基于DEMATEL的铁路行车人因事故关键因素实证分析

针对铁路行车人因事故受多因素交互影响的问题,提出了一种基于信息熵和DEMATEL法耦合的铁路行车人因事故关键因素实证分析方法。首先依据铁路行车人因事故认知行为模型,从感知、决策、计划和执行4个过程分析铁路行车人因事故的影响因素;然后综合运用信息熵和DEMATEL法构建关键因素量化识别模型,利用中心度和原因度两个参数分析铁路行车人因事故的关键影响因素;最后,结合2008—2013年铁路行车人因事故数据进行实证分析。结果表明,机车操作人员相关情形记忆失误、情景诊断失误、未严格执行操作规则和采取错误行动是铁路行车人因事故的关键影响因素。     

Improved recovery of repeat intoxicated drivers using fingernails and blood spots to monitor alcohol and other substance abuse

Objectives: This study reports the results of a pilot program in Kenosha County that used a combination of direct biomarkers extracted from blood spots and nails to monitor repeat intoxicated drivers for their use of alcohol and drugs with a detection window spanning from 3 weeks to several months. The objectives were to test whether the direct biomarkers phosphatidylethanol (PEth), ethylglucuronide (EtG), and 5 drug metabolites would (1) help assessors obtain a more objective evaluation of repeat offenders during the assessment interview, (2) allow for timely identification of relapses and improve classification of drivers into risk categories, and (3) predict recidivism by identifying offenders most likely to obtain a subsequent operating while intoxicated (OWI) offense within 4 years of enrollment in the program.

Methods: All (N = 261) repeat offenders were tested using PEth obtained from blood spots and EtG obtained from fingernails; 159 participants were also tested for a 5 drugs of abuse nail panel. Drivers were tested immediately after the assessment interview (baseline) and at 3, 6, 9, and 12 months after baseline. Based on biomarker results and self-reports of abstinence, offenders were classified into different risk categories and required to follow specific testing timelines based on the program's decision tree.

Results: The baseline analysis shows that 60% of drivers tested positive for alcohol biomarkers (EtG, PEth, or both) at the assessment interview, with lower detection rates (0–11%) for the 5 drug metabolites. The comparison of biomarkers results to self-reports of abstinence identified 28% of all offenders as high risk and assigned them to more frequent testing and more intense monitoring. The longitudinal analysis shows that 56% (completers) of participants completed the program successfully and the remaining 44% (noncompliant) terminated prematurely. Two thirds (68%) of the completers were able to reduce or control their drinking and one third relapsed at least one time during their mandated monitoring periods. After a brief intervention by the assessors, 79% of relapsers tested negative for biomarkers in their repeat tests. The rearrest analysis showed that offenders classified in the noncompliant and relapsers groups were 7 times more likely to receive a new OWI 4 years after enrollment compared to drivers classified as abstainers or controllers. Refractory drivers were monitored the longest and reported no subsequent rearrests.

Conclusion: These findings demonstrate the benefits of more individualized interventions with repeat OWI offenders and calls for further development of multimodal approaches in traffic medicine including those that use direct alcohol biomarkers as evidence-based practices to reduce recidivism.     

黏胶纤维厂特征污染因子的筛选及其对河流水质的影响

以丹东化学纤维公司为例,对黏胶纤维厂生产工艺进行了分析,并对其污染源进行了调查、监测,物料衡算及污染因子的评价,筛选出了主要污染物、特征污染物与评价因子,并运用水质预测模型对其纳污河流的水质影响进行了研究。     

磁化-厌氧生物降解有机物的影响机理分析

磁化对好氧生物降解有机物的研究较多,文章在厌氧条件下,采用不同磁场强度,对不同种类的有机污水进行实验分析;结果表明,在厌氧条件下,磁处理对提高水中有机物分解更为显著;在实验的基础上,分析了磁处理对厌氧生物降解有机物的影响因素,并探讨了磁化-厌氧生物降解有机物的机理。     

