大型排架施工安全监控机制研究

以大型排架为研究对象,研究排架从设计开始、搭设过程、排架使用过程、排架拆除等环节,从安全组织、技术措施、监督检查、安全许可等方面严格把关,对工程建设参建各方应该履行的安全生产管理职责、权限、工作内容及工作流程进行梳理和细化,设置控制节点,强化中间环节的安全检查,实现排架全生命过程的安全控制,研究成果以程序文件表现。大型排架施工过程监控程序文件中有工作流程8个,对应安全检查表10个,工作流程环环相扣,安全检查表间相互关联。通过实施大型排架施工过程监控程序文件,严格过程监督管理,保证高排架在搭设与使用中不发生安全生产事故,有效杜绝了类似于高排架垮塌伤人等群体性伤害安全事故。     

西安地铁车站深基坑变形规律FLAC模拟研究

开展西安地铁深基坑变形规律理论与监测的研究对指导西北地区深基坑信息化施工具有重要价值。本文以西安地铁2号线某车站深基坑工程为背景,完成了车站深基坑施工监测方案设计,对深基坑施工过程进行了FLAC计算模拟,重点研究了桩体变形、钢支撑轴力、基坑周边地表变形规律。结果表明,复杂环境下城市地铁车站站深基坑明挖施工时,现场监测是信息化安全施工的保证,采用钻孔灌注桩和钢支撑的复合围护方案作为车站深基坑的围护结构是合理的,土方分层开挖方式和钢支撑预应力施加是减少空间效应保证安全施工的重要措施。桩身水平位移特别是桩顶水平位移是围护结构变形特性的直接反映,围护桩变形最大的地方为基坑中部到三分之二基坑深度处。基坑围护结构附近的地面隆起量明显小于基坑中部的隆起量,随着开挖深度增大,隆起量逐渐由基坑中部最大转变为两边大中间小的型式。     

某市区重点行业职业病危害因素现状调查研究

对某市区重点行业15家企业职业病危害因素进行检测与评价,对普查结果进行综合分析。结果表明:15家企业工作场所化学有害因素职业卫生现状情况良好,但噪声危害程度较大;在6个重点行业中,电子制造行业有害因素合格率最低,为84%,其次是纺织行业,有害因素合格率为85%,其他化学原料及化学制品、化工、木制家具、石材加工四个行业合格率均较高;市直以上企业职业卫生现状情况优于区属企业,300-2000人之间较大规模的企业职业卫生现状情况优于300人以下的企业。同时,对企业提出了职业危害现状的改进措施与建议。     

北京市控制大气污染四期紧急措施环境有效性分析

对北京市控制大气污染的四期紧急措施进行量化,分别计算出各项控制措施实施后的排放削减量,建立排放清单.采用空气质量模型,模拟了紧急措施实施的各阶段市区内一次大气污染物SO₂、NO_x和PM10浓度的时空分布情况,分析和评价了四期紧急措施的环境有效性.结果表明,四期紧急措施对SO₂和NO_x的控制效果较好,PM10的环境浓度下降不明显.     

冷空气在北上台风“利奇马”致灾暴雨中的作用分析

利用NCEP逐6 h再分析资料、地面加密观测、探空、雷达资料,分析得出“利奇马”致灾暴雨是在长时间稳定维持的天气尺度环流背景下形成的。冷空气在降水所起的作用表现在:(1)长时间维持的弱冷空气与偏南暖湿气流交汇形成了边界层辐合线,辐射升温和暖湿气流的输送加大了辐合线两侧的温度和露点梯度,在高温高湿的有利环境下,对流在辐合线附近强烈发展。(2)高空槽后冷空气由“利奇马”环流西北侧渗入,先后形成3个冷平流中心,分别对应3个阶段的降水。(3)冷暖空气在降水区的持续辐合抬升作用增强了降水,最强降水时段发生在锋区垂直方向坡度最大的时段。(4)水平锋生有利于水汽输送和辐合抬升,垂直锋生有利于对流不稳定能量的累积和触发。冷空气形成的水平辐合和抬升造成大范围上升运动,使得锋生和垂直锋消同时存在,最强降水时段发生在水平锋生最强的时段。     

Dynamic pressure induced by a methane–air explosion in a coal mine

The hazardous effect of dynamic pressure and strong gas flows induced by a methane–air mixture explosion in underground coal mines is studied. The dynamic pressure effect of a methane–air explosion was analyzed by numerical simulation, in a duct and tunnel. Compared to the overpressure generated by an explosion that can act on a body, the dynamic pressure caused by the high-speed flow of the gaseous combustion products can cause serious damage as well. At the structural opening of a coal mine, the destruction caused by the dynamic pressure induced by a methane–air explosion is more serious than the overpressure. For a tube or tunnel partially filled by a methane–air mixture, the dynamic pressure is lower than the overpressure in the region occupied by the flammable mixture. Beyond the premixed region, the dynamic pressure is of the same order of magnitude as the overpressure.     

