珠江三角洲水位演变分析

全球气候变暖导致的海平面加速上升已是不争的事实,其长期累积的结果将给沿海地区造成巨大威胁。利用层次聚类分析法、灰关联法、相关分析法等重点分析了海平面上升对珠江三角洲水位的影响。结果显示：海平面上升对珠江三角洲代表站的年平均水位和年最低水位的影响大于对年最高水位的影响;海平面上升对马口站和三水站水位的影响小于河床下切和径流的影响;海平面上升对珠江河口区水位的影响由三角洲深处向口门区有增强趋势。掌握海平面上升对水位的影响规律,对于河口地区的防灾减灾和水资源的合理开发利用具有重要的指导意义。     

The interactive effects of conscientiousness,openness to experience,and political skill on job performance in complex jobs: The importance of context

Caveats concerning the ability of personality to predict job performance have been raised because of seemingly modest criterion‐related validity. The goal of the present research was to test whether narrowing the context via the type of job (i.e., jobs with complex task demands) and adding a social skill‐related moderator (i.e., political skill) would improve performance prediction. Further, along with political skill, the broad factor of personality demonstrated in prior research to have the strongest criterion validity (i.e., conscientiousness) was joined with a narrow construct closely related to openness to experience (i.e., learning approach) in a three‐way interactive prediction of supervisor‐rated task performance. With the employee–supervisor dyads among professionals, but not with the control group of non‐professional employees, task performance was predicted by the three‐way interaction, such that those high on all three received the highest performance ratings. Implications, strengths and limitations, and directions for future research are discussed. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

氢氧化镁-壳聚糖复合絮凝剂对印染废水的脱色研究

使印染废水脱色是废水处理的重要问题,利用无枳／有机复合絮凝剂可取得优良的脱色效果。采用氢氧化镁一壳聚糖复合絮凝剂对印染废水进行脱色处理,研究了pH值、壳聚糖投加量、复合絮凝剂加入量等对脱色效果的影响。结果表明氢氧化镁一壳聚糖复合絮凝剂比单独使用氢氧化镁絮凝剂脱色效果好。壳聚糖是一种天然高分子化合物,是甲壳素的脱乙基产物。来源丰富,且具有无毒副作用、易降解等优点。利用壳聚糖作为复配剂制备的复合絮凝减少了镁盐的使用量,有效降低了废水处理成本,避免引起二次污染。     

Simulation analysis of environmental risk accident and management of high-sulfur gas field development in complex terrain

Environmental risk of high sulfur gas field exploitation has become one of the hot spots of environmental management studies. Severe gas H₂S blowout accidents in recent years have shown that poor understanding and estimates of the poisonous gas movement could lead to dangerous evacuation delays. It is important to evaluate the real concentration of H₂S, especially in complex terrain. Traditional experiential models are not valid in the case of rough terrain, especially in low-lying areas where the gas accumulates. This study, using high sulfur content gas field of Sichuan “Pu Guang gas field” as study object and adopting objective diagnosis of wind field of land following coordinate three dimensions, applied Lagrangian Puff Model and breaking up technique of puffs to simulate the H₂S diffusion condition of blowout accidents produced in the high sulfur content gas field of complex terrain area. The results showed that the H₂S distribution did not occur mainly in low wind direction, and due to the obstruction of the mountain’s body, it accumulated in front of mountain on produced turn over, flowed around submitted jumping type distribution. The mountain waist near the hilltop and low hollow river valley site rapture points simulating contrast showed that the higher the rapture point, the better the diffusing condition of pollutant, the distribution of risk sensitive point decided piping rupture environmental risk size combining the H₂S diffusion result and residential area dispersing in the study area, synthetic judge located in the high rapture point environmental risk was smaller than the low hollow point, thus it was suggested to carryout laying of lining build of equal high line of higher terrain. According to simulation results, the environmental risk management measures aimed at putting down adverse effects were worked out.     

