基于BP神经网络的煤层自燃预测

在全面分析影响煤层自燃因素的基础上,建立了煤层自燃预测的人工神经网络模型.应用该模型对某煤田的多个煤层样本进行了训练和预测,网络经过10次训练后,误差达到设定的最小值,6次预测测试中最大误差仅为0.027 8,最小的为0.000 1.研究表明,该模型精度较高,可用于预测煤层自燃的实际应用.     

氯碱企业生产过程中的重大危害分析及对策

分析了氯碱企业生产过程中的重大危害为中毒和火灾爆炸,提出了相应的对策.     

含信号控制人行横道的街道峡谷污染物扩散三维数值模拟

耦合微观交通仿真和机动车尾气排放模型,分别对含信号控制人行横道和不含信号控制人行横道的街道峡谷污染物排放进行计算,并以此为排放源,采用k-ε两方程模型与组分输运方程对风向与街道垂直时的污染扩散情况进行了三维数值模拟.结果表明,k-ε两方程模型与组分输运方程可以较好地模拟风向与街道垂直时三维街道峡谷内的污染物扩散情况.峡...     

岩溶地下河系统中有机氯的分布特征与来源分析

选取重庆老龙洞、青木关岩溶地下河为研究对象,采用气相色谱仪-微池电子捕获检测器(GC-μECD)分析两条地下河水体中21种有机氯农药(OCPs)的浓度.结果表明,南山地下河中六六六(HCHs)和艾氏剂类化合物(ALDs)是主要检出物,青木关地下河中HCHs和甲氧滴滴涕是主要检出物.南山、青木关地下河中均未检出o,p'-DDE、p,p'-DDE、o,p'-DDD,同时,青木关地下河还未检出o,p'-DDT、狄氏剂,其余OCPs在两条地下河中检出率高达100%.青木关地下河中OCPs浓度范围为145~278 ng·L-1之间,平均值为213 ng·L-1;南山老龙洞地下河中OCPs浓度介于17.7~40.8 ng·L-1之间,平均值为32.7ng·L-1.两条地下河中各OCPs组分表现为地下河出口大于入口.通过对OCPs污染来源分析,发现两地下河流域滴滴涕(DDTs)主要来自于历史上工业DDTs输入,氯丹主要来自于大气沉降.六六六(HCHs)主要来源是林丹的输入,南山地下河属于历史污染,青木关地下河上游的甘家槽有新的HCHs输入.与国内外其他各水体相比,南山地下河水体中HCHs、DDTs浓度处于低水平;青木关下河处于中等偏高水平.结合中外用水卫生标准,发现南山地下河和青木关地下河未超过饮水安全标准.青木关应禁止农田施用有机氯农药,保护地下河生态环境.     

Scale-up modeling of the twin roll casting process for AZ31 magnesium alloy

In the present study, a 2-D finite-element method (FEM) thermal-fluid-stress model has been developed and validated for the twin roll casting (TRC) of AZ31 magnesium alloy. The model was then used to quantify how the thermo-mechanical history experienced by the strip during TRC would change as the equipment was scaled up from a laboratory size (roll diameter = 355 mm) to a pilot scale (roll diameter = 600 mm) and to an industrial scale (roll diameter = 1150 mm) machine. The model predictions showed that the thermal history and solidification cooling rate experienced by the strip are not affected significantly by caster scale-up. However, the mechanical history experienced by the strip did change remarkably depending on the roll diameters. Casting with bigger rolls led to the development of higher stress levels at the strip surface. The roll separating force/mm width of strip was also predicted to increase significantly when the TRC was scaled to larger sizes. Using the model predicted results, the effect of both casting speed and roll diameter was integrated into an empirical equation to predict the exit temperature and the roll separating force for AZ31. Using this approach, a TRC process map was generated for AZ31 which included roll diameter and casting speed.     

