关联交叉口交通流模糊变权重组合预测方法

针对单一交通流预测方法存在的局限性和传统交通流组合预测模型中权重不能动态变化的问题,提出一种关联交叉口交通流模糊变权重组合预测方法。先对交叉口交通流的关联性进行分析,并给出关联交叉口的定义;再建立关联交叉口交通流模糊自适应变权重组合预测模型,该模型分别利用Kalman滤波器模型与SVM模型来预测关联交叉口交通流量,然后根据这2个模型预测的误差和交通量的变化趋势,采用模糊逻辑推理方法,对这2个预测模型分别赋予适当的权重。试验结果表明,组合预测模型的最大绝对误差、平均绝对误差和相关系数均明显好于单一的预测方法,分别为9.8%、4.63%和0.99。     

基于熵权物元可拓模型的隧道瓦斯等级评价

为准确预测穿越煤层的隧道瓦斯等级,以有助于降低隧道施工过程中瓦斯事故的风险。通过分析国内外大量瓦斯隧道工程案例,选取地层岩性、地质构造、煤层厚度、隧道埋深、水文地质条件等5个分级指标作为隧道瓦斯等级评价指标,将熵权法引入可拓学理论中,建立熵权物元可拓模型,并应用该模型对10条穿越煤层的隧道进行瓦斯等级评价。结果表明:应用该模型得到的隧道瓦斯等级与其实际等级完全吻合,准确率达到100%。     

航运公司安全管理有效性组合赋权评价模型

为提高航运公司安全营运管理的决策科学性,需要对其安全营运管理的有效性进行过程跟踪评价。基于安全管理的运行过程与安全结果 2种评估指标,提出2种指标相结合的安全管理有效性评价模型。在熵权法(EVM)和层次分析法(AHP)计算的基础上,通过一致性检验确定有效性评价体系指标的权重。提出以组合赋权法确定优化权重数值。经案例应用,得出某航运公司安全管理有效性评价定量化结果。分析结果表明,当前该公司安全管理体系中操作管理是安全管理绩效的关键,而人力资源方面和管理体系方面的改善措施需要与之协调。     

基于变权综合理论的天然气管道动态风险评价

为对天然气管道进行有效的风险评估,提出基于变权综合理论的天然气管道动态风险评价法。利用故障树分析法(FTA)确定天然气管道不同时间空间下的主要风险因素,实时更新风险指标体系;同时引入变权综合原理,建立权重跟随指标值动态变化的变权赋值模型;然后对天然气管道进行综合评定,确定管道当前状态的风险程度。以陕京3线中某管段为例进行分析,得出该管段当前风险等级为中等,在后期运行中应被重点监控。变权赋值与动态指标体系的结合使该方法能实时反映管道风险状况,并适用于天然气管线各段。     

基于熵权模糊综合评价的铁路危险货物运输预警

为保证危险货物铁路运输安全,基于铁路交通灾害预警管理理论,就危险货物铁路运输提出预警管理方法和建议。首先大量参阅危险货物铁路运输事故案例,结合安全系统工程理论,构建危险货物铁路运输预警系统指标体系。然后针对模糊综合评价权重难以确定的问题,为避免权重主观性过强,利用基于熵权模糊综合评价法对危险货物铁路运输安全进行评价。结合实例试算,结果表明:基于熵权模糊综合评价法的结果同原用评价法的结果基本一致。最后探讨铁路危险货物运输的定性预控措施。     

基于组合权物元分析模型的地下水水质评价

针对以往地下水水质评价中多采用单一权重法确定各评价指标权重的不足,提出基于主客观组合权重的权重计算模式,并运用权重风险度计算公式选出相对合适的组合权重,再与物元分析理念相结合,构建用于评价地下水水质的组合权物元分析模型。应用该模型对阜新新邱露天煤矿排土场淋溶水的地下水污染区的12个监测点水质进行综合评价。结果表明:研究区的1#～5#监测点水质均达到Ⅱ级以上,符合国家饮用水标准要求;6#～12#监测点水质均受到不同程度的污染,已不能饮用。评价结论与灰色关联分析法和模糊综合评价法所得结论基本一致。     

不同分子量的腐殖酸存在下2种无机砷的生物毒性效应研究

水环境中天然有机质会与砷形成络合物,进而影响砷的迁移、转化和生物毒性。研究利用超滤方法将腐殖酸(humic acid, HA)分为5个不同分子量的组分,以大型溞为受试生物,探究了不同分子量HA存在下砷对大型溞的毒性效应。结果表明,不同分子量的HA均缓解了As(Ⅲ)和As(Ⅴ)对大型溞的氧化应激损伤和细胞膜损伤,并降低了砷对MT的诱导量。其中1～30 k Da的HA对砷的缓解效果最好,1 k Da的HA毒性缓解效果最差,可能的原因是HA与砷的络合增加溶液中络合态砷的含量,而络合态砷难以进入细胞并被生物利用。不同分子量的HA对砷毒性的缓解差异与其跟砷的络合比例不同有关。     

