Forecasting the Spread of Invasive Rainbow Smelt in the Laurentian Great Lakes Region of North America

Abstract:  Rainbow smelt ( Osmerus mordax ) have invaded many North American lakes, often resulting in the extirpation of native fish populations. Yet, their invasion is incipient and provides the rationale for identifying ecosystems likely to be invaded and where management and prevention efforts should be focused. To predict smelt presence and absence, we constructed a classification-tree model based on habitat data from 354 lakes in the native range for smelt in southern Maine. Maximum lake depth, lake area, and Secchi depth (surrogate measure of lake productivity) were the most important predictors. We then used our model to identify lakes vulnerable to invasion in three regions outside the smelt's native range: northern Maine (52 of 244 lakes in the non-native range), Ontario (4447 of 8110), and Wisconsin (553 of 5164). We further identified a subset of lakes with a strong potential for impact (potential–impact lakes) based on the presence of fish species that are affected by rainbow smelt. Ninety-four percent of vulnerable lakes in the non-native range in Maine are also potential–impact lakes, as are 94% and 58% of Ontario and Wisconsin's vulnerable lakes, respectively. Our modeling approach can be applied to other invaders and regions to identify invasion-prone ecosystems, thus aiding in the management of invasive species and the efficient allocation of invasive species mitigation and prevention resources.     

基于外部性理论的中国环境管理体制设计

环境问题的外部性属性决定了其不可能依靠市场解决。必须进行适当的政府干预。研究外部性的意义在于内部化，即纠正市场失灵。本文对外部性进行了主体划分．建立了以时间和空间为基准的外部性分类矩阵，构建了外部性绝对大小和相对大小的概念模型。基于这些研究．分别回答环境问题是否需要管理、由谁来管、采取什么手段以及管到什么程度的问题．并由此提出“三级两层”的中国环境管理体制框架。跨行政区的环境外部性应当由上一级政府负责管理，在总社会成本最小化的前提下．应当在尽量小的范围实现较高程度的内部化，内部化手段的搭配符合费用效果最好原则。建议中国的环境管理体制改革在保留国家、省、市三级环境管理机构的基础上。设置环保总局和省环保局的分局以便直接管理省际、市际等外部性。     

Scenario study for a regional low-carbon society

Japan should undertake drastic greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions by the middle of this century in order to mitigate climate change problems. Municipalities should design and execute scenarios toward a low-carbon society suited to their respective regions. This study describes long-term future visions developed for Shiga Prefecture targeting CO₂ emission reductions of 30–50% by 2030, and presents scenarios to attain these targets, which are achievable with mild economic growth. For targets over a 30% reduction, region-specific measures including land-use reform and citizen behavioral changes are necessary. Compared with other regions in Japan, Shiga should give priority to a modal shift in transport, efficiency improvements in industry, and photovoltaic energy generation.     

试论新疆玛纳斯河流域农村经济与环境的现状及发展——对147团场经济与环境发展规划的初步建议

147团场自建场以来,在经济发展中取得了巨大成就,但同时必须看到自然对发展的限制与惩罚。从环境学出发,作者对该场的经济与环境发展规划进行了讨论,分析了农业生态环境的有利和不利条件,提出了发展经济与合理利用环境资源的建议。     

煤矿环境地质灾害及其分类、环境效应和影响特点

煤矿环境地质灾害是煤矿区环境问题的主要发生源。作者根据灾害发生和持续的时间、动力作用方式对其进行了分类,并总结了煤矿环境地质灾害的效应和影响特点。     

影响上海PM2.5污染不同源地和路径的数值模拟

对2014~2017年上海出现的PM_2.5中度及以上污染过程的地面形势进行分析,发现上海出现PM_2.5中度及以上污染的地面形势场主要可分为输送型、静稳型和叠加型3种类型,其中输送型是影响上海市PM_2.5中度及以上污染的主要天气形势,占比45.8%.通过选取典型个例,分析了3类污染天气型气象成因和维持机制.并利用WRF驱动FLEXPART模式,结合排放源清单,探讨不同污染天气型下影响上海的主要污染物来源：输送型污染有3条影响上海的主要污染传输通道,分别为东路（东海海面）、中路（江苏沿海）和西路（安徽-苏南）,主要时段在污染前1d;静稳型污染影响上海的潜在污染源区集中在上海及周边地区;叠加型污染既存在明显污染输送通道,也有明显的上海及周边潜在污染贡献区域.     

