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A dynamic simulation model was constructed using outputs from a balanced Gulf of Maine (GOM) energy budget model as the initial parameter set. The model was structured to provide a recipient control set of dynamics, largely based off of flows to and from different biological groups. The model was used to produce Monte Carlo simulations that were compared (percent change in biomass) with basecase simulations for a variety of scenarios. Changes in primary production, large increases in pelagic and demersal fish biomass, increases in fishing mortality, and large increases in top predators such as baleen whales and pinnepids were simulated. These scenarios roughly simulated the potential impacts of climate change, altered fishing pressure, additional protected species mitigations, and combinations thereof. Results suggest that the GOM system is primarily influenced by bottom-up processes involving phytoplankton, zooplankton, and bacterial biomass. Pelagic and demersal fish were important in determining trends in some of the scenarios. Marine mammals, large pelagic fish, and seabirds have a minor role in the GOM system in terms of biomass flows among the ecosystem components. The system is resilient to large-scale change due, in part to many predator–prey linkages. However, major alterations could occur from sustained climate change, high fishing rates, and by combinations of these types of external forcing mechanisms. 相似文献
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多溴联苯醚(polybrominated diphenyl ethers,PBDEs)是一类常用的溴代阻燃剂,由于使用广泛,已成为普遍存在的环境污染物。研究表明,PBDEs具有内分泌干扰作用,影响甲状腺功能,对胚胎发育、婴幼儿及儿童的健康存在潜在的危害。本研究采集了100例具羊水穿刺指征的孕妇的孕中期羊水样本,采用罗氏全自动电化学发光免疫分析仪测定羊水中促甲状腺激素(TSH)、三碘甲状腺原氨酸(TT3)、游离三碘甲状腺原氨酸(FT3)、甲状腺素(TT4)、游离甲状腺素(FT4)、抗甲状腺过氧化酶抗体(TPOA)和抗甲状腺球蛋白抗体(TGA)的含量,用气相色谱-负化学源-质谱法测定羊水样品中16种PBDEs同系物含量。结果显示,羊水中TSH、TT3、FT3、TT4、FT4中位数分别为0.342μIU·m L-1、0.949 nmol·L-1、1.52 pmol·L-1、11.02 nmol·L-1和3.91pmol·L-1,95%参考区间值分别为0.174~0.872μIU·m L-1、0.835~1.01 nmol·L-1、1.26~2.72 pmol·L-1、9.42~20.68 nmol·L-1和2.16~6.35 pmol·L-1。具有唐氏筛查高风险和甲状腺激素水平低下的羊水样品中共检出6种BDEs(BDE-47、BDE-71、BDE-138、BDE-183、BDE-190、BDE-209),其中BDE-71、183和190在被检羊水样品中均被检出,并且,TSH水平低下的羊水中BDE-190和209负荷水平显著高于正常组。这些结果提示,大连地区孕中期妇女羊水存在PBEDs内暴露,并且PBDEs内暴露可能与羊水的甲状腺激素水平低下、尤其TSH水平升高有关,提示PBDEs暴露可能与胎儿中枢神经系统损伤产生的下丘脑-垂体-甲状腺(HPT)轴功能失调有关。因此,羊水PBDEs内暴露对新生儿出生结局的影响值得进一步关注。 相似文献
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Tensions between amenity- and timber-based economies in the U.S. and Canadian Pacific Northwest motivated a study of scenic beauty inside mature forests and timber harvests. A diverse sample of regional forests, measures of forest structure, and large, representative samples of photographs and public judges were employed to measure scenic beauty inside un-harvested mature and old-growth forests, and timber harvests. The latter varied systematically in down wood levels and retention level and pattern. Scenic beauty tended to be optimized at a basal area of 110–155 m3/ha and/or 700–900 trees/ha. Older forests and those with larger trees were perceived to be more beautiful. In harvests, greater retention levels, less down wood, and dispersed rather than aggregated retention patterns contributed to aesthetic improvements. Green-tree retention harvests offer considerable potential gains in perceived scenic beauty compared to perceived very ugly clearcuts, particularly at higher retention levels. These gains are more reliable from dispersed retention patterns. The silvicultural parameters studied change strength in affecting scenic beauty with changes in retention level. These interactions are explored in relation to a range of scenic quality objectives as an aid to planners, visual impact analysts, and silviculturists. 相似文献
125.
We have reviewed the results of 10000 2nd trimester amniocenteses performed at our centre. Over 80 per cent of these were done only because of maternal age (MA); there were three times as many < 35 year-old women in 1984 compared to 1975. Of women aged 30–34 years at delivery 0·69 per cent were found to have a MA-related chromosome abnormality compared to 0·94 per cent in those aged 35–40 years. Because only about 7 per cent of births occurred to women ⩾ 35 years and 18·6 per cent between 30–34 years, and a practical utilization rate of 50 per cent, we recommend that amniocentesis be made available to women aged ⩾ 30 years. We believe that 27 per cent of Down syndrome (DS) pregnancies could be identified if 50 per cent of pregnant women in this age category availed themselves of the test. With the same utilization rate, about three times as many amniocenteses would be required in California as performed here in 1983. 相似文献
126.
Dr.ssa Patrizia Borri Ivo Noci Roberto Biagiotti Francesca Torricelli Alberino D'Agata Donatella Croci Francesco Branconi 《黑龙江环境通报》1993,13(12):1095-1099
The aim of this study was to evaluate the concentration of CA 125 in second trimester amniotic fluid from Down syndrome pregnancies. CA 125 was measured in stored amniotic fluid samples from pregnancies of 14–19 weeks' gestation with and without Down syndrome fetuses. CA 125 levels were expressed in multiples of the median (MOM) for normal pregnancies of the same gestational age. Twenty-one pregnancies with Down syndrome fetuses and 63 unaffected controls matched for maternal age, gestational age, and duration of storage were studied. The median MOM values of the affected pregnancies were significantly higher than those of the controls (1·41 MOM versus 0·99 MOM). These findings show that there is an increased concentration of CA 125 in second-trimester amniotic fluid from Down syndrome pregnancies. 相似文献
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