基于CALPUFF模型的漳州市大气环境容量研究

研究表明：CALPUFF模式是运用于广域的大气扩散模型,在区域范围较大的复杂地形条件下的应用具有突出的优势.利用CALPUFF大气扩散模型模拟漳州市2009年气象场和污染物浓度场,采用监测值对模拟结果进行验证表明模型的适用性;基于现状污染源,建立大气污染物传递系数矩阵,结合线性优化法测算了不同环境空气质量标准下漳州市大气环境容量.     

氯气泄漏扩散半径估算与应急处置

氯气泄漏是常见的化学事故之一.通过对氯气的理化性质、危险特性和泄漏原因分析,估算氯气泄漏的扩散半径,同时以扩散半径作参考,提出氯气泄漏的应急处置措施,为氯气泄漏事故应急处理提供技术支持.     

基于等级全息建模的输油泵机组风险根源辨识*

为“挖掘”输油泵机组风险根源,降低设备预知性维护难度,结合输油泵多准则风险评价,提出1种基于等级全息建模的输油泵机组风险根源辨识方法,运用等级全息建模方法将输油泵系统分解为泵体结构、管理因素、环境因素、操作因素、技术因素、运行因素、设备安装7个子系统进行定性和定量分析。结果表明:相比危险与可操作性分析（HAZOP）、事故树分析（FTA）等传统风险辨识方法,等级全息建模（HHM）对轴承等关键部件以及压力等运行参数的监测更为深入,能够有效辨识输油泵机组高风险情景,提升输油泵的风险辨识效率。     

Spatiotemporal Variability of Modeled Watershed Scale Surface‐Depression Storage and Runoff for the Conterminous United States

This study explores the viability of using simulated monthly runoff as a proxy for landscape‐scale surface‐depression storage processes simulated by the United States Geological Survey’s National Hydrologic Model (NHM) infrastructure across the conterminous United States (CONUS). Two different temporal resolution model codes (daily and monthly) were run in the NHM with the same spatial discretization. Simulated values of daily surface‐depression storage (treated as a decimal fraction of maximum volume) as computed by the daily Precipitation‐Runoff Modeling System (NHM‐PRMS) and normalized runoff (0 to 1) as computed by the Monthly Water Balance Model (NHM‐MWBM) were aggregated to monthly and annual values for each hydrologic response unit (HRU) in the CONUS geospatial fabric (HRU; n = 109,951) and analyzed using Spearman’s rank correlation test. Correlations between simulated runoff and surface‐depression storage aggregated to monthly and annual values were compared to identify where which time scale had relatively higher correlation values across the CONUS. Results show Spearman’s rank values >0.75 (highly correlated) for the monthly time scale in 28,279 HRUs (53.35%) compared to the annual time scale in 41,655 HRUs (78.58%). The geographic distribution of HRUs with highly correlated monthly values show areas where surface‐depression storage features are known to be common (e.g., Prairie Pothole Region, Florida).     

Comparison and Evaluation of Gridded Precipitation Datasets in a Kansas Agricultural Watershed Using SWAT

Gridded precipitation datasets are becoming a convenient substitute for gauge measurements in hydrological modeling; however, these data have not been fully evaluated across a range of conditions. We compared four gridded datasets (Daily Surface Weather and Climatological Summaries [DAYMET], North American Land Data Assimilation System [NLDAS], Global Land Data Assimilation System [GLDAS], and Parameter‐elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model [PRISM]) as precipitation data sources and evaluated how they affected hydrologic model performance when compared with a gauged dataset, Global Historical Climatology Network‐Daily (GHCN‐D). Analyses were performed for the Delaware Watershed at Perry Lake in eastern Kansas. Precipitation indices for DAYMET and PRISM precipitation closely matched GHCN‐D, whereas NLDAS and GLDAS showed weaker correlations. We also used these precipitation data as input to the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model that confirmed similar trends in streamflow simulation. For stations with complete data, GHCN‐D based SWAT‐simulated streamflow variability better than gridded precipitation data. During low flow periods we found PRISM performed better, whereas both DAYMET and NLDAS performed better in high flow years. Our results demonstrate that combining gridded precipitation sources with gauge‐based measurements can improve hydrologic model performance, especially for extreme events.