基于SPA-VFRM的城市要害系统综合应急能力研究

为反映城市要害系统综合应急能力的发展现状及过程,在分析城市要害设施系统构成与面临的主要灾害类型基础上,提出从充分性、精确性、抵御性和及时性4个维度评价应急能力的思路,建立城市要害系统综合应急能力评估指标体系,并应用层次分析法与变异系数法确定指标综合权重,结合集对分析（SPA）与可变模糊识别模型（VFRM）构建城市要害系统综合应急能力的评价模型;运用该模型实证分析某市要害系统综合应急能力发展现状。实证表明:该市要害系统综合应急能力呈现“波浪式升高”的动态发展趋势,灾害抵御能力是构成综合应急能力的主要方面;3种方法的评价结果排序基本一致,表明该模型的评估结果稳健、可靠,能够有效反映城市要害系统综合应急能力发展情况。     

Effect of low-molecular weight organic acids on phosphorus release and phytoavailabilty of phosphorus in phosphate rocks added to soils

Phosphorus (P) is critically needed to improve soil fertility in many parts of the world. The use of water-soluble P fertilizers, e.g., single super-phosphate and triple super-phosphate in developing countries to improve crop production has been limited primarily by their high cost. The presence of indigenous phosphate deposits in some countries provides an incentive for direct application or local chemical treatment at low cost to improve the solubility of low reactive phosphate rocks (PRs). The use of naturally occurring low-molecular weight organic acids (LMWOAs) that are produced in soil as microbial metabolites or plant exudates from dead or living cells represents a new perspective in PR research. The LMWOAs contain various functional groups that may play a significant role in PR dissolution. Little information is available, however, about the potential of LMWOAs in releasing P from PRs. This study reports P release from 12 PRs, four each of low, medium, and high reactivity, obtained from various deposits (Kodjari, Tahoua, North Carolina, Gafsa, Khouribga, Tilemsi Valley, Central Florida, Sechura, Minjingu, North Florida, Hahotoe, and Parc W) using nine LMWOAs containing mono-, di-, and tri-carboxylic groups and a mineral acid (H₂SO₄). Laboratory studies showed that the organic acids are effective in releasing P from low and medium reactive PRs, but very ineffective in releasing P from high reactive PRs. The average amounts of P released by all the organic acids from the three types of PRs were 65.5 mmol kg⁻¹ PR from the low reactive PRs, 55.1 mmol kg⁻¹ from the medium, and 11.1 mmol kg⁻¹ from the high; those released from across all the PRs were 21.9 by the mono-carboxylic acid group, 54.2 by the di-carboxylic acid group, and 57.0 mmol P kg⁻¹ by the tri-carboxylic acid group. The P released was negatively correlated with the equilibrium pH, but positively correlated with Ca released from the PRs. Laboratory incubation studies on the release of P from PRs added to soils with or without organic acids and incubated at 25 °C for 15, 30, and 45 days showed that the percentage of plant-available P released varied considerably from 0.95 in the Kodjari PR to 40.1% in the North Carolina PR and was related to PR reactivity. A greenhouse study with corn (Zea mays L.) grown for 60 days on soils treated with PRs or with PRs mixed with organic acids showed that corn response to addition of oxalic or citric acid varied with P rates and PR sources, suggesting that organic acids have potential as amendments for increasing plant-available P in PR-treated soils.     

Purification and molecular weight distribution of a key exopolysaccharide component of Bacillus megaterium TF10

Extracellular polymeric substances (EPS) are organic metabolic compounds excreted by microorganisms. They largely impact microbial aggregate structures and functions. Extracellular polysaccharides (EP) in EPS are responsible for the formation of microbial aggregates. In this work, we successfully separated and characterized EP from EPS of the bacterium Bacillus megaterium TF10. Extraction of EP from EPS was optimized using Sevag''s reagent. Chemical characteristics, functional groups, and molecular weight (MW) distribu-tion of EP were compared with the harvested EPS and soluble microbial products (SMP). We found that the polymers of lower MW and free proteins were successfully removed by Sevag''s reagent. The higher MW components of EPS were predominantly polysaccharides, while the polymers of lower MW tended to secrete to the supernatant and were described as SMP. A part of the proteins in the EP was polysaccharide-bonded. Our results can be further used in elucidating the complex flocculation mechanisms in which EP play a major role.