一种改进的CSCA+PCA化工过程异常检测技术

为了解决化工过程异常检测时因参数众多且数据庞杂而导致一些异常无法被有效检出的问题,在Brownlee的克隆选择分类算法（CSCA）基础上,通过引入主成分分析（PCA）技术,进行数据降维和数据重整,探讨了人工免疫算法在化工过程异常检测中的适用效果和技术方案,以TE过程数据作为样本进行异常检测和分类实验。结果表明,过程异常数据的规模、属性的数目对CSCA异常检测效果具有明显影响,而通过主成分分析进行数据降维之后,CSCA检测效果有所提高;进一步的数据重整之后,CSCA对过程异常分类辨识的准确率可提升到85%以上;基于CSCA+PCA的数据降维及重构之后的过程异常检测技术方案,可以获得较高的异常检测准确率,从而一定程度上为化工过程安全运行提供技术保障。     

SPOT遥感数据在崇明东滩景观分类研究中的应用

以崇明东滩这一河口潮滩湿地为研究对象,利用ERDASIMAGINE图像处理软件,结合地面景观类型调查,对其1988年和2002年的SPOT遥感数据进行监督分类;对监督分类结果进行人机交互目视解译纠正,得到精度较高的崇明岛东部海岸带的景观图,并可此基础上进一步进行各种景观特征的定量分析和景观变化研究。最后讨论了不同研究目的对景观分类精度的要求,以及所采用信息源的分辨率能够划分至最细的景观要素类型。     

三峡库区武隆县滑坡灾害特点及成因机制

在大量实地调查和资料分析的基础上,主要研究了武隆县滑坡灾害的特点和成因机制。全县共有233处滑坡,滑坡体体积达1.36×108 m3,在重庆市和三峡库区都是属于滑坡灾害的重灾区。滑坡厚度分类以浅层滑坡和表层滑坡为主,物质组成分类以坡积层滑坡为主,滑坡体体积分类则以中型和小型滑坡为主。全县46个乡镇中41个有滑坡分布,总体分布不均。滑坡发育的基岩地层以页岩和泥岩最多,绝大多数滑坡发育在10°~30°的斜坡上。滑坡的成因机制主要表现在3个方面。易滑地层的广泛分布,即全县分布大量的泥岩、页岩等软弱岩层;地质构造及河流下切造成坡体结构的不稳定;暴雨和人为活动的诱发。     

Home buyouts and household recovery: neighborhood differences three years after Hurricane Sandy

Home buyout programs facilitate the permanent relocation of residents away from areas considered to be at risk from future hazards, though few studies have examined the impacts of home buyout programs on affected households and communities beyond the program implementation period. In this paper, we examine between-neighborhood variation in key recovery indicators for three neighborhoods that followed different paths to recovery after Hurricane Sandy: one that rebuilt in situ, one that participated in a buyout and relocated, and one located immediately adjacent to the buyout zone. Three years post-disaster, buyout participants are faring worse in terms of place attachment and social capital compared to residents in the other two neighborhoods, while the neighborhood adjacent to the buyout zone is also showing signs of decline. These findings suggest that the social costs of buyouts extend well into the recovery period, and that the place-based ties and social networks that would typically help individuals cope with disaster impacts and persevere through adversity may be diminished for buyout participants, ultimately hindering their recovery. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of buyouts on participating and affected communities, as well as implications for research and policy.     

构建基于GHS标准的黑头呆鱼(Pimephales promelas)急性毒性二元分类模型

鱼类急性毒性参数是进行化学品生态风险评估、分类标签等工作不可或缺的毒性指标。本文选取634个有机化学品对黑头呆鱼(Pimephales promelas)的急性毒性数据,并依据"全球化学品统一分类和标签制度"(GHS)中推荐的分类标准,将急性毒性值小于和大于100 mg·L-1的物质分别划分为有毒物质和无毒物质。以分类结果为建模指标,构建了基于欧几里德距离的K最近邻(k NN)二元分类模型。评估结果表明,模型训练集和验证集的预测准确度(Q)、敏感性(Sn)和特异性(Sp)参数均大于0.7,说明模型具有较好的预测能力。因而,在化学品分类标签工作中,可使用该模型预测缺失的鱼类急性毒性类别。     

基于卫星影像解译的华中地区自然景观分类与制图

依据１：１５０万中国卫星影像图并参考有关专题图件资料，通过景观组成要素分析法和专题图件对比分析法，拟定了华中地区自然景观分类系统并编制该区１：１５０万自然景观类型解译图，抽样检验表明，平均判对率达９０．５％。     

