复杂社会技术系统安全事故的成因结构敏感性及预防对策研究

简要回顾现有复杂社会技术系统安全事故的成因理论存在的局限性,根据大量统计资料和经验总结构建事故成因理论的缺陷。该研究试图从分析和推理入手,根据复杂社会技术系统运行机制及事故成因结构敏感性特征,探索由于新技术快速普及应用而不断涌现的复杂社会技术系统的失效机制及事故的成因理论;解释复杂社会技术系统安全事故的严重程度差异性、时间方向性及情境依赖性;为任何因新技术普及应用而产生的人造系统的安全分析及事故预防提供理论和方法支撑。     

企业生产安全事故的“基因”分析

思索生产安全事故频发共性表象"违法、违章"背后的原因,提出"生产安全事故基因"概念。分析得出"去小概率性"、"社会责任缺失"和"非货币化产出分析能力短缺"3种生产安全事故基因,前两种基因是不可去基因,后一种是可去基因,三者会在不同的条件下以显性或隐性的形式呈现,并作用于生产过程;提出企业组织安全进化的常规对策——完善市场经济环境,创新对策——教育要为"安全"生产服务,强调学历教育系统在创新对策中的重要地位和作用。通过"基因"分析及其对策,为安全生产培养安全管理人员和相关人才,推动安全生产,实现经济与社会和谐发展。     

行为安全管理理论在我国的实践困境及其解决途径

行为安全管理理论在我国被广泛宣传与应用,但在概念理解、定量判断及影响因素的分析等方面存在着认识误区,要改变行为安全管理理论在实践中的困境,发挥其应有作用,笔者认为:应首先对理论研究中的相关概念进行规范,加强对我国生产安全事故与行为安全之间的定量关系研究;并将工程技术措施和组织管理措施作为事故风险的控制重点;探索符合我国职工特点的安全教育培训方式,增强企业的安全生产主体责任意识,提高安全投入的有效性,将安全融入到经济与社会发展过程中。只有为行为安全管理理论的实践和应用提供良好的环境和保障,才能进一步提升我国企业的生产安全事故风险控制水平。     

我国危险化学品事故统计分析及对策研究

基于2005—2008年我国发生的1565起危险化学品事故,从事故发生时间、发生地点、发生环节等方面分析事故的致因、特点以及规律,可以发现:近3年来我国危险化学品事故呈逐渐下降趋势;石化产业大省是危险化学品事故高发省份;每年3—8月是危险化学品事故高发时期;每天上午10点和下午3点是危险化学品事故高发时间;生产、运输、储存是危险化学品产业链六大环节中的事故高发环节。根据统计结果分析,指出我国危险化学品安全管理存在的问题,并提出预防和减少危险化学品事故的对策。     

盐穴地下储气库事故统计及风险分析

借鉴输气管道和二氧化碳地下封存设施的风险评价方法,结合盐穴地下储气库的事故统计分析,对储气库系统中的潜在风险因素进行12大类、35小类的初步分类,并归纳总结了盐穴地下储气库的3种主要事故类型。采用事故树分析的风险评价方法,对13种主要风险因素进行风险识别。在此基础上,提出定量风险评价的重要工程模型,其包括气体水合物模型、盐穴稳定性评价模型以及气体泄漏模型。该风险分析方法和工程模型有助于定量评价盐穴地下储气库的主要风险因素,为储库的安全稳定运行提供了科学依据。     

基于事故机理和管理因素的地铁坍塌事故分析——以杭州地铁坍塌事故为实证

从技术角度分析地铁坍塌事故发生的机理,以安全事故致因层次为基础,将管理因素分为4部分,即人员因素、环境因素、材料因素和设备因素;进一步分析地铁坍塌事故发生的原因,构建地铁坍塌事故致因的鱼刺图;实证分析杭州地铁坍塌事故的致因,并构建杭州地铁坍塌事故致因的鱼刺图;在实证分析基础上,从地铁施工前与地铁施工时两时间段,针对人员因素、环境因素、材料因素和设备因素4方面管理因素,提出地铁坍塌事故的防范措施。以事故机理研究为基础,以管理因素研究为核心是研究地铁坍塌事故的必由之路,将对地铁工程的安全管理有一定的指导意义。     