上海市臭氧污染的大气环流客观分型研究

利用T-mode主成分分析法(PCT)对上海2013—2017年3—10月925 hPa低层位势高度和全风速场进行大样本客观分型,总结了有利于和不利于促发上海地面臭氧污染的大气环流类型.发现有利于促发臭氧污染的环流形势都和副高有关,分别为副高控制(HC)和副高西北侧(HW),对应的臭氧超标率分别为68%和24.2%.前者的气象特点表现为辐射最强、温度最高有利于臭氧的光化学生成,臭氧浓度较弱副高形势平均偏高约50%;而后者以西向风为主,呈现明显的输送效应.相反不利于促发臭氧污染的环流类型都和低值系统相关,分别为低压北侧(LN)、低压东侧(LE)和低压西侧(LW),臭氧超标率均低于7%.其中LN影响下上海水平风速最大、扩散条件最好,不利于臭氧积聚;LE和LW影响下上海多云雨天气导致辐射降低,抑制了臭氧的光化学生成.     

生态红线管控绩效考核技术方案及制度保障研究

基于生态红线管控绩效考核必要性的分析,在尽可能规避目前我国环境绩效考核诸多弊端的前提下,制定了生态红线绩效考核框架及技术方案：从绩效考核主体、客体、考核内容与考核方法等方面完成了生态红线绩效考核框架的构建,确定了考核指标、计量模型和考核标准,并详细探讨了考核程序、考核成果的管理与应用等问题。研究旨在为地方政府实施生态红线管控绩效考核提供支撑。     

公产法定:国有自然资源资产分类调整的民法思考

新中国成立后,效法前苏联的中国物权立法是一种按照所有权主体分类调整的“身份型”立法,该立法模式不仅抹杀了不同类型国有财产的“个性”,而且也将自然资源的公共性和生态性消融于普通财产的财产属性和独占使用之中。鉴于“公产法定,私产推定”立法模式能够实现自然资源领域政治国家与市民社会之间的利益平衡,并且“公产法定”具有限制国家公权、保障公众对特定自然资源的平等利用权等制度功能,应以国有自然资源资产的分类管理为逻辑主线,重构自然资源国家所有权客体制度:一是明确自然资源为不动产的物权法地位,借助自然资源不动产登记单元和“复杂物”概念对具有特定生态功能的同一自然资源登记单元的不同自然资源的整合功能,将其纳入传统民法物权客体理论的调整之中。二是依据不同自然资源社会属性之强弱,将国有自然资源资产区分为公产和私产,建立分类调整的规则体系,防范公产之上的国家所有权“遁入私法”。三是物权立法应直接明确国有自然资源资产受公法和私法的双重调整,可以公法和私法相互配合的方式行使所有权。四是国家和集体所有之外的资源原则上可自由利用。     

Issues in reverse supply chain,part III: classification and simple analysis

Due to growing environmental concern and increasing awareness among customers, reverse supply chain (RSC) has received much attention among researchers and practitioners. Therefore it is necessary to provide a comprehensive list of references for other researchers (or readers), who are interested in RSC research to help stimulate further interest. In this paper, we present classification schemes and a simple analysis for the reverse supply chain. This literature review was mainly based on journal articles but also included web based documents, conference materials, working papers, etc. A total of 543 articles were reviewed, of which 506 were published between 1967 and 2008 from 100 reputed international journals. Based on the literature review carried out and the nature of research observed in RSC, we have introduced two classification schemes to systematically organise the published articles. The first classification scheme is based on the content related issues on RSC and the second one is based on the solution methodology followed by the researchers. These classification schemes indicate that there is considerable research potential for RSC. The results also show that there is strong growth in RSC research.