提高地震台网近震速报精度的一个方法——和达法

本文对和达曲线法鉴别近震直达P波和直达S波的原理进行了详细的讨论,得出确定和达曲线参数的基本公式及用来表示S-P到时差与P到时线性相关程度的相关系数r的计算方法.讨论了利用和达曲线在台网定位中的应用方法.最后研制了利用和达曲线提高震相识别精度的应用程序,并以实例说明该程序的用法.     

跨区域突发事件应急协调机制实现途径探究

突发事件日益呈现出跨区域的特点,研究省内跨区域突发事件应急合作机制已经势在必行。在合作机制中协调性是应对跨区域突发事件的关键因素之一。本文以广东省为例,在分析跨区域突发事件应急机制的基础上,从组织机构、法律规章、跨区域应急文化、资源保障及技术支撑5个方面探讨跨区域应急协调机制的实现途径。     

基于事理图谱的电力安全事故预控方法*

为解释全国电力安全事故的演化规律并为预控事故的发生,提出电力安全事故事理图谱的构建与推演方法。以国家能源局发布的全国电力安全生产情况为数据源,使用规则模板提取事件槽对;利用Word2vec训练词向量,通过事件槽相似度计算泛化事件槽,并以热力图矩阵记录泛化权重;采用Neo4j构建事故事理图谱,以泛化权重和事件链的方向预测事故走向。结果表明:方法能够较好地揭示事故演化的关键节点、预演电力安全事故发展路径,为事故的预控提供1种有效的知识服务方案。     

温州城市不同下垫面径流中无机氮的含量及初期冲刷效应

在温州两个采样区分别监测了4场降雨事件,选取交通干道、停车场、小区屋面、小区路面、城市排水系统汇流口、草地等6种下垫面,测定地表降雨径流中溶解铵态氮（NH＋4-N）、溶解硝态氮（NO-3-N）、溶解亚硝态氮（NO-2-N）的含量及基本理化指标.结果表明,温州城市降雨径流中NH＋4-N、NO-3-N和NO-2-N的降雨事件平均浓度（EMC）值分别介于0.40～5.55、0.01～4.70、0～0.87mg·L-1（以N计）之间,九山外河区域氮污染比山下河区域严重,交通干道、居民生活区是氮污染严重的地方,应加以重视.多数下垫面径流中溶解态无机氮以NH＋4-N为主,比例可达50%以上,九山外河区域各下垫面径流中NH＋4-N普遍超过了地表水环境V类水标准.除小区路面以外,各下垫面径流多次出现NH＋4-N的初期冲刷效应,仅小区屋面和汇流口径流中出现过NO--N初期冲刷效应.     

Influence of different weather events on concentrations of particulate matter with different sizes in Lanzhou, China

The formation and development of weather events has a great impact on the diffusion, accumulation and transport of air pollutants, and causes great changes in the particulate pollution level. It is very important to study their influence on particulate pollution. Lanzhou is one of the most particulate-polluted cities in China and even in the world. Particulate matter (PM) including TSP, PM_>10, PM_2.5-10, PM_2.5 and PM_1.0 concentrations were simultaneously measured during 2005-2007 in Lanzhou to evaluate the influence of three kinds of weather events - dust, precipitation and cold front - on the concentrations of PM with different sizes and detect the temporal evolution. The main results are as follows: (1) the PM pollution in Lanzhou during dust events was very heavy and the rate of increase in the concentration of PM_2.5-10 was the highest of the five kinds of particles. During dust-storm events, the highest peaks of the concentrations of fine particles (PM_2.5 and PM_1.0) occurred 3 hr later than those of coarse particles (PM_>10 and PM_2.5-10). (2) The major effect of precipitation events on PM is wet scavenging. The scavenging rates of particles were closely associated with the kinds of precipitation events. The scavenging rates of TSP, PM_>10 and PM_2.5-10 by convective precipitation were several times as high as those caused by frontal precipitation for the same precipitation amount, the reason being the different formation mechanism and precipitation characteristics of the two kinds of precipitation. Moreover, there exists a limiting value for the scavenging rates of particles by precipitation. (3) The major effect of cold-front events on particles is clearance. However, during cold-front passages, the PM concentrations could sometimes rise first and decrease afterwards, which is the critical difference in the influence of cold fronts on the concentrations of particulate pollutants vs. gaseous pollutants.     