居民生活垃圾及生活污水产生量的影响因素通径分析

通过构建多元通径分析模型,定量分析中国各地区人口总数、生产总值、居民消费水平和生活供水用水量对生活垃圾清运量和生活污水排放量的直接影响和间接影响。结果表明各地区的生产总值对生活垃圾清运量的直接影响最大。生活用水供水量也对生活垃圾的清运量有一定的直接影响,居民消费水平和人口总数几乎没有直接影响。人口总数对垃圾清运量的间接影响最大,居民生活用水供水量、居民消费水平、地区生产总值对于垃圾清运量都具有不同程度的间接影响。生活用水供水量对生活污水排放量影响最大,地区生产总值和居民消费水平对生活污水排放量也有一定的直接影响,而人口总数几乎没有直接影响。人口总数对生活污水排放量的间接影响最大,其次是地区生产总值、居民消费水平和生活用水供水量对污水排放量也有间接影响。     

自然环境对贮运发射箱的影响

贮运发射箱对自然环境条件适应性能的优劣直接影响到待发射导弹的贮存可靠性和任务完成能力,分析了6种主要自然环境条件对贮运发射箱的影响,并针对这些影响提出了贮运发射箱在设计和贮存上应采取的措施,以减少自然环境对贮运发射箱的影响。     

Fenton法氧化甲基橙溶液的脱色动力学实验研究

实验对甲基橙的Fenton氧化脱色降解反应过程进行了研究,结果表明在pH值为3、反应温度为30℃的反应条件下,Fenton试剂氧化甲基橙溶液脱色反应可以用一级动力学过程来描述,而且其反应速率常数受到亚铁离子初始浓度和过氧化氢初始浓度的影响很大,经过数据拟合分别得到了反应速率常数与亚铁离子初始浓度和过氧化氢初始浓度之间的数学关系。实验还对30℃～60℃不同温度下的Fenton反应过程进行了考察,结果表明不同温度下Fenton氧化甲基橙的脱色反应仍可以用一级动力学过程来描述,而且其反应速率常数受温度变化的影响不大,基本保持恒定。     

爆破振动对地质遗迹影响的PLAXIS模拟分析

杭瑞国家公路凤凰至大兴(湘黔界)K0+500~K5+000段穿越凤凰国家地质公园奇梁洞景区。为分析公路施工期和运营期对奇梁洞地质遗迹影响程度,预测施工过程中爆破震动和项目建成后在车辆荷载作用下对地质遗迹造成的危害,利用有限元软件Plaxis模拟分析公路工程建设对地质遗迹的影响。为工程建设提供奇梁洞地质遗迹保护审批依据,防止建设工程引发地质灾害。     

风浪作用下太湖改性沉积物对藻体絮凝去除效果研究

以壳聚糖改性的太湖原位沉积物为分散介质,应用Y-型再悬浮发生装置,通过定量模拟太湖常见的中等级别风情,研究再悬浮作用下,改性沉积物对蓝藻水华的絮凝去除作用.结果表明,在黏土加入量为0.2　g·L^-1,壳聚糖分别为0.100和0.150　g·L^-1,其蓝藻的去除率分别为93.55%和99.19%;在静止30 min后,壳聚糖加入量为0.15 　g·L^-1时,水体的浊度去除率达到78.60%;静止8 h后,水体的浊度去除率达到93.88%.同时,短期内壳聚糖的加入对水体中PO^3-₄-P有一定的去除作用.初步结果表明,在中风风情下,壳聚糖的加入量为0.15　g·L^-1时,能更有效地去除蓝藻.表明利用壳聚糖改性沉积物来絮凝沉降太湖水华藻体,具有较好的应用前景.对比研究表明,引入水动力强度和水柱高度定量模拟方法,在确定壳聚糖投加量絮凝除藻中,具有明显的方法优势.     

茶饮料类项目水环境影响评价

以武汉加多宝饮料公司王老吉茶饮料的环境影响评价为例,介绍了茶饮料类项目水环境影响评价的内容和要点,提出了改进措施和建议,为其他茶饮料类项目的环境影响评价提供参考和借鉴.