exception is facilitative adaptation (enhancing adaptive capacity), which, like mitigation, requires long-term policies at macro level. Facilitative adaptation and mitigation not only both reduce impacts, but they also compete for resources.     

小兴安岭过去5000年的泥炭δ~(13)C记录

小兴安岭植物体中δ13C不仅受区域湿度变化控制,也受温度变化控制。泥炭纤维素的δ13C曲线,较好地响应了小兴安岭地区过去5000年来气候,特别是温度和湿度的演变过程。5.1～3.0kaBP、3.0～1.8kaBP、1.8kaBP迄今,小兴安岭经历了3个千年尺度的气候波动,气候演变过程为温暖湿润→温凉较湿→冷凉较湿。在千年尺度的气候波动上,又叠加着百年尺度的气候变化,在3.0kaBP以来更为显著。相应的,泥炭发育也经历了从富营养、中营养到贫营养阶段。     

Climate Change and Local Pollution Effects – An Integrated Approach

Few studies on measures for mitigation of damage caused by man-made emissions to the environment have tried to consider all major effects. We illustrate the importance of an integrated approach by estimating costs and benefits of a proposed energy saving program for Hungary, originally designed to reduce CO2 emissions. The dominant benefit of implementing the program is likely to be reduced health damage from local pollutants. Also reduced costs of material damage and to a lesser extent vegetation damage contribute to make the net benefit considerable. Compared to the reduction in these local and regional effects, the benefits from reducing greenhouse gases are likely to be minor. Since local effects in general occur much earlier after measures have been implemented than effects of increased emissions of greenhouse gases, inclusion of local effects makes evaluation of climate policy less dependent on the choice of discount rate. In our opinion, similar results are likely for many measures originally designed to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases particularly in some areas in developing countries with high local pollution levels. Main uncertainties in the analysis, e.g. in the relationships between damage and pollution level, are discussed.     

Climate Change Projections for the United States Midwest

Environmental and societal factors such asair quality, water quality andavailability, land use changes andexpanding urbanization are alreadyaffecting human health and welfare,agriculture, and natural ecosystems in theMidwestern United States. Over thiscentury, these existing stresses willlikely be exacerbated by climate changesresulting from human activities. It isessential that policy decisions aimed atpreserving the well-being of a region beinformed by a good understanding of theregion's climate, how climate might change,and the uncertainties inherent in futureprojections. Recent updates in climatemodeling expertise and an expanded view ofpossible non-intervention emissionscenarios have narrowed the range of changethat can be expected over the Midwestthroughout the next century in some ways,while broadening it in others. In contrastto previous studies, which generallyconsider a mid-range scenario for futureemissions, this study presents the range ofchange that would result from low to highscenarios for climate change. In this waywe account for uncertainties inanthropogenic forcing on climate change inthe region and quantify the potentialeffects of human actions on future climate.This analysis also combines the latestclimate model projections with historicalrecords of observed climate over the pastcentury, effectively placing potentialchanges in extreme event frequencies suchas heavy rainfall events and temperaturethreshold exceedances within the context ofobserved variability over the past century.The purpose of this study is to provide anupdated picture of the potential impacts ofclimate change on the Midwest to inform theimpact assessment and policy developmentcommunity. From the magnitude of thechanges projected by this study, it isclear that these must be included in futurepolicy decisions in order to ensure thesuccessful adaptation and survival ofexisting human and natural systems in theMidwest.     

Estimating baseline carbon emissions for the Eastern Panama Canal watershed

To participate in the potential market for carbon credits based on changes in the use and management of the land, one needs to identify opportunities and implement land-use based emissions reductions or sequestration projects. A key requirement of land-based carbon (C) projects is that any activity developed for generating C benefits must be additional to business-as-usual. A rule-based model was developed and used that estimates changes in land-use and subsequent carbon emissions over the next twenty years using the Eastern Panama Canal Watershed (EPCW) as a case study. These projections of changes in C stocks serve as a baseline to identify where opportunities exist for implementing projects to generate potential C credits and to position Panama to be able to participate in the emerging C market by developing a baseline under scenarios of business-as-usual and new-road development. The projections show that the highest percent change in land use for the new-road scenario compared to the business-as-usual scenario is for urban areas, and the greatest cause of C emission is from deforestation. Thus, the most effective way to reduce C emissions to the atmosphere in the EPCW is by reducing deforestation. In addition to affecting C emissions, reducing deforestation would also protect the soil and water resources of the EPCW. Yet, under the current framework of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), only credits arising from reforestation are allowed, which after 20 years of plantation establishment are not enough to offset the C emissions from the ongoing, albeit small, rate of deforestation in the EPCW. The study demonstrates the value of spatial regional projections of changes in land cover and C stocks: The approach helps a country identify its potential greenhouse gas (GHG) emission liabilities into the future and provides opportunity for the country to plan alternative development pathways. It could be used by potential project developers to identify which types of projects will generate the largest C benefits and provide the needed baseline against which a project is then evaluated. Spatial baselines, such as those presented here, can be used by governments to help identify development goals. The development of such a baseline, and its expansion to other vulnerable areas, well positions Panama to respond to the future market demand for C offsets. It is useful to compare the projected change in land cover under the business-as-usual scenario to the goals set by Law 21 for the year 2020. Suggested next steps for analysis includeusing the modeling approach to exploreland-use, C dynamics and management ofsecondary forests and plantations, soilC gains or losses, sources ofvariability in the land use and Cstock projections, and other ecologicalimplications and feedbacks resulting fromprojected changes in land cover.     

新排污收费条例对燃煤电厂的影响探析

《排污费征收和管理条例》(简称新《条例》)的实施是我国排污收费制度的重大变革，对相关行业将产生不同程度的影响。着重分析了新《条例》的实施对燃煤电厂的不利影响，以及对企业增加环保投入治理污染的推动作用。