准组织化:“互联网+线上应急救援”的实践路径和现实困境*—以河南郑州“7·20”特大暴雨灾害事件为例

为响应我国应急管理现代化和信息化建设需要,采用参与式观察、网络民族志和深度访谈方法,从准组织化集体行动视角切入,对河南郑州“7·20”特大暴雨灾害事件中救援模式相对成熟的“互联网+线上应急救援”实践路径和现实困境进行探讨。研究结果表明:线上应急救援实践路径涵盖聚合、运转、高效、离散4个阶段,且以持续不断的行动流呈现,具有准组织化集体行动特征;同时,线上救援形式面临“合法性”不确定、救援质量不稳定、风险评估主观性和政府正式沟通渠道有限性等现实困境,研究结果可为我国应急管理信息化建设提供参考。     

陕西2012年极端天气气候事件与气象灾害

利用极端天气气候事件监测系统监测结果,分析了陕西1981-2012年极端天气气候事件出现次数和强度,发现2012年陕西极端天气气候事件次数少于多年平均值,但华阴7月2-4日、佳县7月24-28日极端降水事件强度之大,为历史罕见,佳县27日降水量、26-28日3d降水量均超过百年一遇的水平,造成严重人员伤亡和经济损失.说明即便是在极端天气气候事件出现次数少,气候年景较好的年份,局地也会出现历史罕见的极端事件和灾害.此外,还分析了极端天气气候事件次数与灾情年景评估指数之间的相关性.     

Applying a problem-solving scenario in risk communication of low probability events

ABSTRACT

This study proposes a problem-solving scenario approach to enhance risk communication of low probability events, and aims to understand the effects of such an approach. An experiment was conducted in order to understand the comparative effects of presenting a casualty case with photos and demonstrating a problem scenario via an animation of participants’ anticipated responses to a simulated life-or-death choice. Forty-eight and 55 valid samples were collected respectively for two groups of participants. The results reveal a higher proportion of appropriate responses in the group presented with a problem scenario. Gender difference is found in the group exposed to a problem scenario - a larger percentage of males appear to respond more appropriately when presented with a life-threatening scenario without having being told what has happened. Having the ability to drive an automobile, which is presumably relevant to participants’ responses in a scenario associated with driving, does not, however, appear to differ significantly between the groups. The finding suggests that using a problem-solving scenario approach, compared with merely offering potential consequences of risks is more effective in stimulating appropriate responses to prevent casualty for information users.     

Accident data for the Semantic Web

This paper describes concerns about the documentation, dissemination and use of lessons learned from mishap investigations, impediments posed by current practices, and opportunities for improvement. Lessons are presently developed, documented and stored primarily in narrative form and relational databases, and disseminated in many forms and media, including the Internet. Current practices pose many impediments to maximized development, dissemination and use. Investigation process research and new data concepts behind the Semantic Web, exploited elsewhere, offer potential opportunities to overcome these impediments. To exploit these opportunities, formation of a working group to develop an improved Semantic Web-friendly mishap investigation lessons learning system is proposed. An example illustrating an alternative approach is described to support a reasonable expectation that an alternative lessons learning system could be developed.     

非常规突发事件应急决策方法研究

为深入研究非常规突发事件应急决策方法,提高对非常规突发事件的应对能力,调查研究基于应急预案、范例推理和智能规划等3种非常规突发事件的应急决策方法,对比分析这3种方法的特点。研究发现:这3种方法都可以在一定程度上为非常规突发事件提供辅助决策,但是基于智能规划的应急决策方法更适于非常规突发事件复杂的决策环境,有较大发展潜力。然后针对该方法,提出一些需要深入研究的开放性课题。