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A dynamic simulation model was constructed using outputs from a balanced Gulf of Maine (GOM) energy budget model as the initial parameter set. The model was structured to provide a recipient control set of dynamics, largely based off of flows to and from different biological groups. The model was used to produce Monte Carlo simulations that were compared (percent change in biomass) with basecase simulations for a variety of scenarios. Changes in primary production, large increases in pelagic and demersal fish biomass, increases in fishing mortality, and large increases in top predators such as baleen whales and pinnepids were simulated. These scenarios roughly simulated the potential impacts of climate change, altered fishing pressure, additional protected species mitigations, and combinations thereof. Results suggest that the GOM system is primarily influenced by bottom-up processes involving phytoplankton, zooplankton, and bacterial biomass. Pelagic and demersal fish were important in determining trends in some of the scenarios. Marine mammals, large pelagic fish, and seabirds have a minor role in the GOM system in terms of biomass flows among the ecosystem components. The system is resilient to large-scale change due, in part to many predator–prey linkages. However, major alterations could occur from sustained climate change, high fishing rates, and by combinations of these types of external forcing mechanisms. 相似文献
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江苏沿海为全国最大的互花米草人工盐沼区,面积达1.25×104hm2以上。江苏滩涂围垦由来已久,随着条件较好的潮上带已大部分被围垦,自然盐沼日趋减少,互花米草已成为许多岸段的主要建群物种;同时,新围区的起围高程逐渐降低,围垦难度也在增加。互花米草具有强生命力、高生产力和扩张优势,其立地条件、生态位对滩面的动态变化、拟围区起围高程及围堤走向有着指示作用。以海州湾顶区为例,选择3个实测断面及1978-2003年8个时相的卫片,分析了海州湾顶区海岸动态变化及互花米草盐沼的扩展,得出该岸段稳定淤长,最大速率为20m/a,老海堤外高滩面积已超过300hm2,高滩外互花米草分布宽带在200~1200m之间,已具备围垦的初步条件;根据互花米草生态位及平均高潮线,确定拟围区起围高程为2.84m。但是,围垦活动必须考虑到海州湾开敞型海湾的复杂性及其对临洪河口和排水闸的影响,并保证盐沼湿地的恢复能力。 相似文献
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We have reviewed the results of 10000 2nd trimester amniocenteses performed at our centre. Over 80 per cent of these were done only because of maternal age (MA); there were three times as many < 35 year-old women in 1984 compared to 1975. Of women aged 30–34 years at delivery 0·69 per cent were found to have a MA-related chromosome abnormality compared to 0·94 per cent in those aged 35–40 years. Because only about 7 per cent of births occurred to women ⩾ 35 years and 18·6 per cent between 30–34 years, and a practical utilization rate of 50 per cent, we recommend that amniocentesis be made available to women aged ⩾ 30 years. We believe that 27 per cent of Down syndrome (DS) pregnancies could be identified if 50 per cent of pregnant women in this age category availed themselves of the test. With the same utilization rate, about three times as many amniocenteses would be required in California as performed here in 1983. 相似文献
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Dr.ssa Patrizia Borri Ivo Noci Roberto Biagiotti Francesca Torricelli Alberino D'Agata Donatella Croci Francesco Branconi 《黑龙江环境通报》1993,13(12):1095-1099
The aim of this study was to evaluate the concentration of CA 125 in second trimester amniotic fluid from Down syndrome pregnancies. CA 125 was measured in stored amniotic fluid samples from pregnancies of 14–19 weeks' gestation with and without Down syndrome fetuses. CA 125 levels were expressed in multiples of the median (MOM) for normal pregnancies of the same gestational age. Twenty-one pregnancies with Down syndrome fetuses and 63 unaffected controls matched for maternal age, gestational age, and duration of storage were studied. The median MOM values of the affected pregnancies were significantly higher than those of the controls (1·41 MOM versus 0·99 MOM). These findings show that there is an increased concentration of CA 125 in second-trimester amniotic fluid from Down syndrome pregnancies. 相似文献
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