建筑安全风险因素分级排序的风险矩阵法

为减少风险分级排序时产生的风险结,在引入施工安全事故频率的基础上,采用单元格细化和Borda序值法改进原有的风险矩阵法。改进后的方法使得风险等级数量增加,风险结数量减少。将该方法应用于脚手架工程的风险因素的分级与排序,风险等级分为6级,且实现了12个因素的明确排序。     

基于随机森林的突发事件分级模型研究

突发事件的分级是快速响应和有效应对的基础,为了解决目前突发事件分级宽泛、主观性强和动态适应性弱等问题,将多分类器集成引入突发事件的分级过程中,借助随机森林组合分类器,针对突发事件特征,构建突发事件分级的随机森林模型,形成突发事件分级过程,进而对事前的应急预案制定、事中的应急资源配置和应急决策提供有力支撑;最后,以2014-2016年洪涝灾害突发事件为例检验构建的模型和过程。研究结果表明:与支持向量机方法相比,通过检验随机森林组合分类器分类结果准确率达到97.56%,在突发事件分级的应用上是可行的,进而可为突发事件的快速响应和应急决策提供信息支撑和参考依据。     

供水管网震后流量监测点的动态分级优化布局研究

为了提高管网地震监测点布局的准确性和合理性,基于管网微观水力计算模型和动态分级法,提出供水管网震后流量监测点的动态分级优化布局模型。首先,利用管网微观水力计算模型计算管段流量的影响系数,构建管段的影响系数矩阵,并利用信息熵确定管段权重;其次,标准化处理影响系数矩阵,通过聚类迭代提出供水管网地震流量监测点优化布局的动态分级方法,对供水管网震后流量监测点进行优化布置分级评定;最后,根据工程实例进行方法实践,结果表明:供水管网中的管线分类较为科学合理,地震监测点在供水管网上分布也比较均匀,而且该模型在一定程度上消除了人为因素的影响,保障了震时管网的监控效果和日常建设的合理性。     

湖北省降水分区研究

利用湖北省19个国家级气象台站1956~2009年逐月降水资料,采用分层聚类方法,基于聚类分析碎石图和聚类树状图来探索最适宜的分区方案,对湖北省全年、逐月降水进行了分区,并结合西太平洋副热带高压的移动探讨了分区的合理性,之后逐区进行了自相关分析和趋势分析。结果表明：湖北省全年降水分区为5区,1~12月降水分区分别为3、3、4、3、5、4、3、3、3、4、3、3个区。各月降水分区的差异性与西太平洋副热带高压的南北移动有密切关系,副高脊线在北纬18°以南、北纬20°以北,以及缓慢南退过程中,分区形式有较大差异。自相关分析以及趋势分析结果表明单一气象站不能代表所在分区的气候特点,而所在分区又不能代表湖北省的气候特点,基于不同目的,进行分区和综合,将有助于研究特定区域的气候特点     

自然灾害社会脆弱性评估研究——以上海市为例

基于投影寻踪聚类模型(PPC),结合基于实数编码的加速遗传算法(RAGA),对上海市进行了自然灾害社会脆弱性评估的尝试。结果表明:①灾害社会脆弱性最高的为崇明县,其次为宝山区和金山区;②灾害社会脆弱性最低的是黄埔区,其次是徐汇区和静安区;③总体而言,灾害脆弱性较低的地区集中于上海城市中心区,而城市边缘区的社会脆弱性一般较高。     

The Financial Impact of Different Stormwater Fee Types: A Case Study of Two Municipalities in Virginia

Eight stormwater user fees (SUFs) were applied to the City of Roanoke and the Town of Blacksburg, Virginia, to determine the effect each has on how land use type impacts the sources of revenue. Roanoke is larger and includes more industrial areas, but less multifamily impervious areas than Blacksburg, which translates differently in the SUFs. Residential parcels comprise the highest percentage of the revenue in all eight SUFs in Blacksburg and four in Roanoke. For both municipalities, two specific SUFs consistently comprised the highest percentage burden for residential homeowners while three other SUFs demonstrated the highest burden for commercial parcels. Open space parcels contain little impervious area, yet account for up to 27% of the revenue in the Blacksburg Area fee structure. Industrial parcels comprise more revenue in Roanoke, averaging 10.1‐4.5% in Blacksburg. Fee types that are easier to administer (e.g., Flat fees) may not fully represent the stormwater contribution from the parcels. SUF types that more accurately represent the stormwater burden on the municipality are also more administratively intensive and are more variable with fee factors.     