基于改进辐射模型的乡镇人口流动网络研究

乡镇尺度的人口流动联系和空间结构研究对统筹区域城镇体系规划和产业结构调整具有重要意义.本文以复杂网络理论为研究视角,将空间可达性引入传统辐射模型进行参数修正,构建乡镇人口流动网络;从节点和社团结构以及无标度和小世界特征等方面,探讨在地域差异影响下人口流动的空间分布格局和复杂网络特征,并以荆门市55个乡镇为例进行实证研究.结果表明:①荆门市乡镇人口流动网络的节点度分布以高发展水平乡镇为核心,呈现“一横二纵”的空间分异格局,与荆门市城镇体系和产业布局存在极强的耦合关系;②全网包含四个社团,各社团内部联系紧密且空间结构特征各异,社团间联系相对松散.③受空间距离和地理环境影响,网络的无标度特征不够明显;④网络具有一定的小世界特征,整体联通性和局部集聚性较好.本文通过对传统模型进行方法改进,实现了异质空间下乡镇人口流动联系及分布的可视化表达,实例研究结果可为荆门市城镇规划和产业布局提供决策思路.     

地形地貌对豫东平原浅层高氟地下水分布的控制

氟是人体内所必须的微量元素,但过多的摄入会引发氟中毒.豫东平原在全国来说是个氟中毒严重的地区,高氟水分布范围广,背景值高,当地居民往往通过饮用浅层地下水而导致氟中毒.浅层高氟水的分布总体上呈由西北向东南逐渐增多的态势,而局域的地形地貌使得高氟水的分布呈现出斑状、条带状的形态.一般来说,洼地有利于高氟水的富集.     

NGO与地方政府合作参与灾后重建的综合集成模式——以汶川大地震为例

对汶川大地震国外非政府组织NGO的援建工作进行了深入调研;针对国外NGO—国内NGO—当地政府综合集成模式进行了分析。统筹优选三者之间的关系,综合外部、集成内部、统筹环境、优选效益最大化模式,构建了国外NGO与当地政府综合集成模式框架。通过互反馈结构说明灾后重建工程是开放的复杂的巨系统网络结构;并提出运行模式与实践框架;运用统筹优选的方法,分析了国外NGO、国内NGO、当地政府的关系及统筹优选图。     

危化品事故情景推演网络构建及关键节点分析*

为有效应对危化品事故发生与演变时存在的动态性及不确定性问题,基于事故演变过程中的关键情景状态及对应孕灾环境、应急活动和处置目标等要素,引入动态贝叶斯网络方法,构建危化品事故情景推演网络,并结合复杂网络知识,对孕灾环境和应急活动2类事故影响因素节点进行敏感性和重要度分析。结果表明:情景推演网络计算的情景节点概率符合事故发生的实际情况,能够对危化品事故在不同孕灾环境和应急救援下的演变路径进行推演,并且分析得到燃烧物、消防力量、火场环境和建筑密度等关键影响因素节点,研究结果可为事故处理提供应急辅助决策支持。     

应用复合碱式氯化铝对垃圾渗沥液进行预处理的研究

采用生物法处理垃圾渗沥液 ,其出水CODCr、色度和含盐量等指标往往大于排放标准。应用亚滤技术作深度处理 ,可有效地去除剩余的污染物质 ,使出水达标。但由于渗沥液中存在大量的胶体微粒 ,对亚滤管产生阻垢作用 ,从而堵塞住亚滤管微孔 ,增加动力消耗 ,影响处理效果。故采用一种新型高效的复合型无机高分子混凝剂———聚硫氯化铁铝 (PAFCS)用于亚滤装置的预处理。通过与碱式氯化铝 (PAC)混凝剂的对比研究表明 ,PAFCS表现出比PAC更好的除浊、脱色能力 ,可有效地去除掉垃圾渗沥液中的浊度、胶粒和部分CODCr,从而使亚滤装置发挥最大效能。结果表明 ,PAFCS的投加量在1 50— 2 0 0mg/L左右 ,pH值在 5左右 ,沉降时间为 40— 50min的条件下 ,混凝效果最佳 ,浊度去除率可达到 90 % ,CODCr去除率可达 40 %左右。     

大同盆地复杂地形下近场大气污染物扩散模型选取研究

基于大同盆地地形和气象站数据对山区复杂地形下的近地面风场特征进行分析,发现大同盆地内特殊的地形构造所形成的气流通道对其主导风向存在明显影响.在不开展实地气象观测、仅引用周边气象站数据的条件下,CALPUFF模拟的电厂处西南、东北风向风频分别为40.5％、14.9％,AERMOD模拟的电厂处西南、东北风向风频分别为19....