陕西2012年极端天气气候事件与气象灾害

利用极端天气气候事件监测系统监测结果,分析了陕西1981-2012年极端天气气候事件出现次数和强度,发现2012年陕西极端天气气候事件次数少于多年平均值,但华阴7月2-4日、佳县7月24-28日极端降水事件强度之大,为历史罕见,佳县27日降水量、26-28日3d降水量均超过百年一遇的水平,造成严重人员伤亡和经济损失.说明即便是在极端天气气候事件出现次数少,气候年景较好的年份,局地也会出现历史罕见的极端事件和灾害.此外,还分析了极端天气气候事件次数与灾情年景评估指数之间的相关性.     

Applying a problem-solving scenario in risk communication of low probability events

ABSTRACT

This study proposes a problem-solving scenario approach to enhance risk communication of low probability events, and aims to understand the effects of such an approach. An experiment was conducted in order to understand the comparative effects of presenting a casualty case with photos and demonstrating a problem scenario via an animation of participants’ anticipated responses to a simulated life-or-death choice. Forty-eight and 55 valid samples were collected respectively for two groups of participants. The results reveal a higher proportion of appropriate responses in the group presented with a problem scenario. Gender difference is found in the group exposed to a problem scenario - a larger percentage of males appear to respond more appropriately when presented with a life-threatening scenario without having being told what has happened. Having the ability to drive an automobile, which is presumably relevant to participants’ responses in a scenario associated with driving, does not, however, appear to differ significantly between the groups. The finding suggests that using a problem-solving scenario approach, compared with merely offering potential consequences of risks is more effective in stimulating appropriate responses to prevent casualty for information users.     

Accident data for the Semantic Web

This paper describes concerns about the documentation, dissemination and use of lessons learned from mishap investigations, impediments posed by current practices, and opportunities for improvement. Lessons are presently developed, documented and stored primarily in narrative form and relational databases, and disseminated in many forms and media, including the Internet. Current practices pose many impediments to maximized development, dissemination and use. Investigation process research and new data concepts behind the Semantic Web, exploited elsewhere, offer potential opportunities to overcome these impediments. To exploit these opportunities, formation of a working group to develop an improved Semantic Web-friendly mishap investigation lessons learning system is proposed. An example illustrating an alternative approach is described to support a reasonable expectation that an alternative lessons learning system could be developed.     

非常规突发事件应急决策方法研究

为深入研究非常规突发事件应急决策方法,提高对非常规突发事件的应对能力,调查研究基于应急预案、范例推理和智能规划等3种非常规突发事件的应急决策方法,对比分析这3种方法的特点。研究发现:这3种方法都可以在一定程度上为非常规突发事件提供辅助决策,但是基于智能规划的应急决策方法更适于非常规突发事件复杂的决策环境,有较大发展潜力。然后针对该方法,提出一些需要深入研究的开放性课题。     

基于DPSIR模型的天津滨海新区环境风险变化趋势分析

考虑区域环境污染事件的形成机制,根据驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应(DPSIR)模型框架,提出系统度量区域环境风险变化趋势的指标体系和评价模型,并对天津滨海新区工业化进程中突发性环境污染事件引发的环境风险变化趋势进行了评估. 结果表明:天津滨海新区2007,2015及2020年环境风险分别为0.487,0.508和0.367,分别处于警戒状态、较差状态和警戒状态,说明滨海新区环境风险形势比较严峻,需要进一步采取更有效的响应对策.      

洪泽湖流域洪涝灾害演变趋势及其与El Nio事件关系

为分析洪泽湖流域洪涝灾害在千年尺度序列上的演变趋势,采用统计历史洪涝记录的方法,分析了气候变化背景下洪涝灾害的响应过程,探讨了洪泽湖流域洪涝灾害同El Nio事件的关系。结果表明：近1 000 a来洪泽湖流域洪涝灾害的频度总体是趋于上升的,这种变化趋势同气候变化的趋势是一致的。研究结果显示：公元1000~1400年洪涝记录偏少,同我国东部地区尤其是中世纪暖期出现的一次200 a以上的干旱化过程有较好的对应性。1400~1800年是洪泽湖流域洪涝的多发期,这一事实同我国东部1550~1850年小冰期期间总体偏湿的环境特征相一致。分析洪涝灾害变化同El Nio事件对应性关系表明：在El Nio事件年及其次年是洪泽湖流域洪涝的多发年份。这可能是由于El Nio事件通过改变西太平洋副高的强度与位置,以及大气环流形势而引起的降水异常所致。了解洪泽湖流域洪涝的演变趋势及其同El Nio的关系对于长期防灾减灾策略具有重要的参考意义。     

