我国大气背景点挥发性有机污染物的浓度水平与组成特征

2010—2011年间,在全国范围内选择具有代表性的10个大气背景点开展相关研究,对大气背景点中VOCs的浓度水平与组成特征进行了系统的分析.研究结果表明,我国大气背景点挥发性有机物浓度范围为(3.82±2.96)μg.m-3—(22.74±3.60)μg.m-3,与其它国家和地区背景点空气中VOCs浓度相比,我国背景点空气中VOCs浓度处于较低水平.在空间分布上,大气背景点空气中VOCs浓度呈现东部较高,西部较低的态势,在季节变化上,除河北承德外,山东长岛、重庆武隆、西藏曲水和青海湖4个背景点均呈现出夏季空气中VOCs浓度高于冬季的趋势,这主要是由于夏季气温高,有利于VOCs挥发的原因.初步来源分析结果表明,我国背景点大气中挥发性有机物可能主要来源于自然燃烧、大气传输和局地的污染影响.     

香格里拉本底站大气CO2浓度及变化特征初步研究

利用基于光腔衰荡光谱(Cavity Ring Down Spectroscopy,CRDS)技术自组装的大气CO2在线观测系统,于2010年9月—2011年8月在云南香格里拉大气本底站对大气CO2进行了初步观测.该站春、夏、秋、冬季CO2平均本底浓度分别为394.78×10-6(物质的量之比,下同)、386.82×10-6、386.46×10-6和390.74×10-6.全年浓度在4—5月最高,7月份最低,全年月均值振幅约12.22×10-6.四季浓度日平均高值出现在上午7∶00左右,最低值出现在14∶00—17∶00.日变化振幅在冬季最小,夏季最大,分别为1.51×10-6和21.82×10-6.四季西南来向的地面风对CO2浓度均有明显的降低作用.通过四季每日整点后向轨迹聚类计算,结合浓度资料分析发现,该站春、夏、秋季来自于西南方向的气团降低了观测的CO2浓度,而在冬季未起到明显的降低作用,主要因该站局地植被生态系统排放减少所致.     

改进GM(1,1)模型在我国危险化学品事故预测中的应用

针对传统GM(1,1)模型建模方法存在偏差,当发展系数的绝对值较大时,模型偏差较大,无法用于中长期预测,甚至不能做短期预测等问题.从优化GM(1,1)背景值出发,通过提高背景值的构造精度,实现对传统GM(1,1)模型的改进,利用MATLAB软件编制高效的计算机程序,实现模型的模拟和预测,并将其应用于我国危险化学品事故起数及死亡人数预测.实例结果表明,改进GM(1,1)模型无论对变化平缓的低增长序列,还是变化急剧的高增长序列,都有较好的适应性,及更好的拟合和预测效果,为提高建模精度提供了新的途径.     

基于保护地下水的北京市土壤通用筛选值推导

分别采用三相平衡耦合地下水稀释模型(以下称方法1)和SESOIL耦合地下水稀释模型(以下称方法2)对北京市不同水文地质条件(永定河山前冲洪积扇顶部区域、中上部区域和下部区域)下27种VOCs(挥发性有机污染物)、31种SVOCs(半挥发性有机污染物)、11种农药/PCBs(多氯联苯)及二英基于保护地下水的土壤通用筛选值进行推导. 结果表明,下部区域土壤通用筛选值最保守,顶部区域次之,中上部区域最宽松. 采用方法1推导的中上部区域土壤通用筛选值分别是顶部区域和下部区域的1.1~1.4、9.9~34.9倍,顶部区域土壤通用筛选值是下部的10.7~24.9倍;采用方法2推导的中上部区域土壤通用筛选值是下部区域的9.8~49.9倍. 对于有连续非饱和带弱水层的中上部区域及下部区域,方法2推导的结果较方法1宽松. 其中,PAHs(多环芳烃)、PCBs、二英、多数农药及酯类等高K_oc(有机碳-水分配系数)污染物均难以穿透清洁非饱和土壤进入地下水;而对于VOCs、酚类等低K_oc污染物,方法2推导的中上部区域土壤通用筛选值普遍是方法1的4.3~18.4倍,下部区域为方法1的3.0~24.6倍. 考虑到土壤通用筛选值应具有风险筛选功能及一定保守性,建议各种污染物以顶部区域方法1推导结果及中上部区域和下部区域方法2推导结果中最保守的值作为北京市基于保护地下水的土壤通用筛选值.      

The evaluation of ecology-based tourism potential in coastal villages in accordance with landscape values and user demands: the Bursa-Mudanya-Kumyaka case

Ecology-based tourism, which is integrated with nature, developed in environmentally conscious areas and enriched by different cultures, has become more important in the direction of extending tourism throughout the year. While the landscape values of the area are important functions for tourism activities to be carried out in natural characteristics, the preferences of the users are also important. Ecology-based tourism, which develops in connection with the concepts of intacteness, the protection-use balance and sustainability, and the demands and expectations of tourists, constitute the basis of our study. For this purpose, the study was carried out in Kumyaka, a small coastal neighborhood (village) of the county of Mudanya in the province Bursa, Turkey with important natural, historical and cultural assets. Fieldwork, field analysis, literature search, interviews with tourists coming to the field, interviews with the day trippers and survey work were conducted in the study. While evaluating the ecology-based tourism potential of the area, the demands and expectations of tourists have been taken into account together with the available area data. According to the results of the survey, tourists are mostly interested in having the most scenic value and quietness when choosing the area. The types of tourism that tourists most wanted to experience in the field were 42.38% culture tourism and 32.32% nature tourism. As a result of tourists’ demands and expectations, the tourism activities to be carried out in accordance with the possibilities of the area were examined and ecology based planning proposals and holistic planning approaches were developed.     

