粉末金属压制过程建模方法(2)--广义塑性力学方法和内蕴时间方法

介绍了建立描述粉末金属压制过程数学模型的难点，详细论述了目前4种主要的建模方法，分析、比较了各种方法的优劣，并对建模工作提出了展望和指导性意见。     

作物产量决定因子分析

应用主成分分析,将影响水稻产量的一系列因子概括为四个主要因子:(1)土壤肥力因子,(2)栽插措施因子,(3)田间管理因子;(4)产量性状因子。将上述因子作为自变量,水稻产量作为因变量,进行逐步回归分析,得到一个产量预测模型(R=0.962)。根据各变量的回归系数大小,可以得到产量决定因子对产量影响的大小顺序为,田间管理因子>土壤肥力因子。栽插措施因子和产量性状因子对水稻产量的影响未达显著水平。 文中所述的分析方法适用于在不同的土壤条件下预测作物产量的潜在变化。     

The importance of agricultural yield elasticity for indirect land use change: a Bayesian network analysis for robust uncertainty quantification

ABSTRACT

A major barrier to realising biofuels’ climate change mitigation potential is uncertainty concerning carbon emissions from indirect land use change (ILUC). Central to this uncertainty is the extent to which yields can respond dynamically to increased demand for agricultural commodities. This study examines the elasticity of soybean and corn yields in the USA for 1990–2017 using Bayesian network models to robustly quantify uncertainty. The central finding is that a single parameter value for yield elasticity does not adequately represent the effects of technology, policy and price pressures through time. The models demonstrate the limiting role of technological progress as well as farmers’ capital investment in response to system shocks. Results suggest evaluation of parameter uncertainty alone is unlikely to capture a full range of future ILUC scenarios and reiterate the need for ILUC studies to use probabilistic approaches as standard to robustly inform climate change mitigation policies.     

Plant phenology, growth and nutritive quality of Briza maxima: responses induced by enhanced ozone atmospheric levels and nitrogen enrichment

An assessment of the effects of tropospheric ozone (O₃) levels and substrate nitrogen (N) supplementation, singly and in combination, on phenology, growth and nutritive quality of Briza maxima was carried out. Two serial experiments were developed in Open-Top Chambers (OTC) using three O₃ and three N levels. Increased O₃ exposure did not affect the biomass-related parameters, but enhanced senescence, increased fiber foliar content (especially lignin concentration) and reduced plant life span; these effects were related to senescence acceleration induced by the pollutant. Added N increased plant biomass production and improved nutritive quality by decreasing foliar fiber concentration. Interestingly, the effects of N supplementation depended on meteorological conditions and plant physiological activity. N supplementation counteracted the O₃-induced senescence but did not modifiy the effects on nutritive quality. Nutritive quality and phenology should be considered in new definitions of the O₃ limits for the protection of herbaceous vegetation.     

Nitrate leaching under vegetable field above a shallow aquifer in Slovenia

In the search for new technologies that would ensure optimum yield and environmental sustainability, various irrigation, nitrogen and cropping system management strategies for the production of vegetables with a shorter growing period were assessed at a benchmark site in Slovenia for the years 2006 and 2007. In the studied years four irrigation and fertilization treatments were applied: (1) 50% drip irrigation of plants water requirements ET_crop and the farmer's practice of fertilisation (broadcasting), (2) fertilisation and 100% drip irrigation (fertigation), (3) the farmer's practice of irrigation (sprinkler irrigation using water stored in plastic tanks) and fertilisation, and (4) control (the farmer's practice of irrigation but no fertilisation). An equivalent of 80, 80 and 200 kg ha⁻¹ of nitrogen (N), 50, 50 and 80 kg ha⁻¹ of phosphorous (P) and 120, 120 and 300 kg ha⁻¹ of potassium (K) was added for iceberg lettuce, endive and cabbage, respectively. Nitrogen (N) labelled fertilizer (¹⁵N) was applied to trace the movement of the applied N fertiliser. The tested irrigation and fertilisation techniques for the production of vegetables with a shorter growing period in the Slovenian climate showed that environmentally sustainable practices (split application of nutrients compared to broadcast incorporating fertilisation) should be a practice of choice in water protection zones. The results confirm that fertigation and improved irrigation scheduling can be an effective way of minimizing nitrate leaching, and should be considered for vegetable production in or close to groundwater protection zones.     

粉末金属压制过程建模方法(3)--微观力学方法

介绍了建立描述粉末金属压制过程数学模型的难点，详细论述了目前4种主要的建模方法，分析、比较了各种方法的优劣，并对建模工作提出了展望和指导性意见。     

Socioeconomic benefits of conserving Iran’s water resources through modifying agricultural practices and water management strategies

Sustainable development requires modifying the current consumption pattern of natural resources. This study investigates efficient tactics for reducing the unsustainability and inefficiency of human’s food-related blue water consumption alongside improving national environmental and socioeconomic status. As a case study for Iran, 15 alternative management scenarios (AMS) were defined compared to the current on-farm management, and their effects were assessed on a monthly scale. Based on the results, 45.5 billion m³ y⁻¹ (BCM) blue water is consumed within the croplands, 78% and 34% of which are unsustainable and inefficient, respectively. AMCs reduces the unsustainable and inefficient blue water consumption by 2–17 BCM and 2–13 BCM, respectively. The combination of yield gap closure, drip irrigation, soil mulching, and deficit irrigation has the largest effect on blue water saving; it releases or changes the status of monthly blue water scarcity in 11 provinces; increases field-employees by 132%, food security by 9%, international food-export by 87%, and gross domestic production by 54%. However, it doesn’t fully address blue water overconsumption in the summer period; hence, further measures are needed to reduce blue water scarcity to the sustainable level in these environmental hotspots.     

The MONICA model: Testing predictability for crop growth, soil moisture and nitrogen dynamics

A fundamentally revised version of the HERMES agro-ecosystem model, released under the name of MONICA, was calibrated and tested to predict crop growth, soil moisture and nitrogen dynamics for various experimental crop rotations across Germany, including major cereals, sugar beet and maize. The calibration procedure also included crops grown experimentally under elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentration. The calibrated MONICA simulations yielded a median normalised mean absolute error (nMAE) of 0.20 across all observed target variables (n = 42) and a median Willmott's Index of Agreement (d) of 0.91 (median modelling efficiency (ME): 0.75). Although the crop biomass, habitus and soil moisture variables were all within an acceptable range, the model often underperformed for variables related to nitrogen. Uncalibrated MONICA simulations yielded a median nMAE of 0.27 across all observed target variables (n = 85) and a median d of 0.76 (median ME: 0.30), also showing predominantly acceptable results for the crop biomass, habitus and soil moisture variables. Based on the convincing performance of the model under uncalibrated conditions, MONICA can be regarded as a suitable simulation model for use in regional applications. Furthermore, its ability to reproduce the observed crop growth results in free-air carbon enrichment experiments makes it suited to predict agro-ecosystem behaviour under expected future climate conditions.