Community participatory landscape classification and biodiversity assessment and monitoring of grazing lands in northern Kenya

In this study, we asked the Ariaal herders of northern Kenya to answer "why, what and how" they classified landscape, and assessed and monitored the biodiversity of 10 km(2) of grazing land. To answer the "why question" the herders classified grazing resources into 39 landscape patches grouped into six landscape types and classified soil as 'warm', 'intermediate' or 'cold' for the purpose of land use. For the "what question" the herders used soil conditions and vegetation characteristics to assess biodiversity. Plant species were described as 'increasers', 'decreasers' or 'stable'. The decreaser species were mostly grasses and forbs preferred for cattle and sheep grazing and the increasers were mostly woody species preferred by goats. The herders evaluated biodiversity in terms of key forage species and used absence or presence of the preferred species from individual landscapes for monitoring change in biodiversity. For the "how question" the herders used anthropogenic indicators concerned with livestock management for assessing landscape potential and suitability for grazing. The anthropogenic indicators were related to soils and biodiversity. The herders used plant species grazing preferences to determine the links between livestock production and biodiversity. By addressing these three questions, the study shows the value of incorporating the indigenous knowledge of herders into classification of landscape and assessment and monitoring of biodiversity in the grazing lands. We conclude that herder knowledge of biodiversity is related to the use as opposed to exclusive conservation practices. This type of knowledge is extremely valuable to conservation agencies for establishing a baseline for monitoring changes in biodiversity in the future.     

上海郊区小型沼气发展的前景与方向

文章介绍了上海郊区沼气开发利用的发展历程和现状,分析了上海沼气发展萎缩的原因,指出上海在节能减排的大形势、寻找合理的农村生活垃圾处理出路和解决小型禽畜养殖场的环境问题等压力下,对郊区的沼气发展产生了新的需求。而以小型养殖场为中心、吸纳农村有机生活垃圾的小型沼气系统则是上海郊区未来沼气发展的方向,也是新农村环境整治的可行途径。     

基于现场测试的斜拉桥有限元模型修正

由于多年使用,桥的结构材料等都已经发生变化,因此在研究桥的当前工作状态时,必须依照现场测试结果,将初始模型修正为符合现阶段实际情况的有限元模型。本文以黄河胜利大桥为工程背景,根据设计资料建立了该桥初始有限元模型,用ANSYS通用软件开发了索力修正程序,该程序通过调整拉索的初始应变和附加质量块,使模型索力与设计索力之间误差在5%以内。计算发现,有限元模型中的施工顺序对成桥状态有着很大影响,应通过单元生死技术进行施工模拟。本文以各级加载工况下挠度、索力的变化情况作为控制目标,最终建立了能够反映加载工况下挠度变化、索力变化的黄河胜利大桥基准有限元模型,为今后监测桥的索力变化情况进而了解整座桥的工作状态奠定了基础。     

化学品危险性鉴别分类研究的现状与展望

从对GHS(化学品分类及标记全球协调制度)化学品危险性鉴别分类的分析出发,归纳和总结了联合国、欧盟、美国以及中国的化学品危险性鉴别分类研究现状;提出化学品危险性鉴别分类是获取化学品安全信息、评估化学品的固有危险性的重要手段;给出化学品危险性鉴别分类试验必须满足OECD(经济合作与发展组织)的各项标准和准则;对化学品危险性鉴别分类的应用前景及未来工作进行评述和展望;指出为化学品安全管理、事故应急救援、事故调查及做好基础数据的积累是今后研究工作的努力方向;提出了借鉴GHS,REACH(化学品注册、评估、许可和限制)等先进化学品安全监管法规,对完善我国的化学品安全监管制度,化学品鉴别分类标准的重要现实意义。