强化环境监测管理提高环境监测地位

总结和回顾了我国环境监测工作开展近三十年来所取得的非凡成绩,阐述了目前环境监测工作同整个环境保护事业相比较,同国外环境监测相比较存在的不足,并进一步提出了以"强化环境监测管理,提高环境监测地位"为核心的几点建议,旨在使我国的环境监测工作能更好地为环境保护和经济建设服务.     

改进BP算法在煤与瓦斯突出预测中的应用

为了正确预测煤与瓦斯突出的趋势与危险性 ,基于反向BP神经网络 ,笔者提出了一种改进的BP网络模型 :为了加快BP网络的收敛速度 ,增强其跳出局部极小点的能力 ,采用了自适应变步长法和改进模拟退火法 (SA法 )相结合的方法。实际应用表明 ,该模型收敛速度快 ,准确性高 ,具有较高的可靠性和实用性 ,是一种十分有效的煤与瓦斯突出危险性预测方法。     

Chemistry of Selected High-Elevation Lakes in Seven National Parks in the Western United States

A chemical survey of 69 high-altitude lakes in seven national parks in the western United States was conducted during the fallof 1999; the lakes were previously sampled during the fall of 1985, as part of the Western Lake Survey. Lakes in parks in the Sierra/southern Cascades (Lassen Volcanic, Yosemite, Sequoia/Kings Canyon National Parks) and in the southern RockyMountains (Rocky Mountain National Park) were very dilute; medianspecific conductance ranged from 4.4 to 12.2 S cm^-1 andmedian alkalinity concentrations ranged from 32.2 to 72.9 eqL^-1. Specific conductances and alkalinity concentrations were substantially higher in lakes in the central and northernRocky Mountains parks (Grand Teton, Yellowstone, and GlacierNational Parks), probably due to the prevalence of more reactivebedrock types. Regional patterns in lake concentrations of NO₃ and SO₄ were similar to regional patterns in NO₃ and SO₄ concentrations in precipitation, suggestingthat the lakes are showing a response to atmospheric deposition.Concentrations of NO₃ were particularly high in Rocky Mountain National Park, where some ecosystems appear to be undergoing nitrogen saturation.     

Atmospheric Levels of Nitrogen Oxides at a Greek Oil Refinery Compared with the Urban Measurements in Athens

Oil refining is among the industrial activities that emit considerable amounts of air pollutants into the atmosphere. Nitrogen oxides are important air pollutants that are emitted by oil refineries as products of combustion processes. The ambient air concentrations of nitrogen oxide (NO) and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) were monitored continuously at a site close to an oil refinery, near the city of Corinth in Greece, during autumn 1997 together with the main meteorological parameters. The contribution of the oil refinery to the measured atmospheric levels of nitrogen oxides was estimated. The ambient air concentration of nitrogen oxides in the area surrounding the oil refinery were generally lower than the ambient air concentrations in the urban area of Athens in Greece, and the NO₂ levels were always below the existing air quality standards. The influence of the refinery emitted NO_x in the photochemical production of ozone seems to be more important in terms of human and vegetation exposure given the high ozone backgrounds measured in the area.     

组合优化的能源消费量预测模型

针对非等间距灰色系统预测中存在误差较大的问题，结合序列本身的特点，利用世界能源消费的历史数据，采用3种灰色预测模型与神经网络进行组合优化，建立了灰色神经网络的能源消费量组合预测模型。实证分析结果表明，提高了模型的拟合和预测精度，拓宽了应用范围。该模型可对能源的消费趋势进行预测，为科学分析能源结构提供依据。     

网络安全中的蜜罐技术和蜜网技术

当前，网络安全正在受到严重的威胁，传统的防御技术存在其固有的被动防御的缺陷，而蜜罐技术正以其主动防御的特性受到越来越多的关注。本文说明了其在网络安全中所起到的防御作用和通过收集信息而起到的研究作用，讨论了涉及到的诱骗机制、数据控制、数据捕获和数据分析等关键技术以及实际应用中的部署方案。     

深水平台施工过程自然风险定量评估

在分析现有风险理论的基础上,结合海洋施工实际,提出了一种对海洋施工自然风险进行定量评估的模型。根据目标系统各风险事件与影响因素之间存在高度非线性复杂映射的特点,提出了利用BP神经网络拟合方法,对主要风险事件发生概率进行量化的模型。针对传统的梯度下降优化算法收敛速度慢的特点,采用可避免计算Hesse矩阵的Levenberg-Marquardt算法来训练神经网络。这一模型可以模拟专家评价,并准确地按照专家的评定法则进行估算,具有一定的通用性。     

低周荷载下型钢混凝土柱抗剪性能智能分析

为了研究型钢混凝土短柱的抗震性能，通过21根SRC柱在低周反复荷载作用下的剪切黏结破坏试验结果，在利用灰色关联理论进行模型输入变量选择的基础上，建立了其基于改进神经网络模型的受剪承载力分析模型，进而研究了混凝土抗压强度、腹板宽度、轴压比及箍筋间距等因素对SRC柱抗剪能力的影响规律，并对SRC柱的受剪承载力进行了预测。结果表明，所提方法能够反映受剪承载力与影响因素间的非线性变化规律，可供SRC柱在低周往复荷载作用下的受剪承载力分析参考。     

我国民航灾害应急联动机制优化研究

针对我国现行的民航灾害应急联动救援体系所存在着多头指挥、组织形式不明确、责任关系不协调、信息沟通不顺畅、资源调度不合理等问题,运用文献检索、理论分析与实地调研相结合的方法,笔者提出优化思路:民航灾害应急联动机制应以各级民航管理当局的飞行事故应急指挥部为主要指挥决策者,采用虚拟的网络式组织形式,理顺联动单位的责任与关系,将应急联动的信息网络与各地突发公共危机事件的信息平台接轨,成立全国统一的、具有双重功能的民航灾害应急资源调度中心。其中,对民航灾害应急联动虚拟网络组织形式的设计,较好地改进了现行组织的效率,体现了快速反应和协调行动的要求。     

三峡茅坪溪沥青混凝土心墙堆石坝位移反演分析与安全预测

本文研究了基于综合应用人工神经网络和演化算法的位移反演分析方法,并将此方法应用于三峡茅坪溪沥青混凝土心墙堆石坝的变形反演分析中。以茅坪溪一期工程原型观测成果为依据,反演出能够正确反映坝体变形特性的邓肯-张EB模型参数,从而预测了施工期末和蓄水期末该坝的变形特性,并基于总应力法研究了心墙水力劈裂破坏发生的可能性,为茅坪溪堆石坝运行期的安全生产提供依据。研究结果表明,茅坪溪心墙堆石坝不会发生水力劈裂破坏,该坝蓄水后虽然水压上升,但心墙仍是安全的。