Evaluating Alternative Temporal Survey Designs for Monitoring Wetland Area and Detecting Changes Over Time in California

Evaluation of wetland extent and changes in extent is a foundation of many wetland monitoring and assessment programs. Probabilistic sampling and mapping provides a cost‐effective alternative to comprehensive mapping for large geographic areas. One unresolved challenge for probabilistic or design‐based approaches is how best to monitor both status (e.g., extent at a single point in time) and trends (e.g., changes in extent over time) within a single monitoring program. Existing wetland status and trends (S&T) monitoring programs employ fixed sampling locations; however, theoretical evaluation and limited implementation in other landscape monitoring areas suggest that alternative designs could increase statistical efficiency and overall accuracy. In particular, designs that employ both fixed and nonfixed sampling locations (alternately termed permanent and temporary samples), termed sampling with partial replacement (SPR), are considered to efficiently and effectively balance monitoring current status with detection of trends. This study utilized simulated sampling to assess the performance of fixed sampling locations, SPR, and strictly nonfixed designs for monitoring wetland S&T over time. Modeled changes in wetland density over time were used as inputs for sampling simulations. In contrast to previous evaluations of SPR, the results of this study support the use of a fixed sampling design and show that SPR may underestimate both S&T.     

基于生活垃圾分类的厨余垃圾采样方法研究

与复杂的混合生活垃圾相比,厨余垃圾成分较单一,需要针对性的采样方法.本研究基于生活垃圾分类背景,在《生活垃圾采样和分析方法》(CJ/T 313—2009)的基础上,就采样位点和采样节点数对分类存放的厨余垃圾采样的影响展开研究.研究结果表明,仅采集垃圾桶中间位点的样品不具有代表性,不同情景应有不同的采样策略.当厨余垃圾流节点数少于2时需采集所有节点,当厨余垃圾流节点数为3~7时需采集2个节点,而当厨余垃圾节点数为8~18时需采集3个节点,均少于CJ/T 313—2009中要求的采样节点数.厨余垃圾的总量增大,则其最少采样节点数相应上升,但最少采样点受到厨余垃圾流节点数的制约.     

基于重要抽样法的耐压球壳可靠性计算方法研究

目的 解决耐压球壳极小失效概率的可靠性计算问题。方法 在自适应Kriging的基础上,结合重要抽样法提出耐压球壳可靠性计算方法。该方法在较大失效概率下构建的Kriging模型基础上获得重要方向,在重要方向上计算得到较低失效概率下的设计点,以设计点为中心,构建小失效概率的Kriging模型,并通过此模型采用重要抽样法开展可靠性计算。结果 分别使用提出的重要抽样法和蒙特卡洛法计算了2个算例的失效概率,计算结果表明,该方法具有较高的精度和效率。使用该方法对某耐压球壳工作载荷下的失效概率进行了计算,计算得到该球壳失效概率为4.094×10^–96。结论 研究结果可为无失效方程下极低失效概率的可靠性计算问题提供参考。     

Prenatal diagnosis and psychological distress: Amniocentesis or chorionic villus biopsy?

The psychological reactions of 211 women undergoing prenatal diagnosis (PND) with amniocentesis (group A, n = 122) or chorionic villus biopsy (group V, n = 90) were exmained by questionnaires and interviews. The distress experienced while waiting for the test, during the test procedure, and while waiting for the result was reported by the women, both in questionnaires and in interviews. In the questionnaires, no difference between the two diagnostic methods was observed. In the interviews, however, the women undergoing amniocentesis appeared significantly more distressed by the procedure. In group A 97 per cent and in group V 100 per cent wished a method which, like chorionic villus biopsy, could be used in the first weeks of pregnancy. The risk of miscarriage was, as described in other studies, regarded as a serious threat by the pregnant women.     

CODMn重新稀释取样体积的推定

对原CODMn法测地表水二次取样体积进行了推导，建立了实际适用取样体积公式，具有一定的适用性。     

First-trimester prenatal diagnosis in quintuplets: A practical approach using step-by-step embryo reduction

A multiple pregnancy of high rank may occur in a couple at risk for a Mendelian disorder. Prenatal diagnosis is hampered by the difficulty of (1) obtaining chorionic villi from each zygote arid (2) unequivocally relating each sample to the corresponding embryo. The calculation of the genetic risk according to the number of zygotes led us to propose a diagnostic strategy based on embryo reduction, a technique initially designed to improve the perinatal outcome of multiple pregnancies with normal embryos. We report a case in which this approach allowed rational use of first-trimester chorionic villus sampling in a quintuplet pregnancy at risk for non-ketotic hyperglycinaemia, resulting in the selective birth of unaffected twins.     

决策树模型在水环境监测网络中选取代表性样点的应用

地表水体中的硝酸盐污染已经成为全球关注的热点环境问题之一。现今,国内外均建立了相关的监测网络对地表水体的水质实施长期监测,但是却导致大量的监测数据累积,给后续的科学研究工作带来了不便,尤其是在庞大的监测网络中如何选取有代表性样点的研究点则成为急需解决的问题之一。以比利时弗拉芒地区地表水的长期监测物理化学指标为例,利用决策树模型评估地表水样点的硝酸盐污染来源专家分类的有效性,为点位优化提供理论依据。原有监测点位的污染源专家分类和模型输出的可匹配率为80%,优化后监测点位从原有47个点降低到30个点,提高了监测工作效率。     

The in utero diagnosis and management of alloimmune thrombocytopenia

A case is presented in which percutaneous umbilical sampling (PUBS) was utilized in the second and third trimesters for the diagnosis and management of a pregnancy at risk for neonatal alloimmune thrombocytopenia (NAIT).     

Transabdominal chorionic villus sampling: Analysis of 350 consecutive cases

We report a series of 350 patients submitted to transabdominal chorionic villus sampling (CVS). A technique using two ultrasound-guided needles and a suction pump was used. In most cases, the procedure was performed between 9 and 13 weeks. Twenty-one pregnancies were selectively terminated; nine spontaneous abortions followed the procedure and one fetal loss after 28 weeks was recorded; 153 pregnancies are in progress and 169 delivered fetuses are alive and well. Transabdominal biopsy is a feasible and effective technique for CVS.     

The ‘Bayesics’ of Ranked Set Sampling

Ranked set sampling can be useful when measurements are expensive but units from the popu- lation can be easily ranked. In this situation one may draw k units from the population, rank them, select one on which to make the expensive measurement, draw another k units, rank them, select one, and so on. The method was originally suggested by McIntyre (1952) in connection with pasture yields and is obviously applicable in other situations as well. Dell and Clutter (1972) and Patil et al. (1994) explain the basics from a classical point of view. Our aim is to examine the procedure from a Bayesian point of view, determine whether ranked set sampling provides advantages over simple random sampling and explore some optimality questions