上海市城区非渗透性地面径流的污染特性研究

通过2003～2005年连续3 a对上海市城区非渗透性地表径流的采样与检测,获得了19个采样点56组径流水样污染物（COD、BOD₅、SS、NH⁺₄-N、TP、TN）浓度随降雨历时的变化过程线.据此分析了径流污染物浓度的变化规律及其与降雨特性之间的关系,计算了地表径流水质的事件平均浓度,分析了事件平均浓度的分布规律及其与降雨特性参数之间的相关关系.研究表明,上海市区非渗透性地面径流事件平均浓度中值（mg/L）为：COD 205,BOD₅ 68,SS 185,NH⁺₄-N 3.14,TP 0.40,TN 7.23,大大高于法国巴黎同类研究的结果;BOD₅与COD的比值约为0.37,明显高于发达国家相关监测的结果.结果表明,上海市城区地表径流污染严重,即使实现了理想的分流制也难以控制面源污染对城市水环境的危害.     

Nitrogen interception in floodwater of rice field in Taihu region of China

A field experiment located in Taihu Lake Basin of China was conducted,by application of urea or a mixture of urea with manure, to elucidate the interception of nitrogen(N)export in a typical rice field through"zero-drainage water management"combined with sound irrigation,rainfall forecasting and field drying,N concentrations in floodwater rapidly declined before the first event of field drying after three split fertilizations,and subsequently tended to retum to the background level.Before the first field drying,total particulate nitrogen(TPN)was the predominant N form in floodwater of plots with no N input,dissolved inorganic nitrogen(DIN)on plots that received urea only,and dissolved organic nitrogen(DON)on plots treated with the mixture of urea and manure.Thereafter TPN became the major form.No N export was found from the rice field,but total nitrogen(TN)of 15.8 kg/hm~2 was remained,mainly due to soil N sorption.The results recommended the zero-drainage water management for full-scale areas for minimizing N export.     

三江源地区极端气候事件演变事实及其成因探究

利用三江源地区14个气象台站1962-2005年逐日气温、降水资料分析了该地区冷暖干湿极端气候事件的演变规律，探讨了其变化成因。研究表明：近44a来三江源地区气温等级由冷向暖转变，极端高温事件频繁发生，而极端低温事件则逐年减少，致使气温不断向着更高的均值状态持续增暖；尽管降水量干湿变化不甚显著，但降水的极端状况即严重干旱或暴雨事件均呈减少趋势，降水量的变化趋于稳定，降水变率减小；地形对极端气温、降水事件频次变幅的空间分布均有着较为显著的影响，且对后者的影响更为显著；高原季风、厄尔尼诺事件及高原积雪等因子的年际振荡是三江源地区极端气候事件发生频次波动的主要原因。     

1960-2016年中国北方地区极端干湿事件演变特征

基于中国北方地区424个气象站点1960-2016年的日气象数据础,应用FAO Penman-Monteith模型计算潜在蒸散（ET₀）,基于降水量和潜在蒸散计算湿润指数,对湿润指数进行标准化后统计极端干湿事件频率,分析极端干湿事件频率的空间变化趋势、多时间尺度演变特征以及ENSO事件对极端干湿事件变化趋势的影响。结果表明：北方极端干旱和极端湿润事件频率分别呈显著下降和显著上升趋势,年际倾向率分别为-0.10次/10年和0.13次/10年。空间上,极端干旱频率整体呈减少趋势,包括青藏高原、西北和东北地区。西北极端干旱频率减少速率较大,青藏高原中部、新疆北部和东北北部部分站点极端湿润频率增加幅度较大。各年代中,华北极端干旱多发,东北和青藏高原极端湿润多发。季节上,分区极端干旱发生概率均大于极端湿润发生概率,华北极端干旱发生概率最高,青藏高原极端湿润发生概率最高。ENSO与湿润指数存在滞后性的关系。El Niño翌年,气候偏湿润的年份较多;La Nina翌年,气候偏干旱的年份较多。SSTA与翌年湿润指数在年际和夏季两个时间尺度上存在显著的正相关关系。