试论黄淮海地区的自然资源及国家级作物商品基地的建设

根据中国主要农业区——黄淮海地区的自然和社会经济条件,分析了该区小麦、玉米、大豆、棉花等在气候-土壤生态适应性的基础上,采用逐级生产力估算方法,计算出四大作物的商品量,论证了该地区建设为全国性四大作物商品基地的可能性。     

中国粮食支持政策该向何处去?--来自商品储备模型量化政策评估的证据

粮食安全是社会稳定、经济发展和国家安全的重要基础,粮食支持政策是粮食安全国家战略的核心抓手。过去以托市收储为主要特征的粮食支持政策曾经有效提高了农民种粮积极性和粮食供应能力,但国内市场矛盾累积和多边贸易争端加剧将托市收储推到改革关口。在改革窗口期,跳出国内研究以经验判断、逻辑推演的传统,采用国际农业政策分析中普遍使用的量化评估方法,精确考察和预测粮食支持手段的政策效应,具有迫切必要性、理论和现实意义。基于此,借鉴Wright&William经典商品储备模型(Commodity Storage Model)分析框架,构建一个考虑社会福利动态最优的小麦市场模型,对调低托市价格/取消托市、实行生产者补贴、“托市+生产者补贴”双层政策和补贴私人储备四种改革措施进行了数值优化和模拟分析,从市场稳定、农民保护、粮食安全、财政成本和黄箱限制五维评价指标,详细刻画不同改革措施的改革效果和政策空间后发现:①取消托市、降低托市价格和补贴生产者均会不同程度冲击市场稳定、农民收益和粮食安全。②“托市+生产者补贴”能够以黄箱限制内的成本达到可观的增产增收效果,私人储备补贴高效率与低效果并存。③托市政策具有优良的稳市效果,双层政策则在产量、收入支撑上效果突出。这意味着不应贸然取消托市,改革取向也不应囿于非此即彼式的政策抉择,而应建立多层次粮食支持体系,收缩托市范围并将其后置,增加生产者补贴力度,适度引入私人民间收储以强化效果、降低成本、培育市场,从而在粮食安全保障能力不削弱的前提下,进一步释放市场活力、降低多边贸易争端风险。     

温州市农业区域开发总体构想

本文分析评价了温州市农业资源，农业开发条件与潜力，提出了农业区域开发的指导思想，总体目标与主要任务，确定了农业商品生产基地，划分了农业开发区，阐述了农业区域开发的对策与措施。     

Trends in real commodity prices: How real is real?

Testing for the existence of downward trends in real commodity prices has been the focus of several studies since the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis was formulated back in 1950. In this article, we focus on annual and monthly series of various commodity categories and consider alternative price deflators. Based on the methodology of Harvey et al. (2010), which is robust to the order of integration of the time series, we conclude that the time frequency and the price deflators play a key role when testing for the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis. For instance, at an annual frequency (1900–2003, 1900–2008), it becomes considerably more likely to support it when deflating by the unadjusted US CPI-all items than when deflating by the Manufactures Unit Value (MUV) Index or the Historical Price Index of Manufactures (HPIM). This finding is in agreement with the Svedberg and Tilton (2006) discussion on the CPI's overestimation of inflation and the measurement of the real price of copper. When dealing with monthly data (January 1957–December 2010), our results show that real prices tend not to reject the null hypothesis of a trendless series, except when deflating by the PPI-Crude Materials and, to a lesser extent, by the HPIM.     

Assessing the ecosystem service of air pollutant removal by urban trees in Guangzhou (China)

In Chinese cities, air pollution has become a serious and aggravating environmental problem undermining the sustainability of urban ecosystems and the quality of urban life. Besides technical solutions to abate air pollution, urban vegetation is increasingly recognized as an alternative ameliorative method by removing some pollutants mainly through dry deposition process. This paper assesses the capability and monetary value of this ecosystem service in Guangzhou city in South China. The results indicated an annual removal of SO(2), NO(2) and total suspended particulates at about 312.03Mg, and the benefits were valued at RMB90.19 thousand (US$1.00=RMB8.26). More removal was realized by recreational land use due to a higher tree cover. Higher concentration of pollutants in the dry winter months induced more removal. The lower cost of pollution abatement in China generated a relatively subdued monetary value of this environmental benefit in comparison with developed countries. Younger districts with more extensive urban trees stripped more pollutants from the air, and this capacity was anticipated to increase further as their trees gradually reach final dimensions and establish a greater tree cover. Tree cover and pollutant concentration constitute the main factors in pollutant removal by urban trees. The efficiency of atmospheric cleansing by trees in congested Chinese cities could be improved by planting more trees other than shrubs or grass, diversifying species composition and biomass structure, and providing sound green space management. The implications for greenery design were discussed with a view to maximizing this ecosystem service in Chinese cities and other developing metropolises.     

Shifting paths to conservation: policy change discourses and the 2008 US farm bill

From 2004 until 2006, reform of US agricultural subsidy programmes seemed a likely result of pressure from the World Trade Organization. Many groups saw this pressure as an opportunity to ‘green’ farm policy by crafting environmental service payments that could replace crop subsidies. Yet the 2008 US farm bill fell short of such drastic changes. This paper uses discourse analysis to trace the decline of prospects for reform of the farm bill, and a shift to incremental policy making between 2006 and 2008. It finds that, in addition to political and situational factors, striking discursive shifts altered policy debates and outcomes to create particular conservation impacts. It thus argues for broader use of rhetoric theory and discourse analysis to assess environmental policy. Implications for land conservation are presented in the context of interest group tactics.     

考虑供应中断的灾后安全救援血液优化调度研究

血液应急保障是灾后安全救援的重要环节。为既有效满足需求,又避免盲目、过量的采血、调血增大血液过期报废压力甚至血荒的发生,保障灾后安全救援顺利进行,针对血液的易腐特性,提出血液应急调度的特点,并建立在物联网技术支持下的多时段、多类型血制品、多种运输方式的优化调度模型,通过合理调用库存血,组织自采血、外调血,并确定相应的数量以满足用血需求,实现血液应急保障系统响应时间和调度总成本最小化目标。采用ILOG CPLEX软件对模型进行求解,结合汶川特大地震的实际案例,进行数值仿真与结果分析,并给出在不同中断情景下的调度策略,表明通过建立双向互调的血液供应网络,并采用调度优化方法能够以更短的时间满足用血需求,同时减小调配成本和血液报废压力,能更好地应对灾后救援中出现的供应中断情况。     

试论开发性农业

积极发展开发性农业,可以引导农民开辟新的生产领域和致富来源,有利于安排剩余劳动力,调整产业结构,增加产品,发展商品经济。开发性农业是以资源、市场为导向,具有较强的专业化、基地化、系列化、商品化生产特点。目前尚未利用或利用不够充分的农业资源还较多,只要政策对头、措施得力,充分开发利用后,将是我国农业发展的一条重要出路。     

试论黄淮海地区的自然资源及国家级作物商品基地的建设

根据中国主要农业区--黄淮海地区的自然和社会经济条件,分析了该区小麦、玉米、大豆、棉花等在气候-土壤生态适应性的基础上,采用逐级生产力估算方法,计算出四大作物的商品量,论证了该地区建设为全国性四大作物商品基地的可能性。