国内外安全生产发展规划编制的研究

为指导全国安全生产工作 ,促进安全生产与经济建设和社会进步协调发展 ,亟需编制国家安全生产发展规划 ,对我国安全生产进行科学规划。为此 ,笔者针对我国安全生产监督管理机构频繁改革、长期以来无安全生产发展指导性文件的情况 ,对美国、欧共体、澳大利亚等安全生产发展规划的目标、主要指标、行动计划、保障措施等方面进行了分析和研讨 ,对比分析了编制符合自身安全生产发展规划的趋势、风险预防及控制的原则和思路等内容 ,并结合我国实际 ,借鉴国外安全生产发展规划编制经验 ,探讨了我国安全生产发展规划编制的总体思路、原则、目标和指标类别、主要内容和编制程序等问题 ,取得的成果 ,对我国安全生产发展规划编制具有一定的参考意义。     

Establishing aquatic restoration priorities using a watershed approach

Since the passage of the Clean Water Act in 1972, the United States has made great strides to reduce the threats to its rivers, lakes, and wetlands from pollution. However, despite our obvious successes, nearly half of the nation's surface water resources remain incapable of supporting basic aquatic values or maintaining water quality adequate for recreational swimming. The Clean Water Act established a significant federal presence in water quality regulation by controlling point and non-point sources of pollution. Point-sources of pollution were the major emphasis of the Act, but Section 208 specifically addressed non-point sources of pollution and designated silviculture and livestock grazing as sources of non-point pollution. Non-point source pollutants include runoff from agriculture, municipalities, timber harvesting, mining, and livestock grazing. Non-point source pollution now accounts for more than half of the United States water quality impairments. To successfully improve water quality, restoration practitioners must start with an understanding of what ecosystem processes are operating in the watershed and how they have been affected by outside variables. A watershed-based analysis template developed in the Pacific Northwest can be a valuable aid in developing that level of understanding. The watershed analysis technique identifies four ecosystem scales useful to identify stream restoration priorities: region, basin, watershed, and site. The watershed analysis technique is based on a set of technically rigorous and defensible procedures designed to provide information on what processes are active at the watershed scale, how those processes are distributed in time and space. They help describe what the current upland and riparian conditions of the watershed are and how these conditions in turn influence aquatic habitat and other beneficial uses. The analysis is organized as a set of six steps that direct an interdisciplinary team of specialists to examine the biotic and abiotic processes influencing aquatic habitat and species abundance. This process helps develop an understanding of the watershed within the context of the larger ecosystem. The understanding gained can then be used to identify and prioritize aquatic restoration activities at the appropriate temporal and spatial scale. The watershed approach prevents relying solely on site-level information, a common problem with historic restoration efforts. When the watershed analysis process was used in the Whitefish Mountains of northwest Montana, natural resource professionals were able to determine the dominant habitat forming processes important for native fishes and use that information to prioritize, plan, and implement the appropriate restoration activities at the watershed scale. Despite considerable investments of time and resources needed to complete an analysis at the watershed scale, the results can prevent the misdiagnosis of aquatic problems and help ensure that the objectives of aquatic restoration will be met.     

长江三角洲与苏北海岸动态类型划分及侵蚀危险度研究

利用统计分析模型对长江三角洲与苏北海岸动态类型及海岸侵蚀灾害危险度进行了初步研究。首先根据形态一致性将该区域海岸划分为21个岸段,选取年平均高潮位、潮滩宽度、潮滩平均坡度、平均高潮位以上潮滩滩高、0－5m海水年平均含沙量,年淤进率,年蚀退率,年下蚀率,年积高率和潮滩年沉积量等10个变量描述海岸潮滩动力、形态和演变特片,利用因子分析和聚类分析,提取共通性变量,综合反映潮滩的自然特征,对海岸进行定量化类型划分,并根据各岸段主成分得分评价各岸段海岸侵蚀的危险度。     

丰山铜矿岩石声学特性研究及其在采场安全预报中的应用

对丰山铜矿的矿岩进行声波特性研究,依据声波特性参数将矿岩的稳定性分为3类,并建立了相应采场安全性的声学监测措施。利用声波特性可以实现对岩石的稳定性进行快速判断,并以此选择采矿方法、优化采场的结构参数及支护方式。通过对井下工作面长期的声发射特性参数的监测,初步确定了丰山铜矿岩石破坏的声发射特性参数的判据。并根据观测到的声发射特性参数时间序列,应用灰色理论模型来预报采场冒顶、片帮事故,通过对多个采场的成功预报,证明该模型的有效性。同时应用声波技术和声发射技术进行开采过程的安全预报是一种新的思路,对指导地下矿山安全生产具有重要的意义。