Environmental values and willingness to pay for a protected area: a segmentation of Italian university students

The study investigated students’ attitudes and willingness to pay (WTP) for the protection of some environmental values. The empirical study refers to a site located in Southern Italy and inserted into the Natura 2000 European Network. Students were segmented according to their appreciation of environmental values and the WTP for them. We considered two scenarios of the study site – of use and non-use – and four values – recreational, educational, bequest and existence. Five clusters, from the ‘unconcerned’ to the ‘committed’ one, reveal a diversity of profiles across the sample. Segmentation results point out the multifunctionality of the environmental heritage and highlight the heterogeneity of students’ environmental profiles.     

青藏高原典型高寒森林地带CH4浓度特征分析

基于波长扫描光腔衰荡光谱线监测系统在海螺沟国家大气背景站(以下简称海螺沟站)开展甲烷(CH_4)连续自动监测,通过局部近似回归法进行背景值筛分分析。结果表明:2016、2017年海螺沟站CH_4年均体积分数和筛分的背景体积分数接近,两者浓度水平与北半球中纬度地区全球本底站CH_4浓度水平相当;海螺沟站CH_4能够代表背景区域浓度水平。海螺沟站CH_4体积分数呈春、夏季低,秋、冬季高特征,季节变化主要受到特定的地理环境和大气环流的影响,大气环流占主导影响。夏季CH_4体积分数最低但日振幅最大,与高原高海拔背景下森林地带的辐射对流引起局地扩散作用有关。采用逐步逼近回归筛分CH_4监测数据,海螺沟站CH_4背景季浓度变化和北半球中高纬度地区其他背景站大气CH_4的季节变化特征以及CH_4季体积分数振幅基本一致。背景站四季的CH_4载荷贡献在16个风向分布结果表明,在春、夏季存在西风带下南亚方向污染物气团的远距离输送;青藏高原东部近地面在冬季处于反气旋冷高压控制下,而SSW方向风向能够短暂打破这种稳定的气象条件,污染物得到迅速扩散,SSW为负贡献。     

The values and vulnerabilities of ‘Star Wars Island’: exploring tensions in the sustainable management of the Skellig Michael World Heritage Site

This paper explores challenges in reconciling the cultural, economic and ecological pillars of the sustainable development concept. It does so by examining how conflicts in the management of an island off the Irish coast called Skellig Michael, which has been internationally designated for its significant cultural and ecological attributes, have been intensified by: (a) increasing tourist numbers; (b) a re-framing of the site’s identity and (c) changing visitor motivations. These have resulted from the amplified attention the island has received following the release of Star Wars: The Force Awakens and The Last Jedi in which it features prominently. Following a critical identification and discussion of the fault lines between different stakeholders involved in the conservation and use of the island, the paper advances a roadmap for action to help resolve animosity in the governance of the site and facilitate its sustainable management in the context of changing visitor numbers and profiles.     

北京PM2.5背景值定值方法及其变化特征研究

通过气团识别方式,确定了较强气团判别指标,定量评估了较强气团对北京上甸子区域大气本底站PM2.5浓度影响.结果显示,偏北风过程中PM2.5的背景值介于10.3~13.5μg/m3,平均值为(11.7±1.3)μg/m3;偏南风过程中PM2.5的背景值介于60.2~92.6μg/m3,平均值为(76.2±12.8)μg/m3.偏北风过程中,PM2.5背景值变化趋势不明显;偏南风过程中,PM2.5背景浓度呈线性下降趋势,下降速率为5.5μg/(m3×a).2009~2012年期间,区域本底站观测到的PM2.5年均值变化不大,这与北京地区的局地产生的二次PM2.5逐步增大有关,在一定程度上抵消了区域背景值下降的影响.当出现系统性偏南风时,北京以南区域输送对北京当地PM2.5浓度增加的平均贡献接近60%,但是自2009年开始逐步下降,截止2012年该贡献降低到44%.     

Evaluating the conservation impact of Antarctica's protected areas

Antarctic specially protected areas (ASPAs) are a key regulatory mechanism for protecting Antarctic environmental values. Previous evaluations of the effectiveness of the ASPA system focused on its representativeness and design characteristics, presenting a compelling rationale for its systematic revision. Upgrading the system could increase the representation of values within ASPAs, but representation alone does not guarantee the avoided loss or improvement of those values. Identifying factors that influence the effectiveness of ASPAs would inform the design and management of an ASPA system with the greatest capacity to deliver its intended conservation outcomes. To facilitate evaluations of ASPA effectiveness, we devised a research and policy agenda that includes articulating a theory of change for what outcomes ASPAs generate and how; building evaluation principles into ASPA design and designation processes; employing complementary approaches to evaluate multiple dimensions of effectiveness; and extending evaluation findings to identify and exploit drivers of positive conservation impact. Implementing these approaches will enhance the efficacy of ASPAs as a management tool, potentially leading to improved outcomes for Antarctic natural values in an era of rapid global change. Evaluación del impacto de conservación de las áreas protegidas de la Antártida