胶带输送机运输事故树可靠性的计算机模拟

以胶带输送机运输事故树的计算机模拟过程为例 ,介绍了对事故树可靠性进行计算机模拟的原理、算法以及程序运行步骤 ,编制了模拟程序。用笔者提出的理论、方法及模拟程序 ,对平顶山煤业集团一矿胶带输送机运输事故进行了事故树分析与求解 ,同时将模拟程序运行结果与最小割集法求得的理论值进行了对比 ,计算结果误差小 ,所得结论准确可靠 ,为类似事故的模拟分析提供了一种新的方法和途径     

The history of the second-trimester sonographic markers for detecting fetal Down syndrome,and their current role in obstetric practice

This review summarizes the development, history and use of second-trimester sonographic markers for the detection of fetal Down syndrome over three decades. Starting with the nuchal fold thickening in 1985 and culminating in the genetic sonogram in the 1990s. The combination of second-trimester serum screening with the ultrasound markers improved the detection rate of affected fetuses but also allowed patients to decrease their risk of carrying a fetus with Down syndrome if the genetic sonogram was normal. More recently the role of the genetic sonogram and its markers have changed with the wide spread use of first-trimester screening. This prior screening ultimately decreases the prevalence of fetal Down syndrome in the second trimester to less than 85% of what it was in the first-trimester as most fetuses with Down syndrome are now identified early. Current interpretation of the second-trimester Down syndrome markers must be based on the result of the first trimester and combined screening to achieve the most accurate risk estimate of an affected fetus. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.