间接蒸发冷却新风机组净化室内PM2.5特性

为有效降低室内PM2.5,指导间接蒸发冷却新风机组的设计选型,推导了新风机组净化效力和净化能效评价指标的数学表达式,并利用自行研制的间接蒸发冷却新风机组,分析了2种过滤器在不同运行工况下净化PM2.5的特性。结果表明,MERV 7+16和MERV 7+13的计数效率均随颗粒物粒径增加而提高,且前者的计数效率高于后者;由于滤材的不同,MERV 7+16的初阻力更小。MERV 7+16的渗透系数更小,其净化效力也要大于MERV 7+13;由于PM10在室内的自然沉降作用更显著,过滤器对PM10的净化效力明显大于PM2.5和PM1。将室内新风负荷作为新风机组能耗的一部分,在对比天津和南宁地区新风机组的净化能效时发现,由于两地区冬季室外温度存在明显差异,导致处于天津地区的新风机组若要在冬季获得同等的洁净空气量,需付出更多的能耗代价。     

无上部抽吸装置储罐区人工龙卷风风场模拟

为了减少因储罐泄漏位置不确定造成的人员伤亡,指导应急疏散,提出利用人工龙卷风定向控制气体流动方向的模型。首先基于Fluent软件建立了储罐区域人工龙卷风数值模型,分析切向速度和压强沿径向变化规律,发现与经典Rankine涡模型切向速度沿径向分布规律一致,证实可在储罐区以射流相切的方式形成人工龙卷风风场。其次研究了涡流比和进风量对风场控制气流特性的影响,即分析形成的龙卷风风场最大切向速度、压强差变化规律,结果表明,涡流比越大,形成的龙卷风风场中切向速度和压强差越小,即气流向中心汇聚能力越弱;进风量越大,形成的龙卷风风场中切向速度和压强差越大,即气流向中心汇聚能力越强。研究表明,用人工龙卷风控制储罐泄漏气流方向是可行的。     

A Bayesian hierarchical approach to quantifying stakeholder attitudes toward conservation in the presence of reporting error

Stakeholder support is vital for achieving conservation success, yet there are few reliable mechanisms to monitor stakeholder attitudes toward conservation. Approaches used to assess attitudes rarely account for bias arising from reporting error, which can lead to falsely reporting a positive attitude toward conservation (false-positive error) or not reporting a positive attitude when the respondent has a positive attitude toward conservation (false-negative error). Borrowing from developments in applied conservation science, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model to quantify stakeholder attitudes as the probability of having a positive attitude toward wildlife notionally (or in abstract terms) and at localized scales while accounting for reporting error. We compared estimates from our model, Likert scores, and naïve estimates (i.e., proportion of respondents reporting a positive attitude in at least 1 question that was only susceptible to false-negative error) with true stakeholder attitudes through simulations. We then applied the model in a survey of tea estate staff on their attitudes toward Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) in the Kaziranga–Karbi Anglong landscape of northeast India. In simulations, Bayesian model estimates of stakeholder attitudes toward wildlife were less biased than naïve estimates or Likert scores. After accounting for reporting errors, we estimated the probability of having a positive attitude toward elephants notionally as 0.85 in the Kaziranga landscape, whereas the proportion of respondents who had positive attitudes toward elephants at a localized scale was 0.50. In comparison, without accounting for reporting errors, naïve estimates of proportions of respondents with positive attitudes toward elephants were 0.69 and 0.23 notionally and at local scales, respectively. False (positive and negative) reporting probabilities were consistently not 0 (0.22–0.68). Regular and reliable assessment of stakeholder attitudes–combined with inference on drivers of positive attitudes–can help assess the success of initiatives aimed at facilitating human behavioral change and inform conservation decision making.     

Monitoring,imperfect detection,and risk optimization of a Tasmanian devil insurance population

Most species are imperfectly detected during biological surveys, which creates uncertainty around their abundance or presence at a given location. Decision makers managing threatened or pest species are regularly faced with this uncertainty. Wildlife diseases can drive species to extinction; thus, managing species with disease is an important part of conservation. Devil facial tumor disease (DFTD) is one such disease that led to the listing of the Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) as endangered. Managers aim to maintain devils in the wild by establishing disease‐free insurance populations at isolated sites. Often a resident DFTD‐affected population must first be removed. In a successful collaboration between decision scientists and wildlife managers, we used an accessible population model to inform monitoring decisions and facilitate the establishment of an insurance population of devils on Forestier Peninsula. We used a Bayesian catch‐effort model to estimate population size of a diseased population from removal and camera trap data. We also analyzed the costs and benefits of declaring the area disease‐free prior to reintroduction and establishment of a healthy insurance population. After the monitoring session in May–June 2015, the probability that all devils had been successfully removed was close to 1, even when we accounted for a possible introduction of a devil to the site. Given this high probability and the baseline cost of declaring population absence prematurely, we found it was not cost‐effective to carry out any additional monitoring before introducing the insurance population. Considering these results within the broader context of Tasmanian devil management, managers ultimately decided to implement an additional monitoring session before the introduction. This was a conservative decision that accounted for uncertainty in model estimates and for the broader nonmonetary costs of mistakenly declaring the area disease‐free.