基于模糊影响图方法的库存弹药事故概率分析

针对库存弹药安全的特殊性,在分析国内外库存弹药典型事故案例的基础上,指出FTA、ETA等传统概率计算方法存在的局限。提出一种基于模糊影响图(FID)的库存弹药事故概率分析方法,并对FID模型的构建过程和算法进行概述;以弹药被盗事故作为实例分析,并得到事故概率分布图和累积概率曲线。结果表明,FID的算法理论及建模过程能较好地克服FTA、ETA等传统方法的局限性,实例分析指出弹药被盗事故在10-4数量级的隶属度最高,且事故发生概率更趋向于10-3～10-1数量级,从而得到一旦仓库安全防范措施不到位,就很有可能发生弹药被盗事故的结论。     

Soil contamination of heavy metals in the Katedan Industrial Development Area, Hyderabad, India

Studies on quantitative soil contamination due to heavy metals were carried out in Katedan Industrial Development Area (KIDA), south of Hyderabad, Andhra Pradesh, India under the Indo-Norwegian Institutional Cooperation Programme. The study area falls under a semi-arid type of climate and consists of granites and pegmatite of igneous origin belonging to the Archaean age. There are about 300 industries dealing with dyeing, edible oil production, battery manufacturing, metal plating, chemicals, etc. Most of the industries discharge their untreated effluents either on open land or into ditches. Solid waste from industries is randomly dumped along roads and open grounds. Soil samples were collected throughout the industrial area and from downstream residential areas and were analysed by X-ray Fluorescence Spectrometer for fourteen trace metals and ten major oxides. The analytical data shows very high concentrations of lead, chromium, nickel, zinc, arsenic and cadmium through out the industrial area. The random dumping of hazardous waste in the industrial area could be the main cause of the soil contamination spreading by rainwater and wind. In the residential areas the local dumping is expected to be the main source as it is difficult to foresee that rain and wind can transport the contaminants from the industrial area. If emission to air by the smokestacks is significant, this may contribute to considerable spreading of contaminants like As, Cd and Pb throughout the area. A comparison of the results with the Canadian Soil Quality Guidelines (SQGL) show that most of the industrial area is heavily contaminated by As, Pb and Zn and local areas by Cr, Cu and Ni. The residential area is also contaminated by As and some small areas by Cr, Cu, Pb and Zn. The Cd contamination is detected over large area but it is not exceeding the SQGL value. Natural background values of As and Cr exceed the SQGL values and contribute significantly to the contamination in the residential area. However, the availability is considerably less than anthropogenic contaminants and must therefore be assessed differently. The pre- and post-monsoon sampling over two hydrological cycles in 2002 and 2003 indicate that the As, Cd and Pb contaminants are more mobile and may expect to reach the groundwater. The other contaminants seem to be much more stable. The contamination is especially serious in the industrial area as it is housing a large permanent residing population. The study not only aims at determining the natural background levels of trace elements as a guide for future pollution monitoring but also focuses on the pollution vulnerability of the watershed. A plan of action for remediation is recommended.     

Fecal source tracking by antibiotic resistance analysis on a watershed exhibiting low resistance

The ongoing development of microbial source tracking has made it possible to identify contamination sources with varying accuracy, depending on the method used. The purpose of this study was to test the efficiency of the antibiotic resistance analysis (ARA) method under low resistance by tracking the fecal sources at Turkey Creek, Oklahoma exhibiting this condition. The resistance patterns of 772 water-isolates, tested with nine antibiotics, were analyzed by discriminant analysis (DA) utilizing a five-source library containing 2250 isolates. The library passed various representativeness tests; however, two of the pulled-sample tests suggested insufficient sampling. The resubstitution test of the library individual sources showed significant isolate misclassification with an average rate of correct classification (ARCC) of 58%. These misclassifications were explained by low antibiotic resistance (Wilcoxon test P < 0.0001). Seasonal DA of stream E. coli isolates for the pooled sources human/livestock/deer indicated that in fall, the human source dominated (P < 0.0001) at a rate of 56%, and that human and livestock respective contributions in winter (35 and 39%), spring (43 and 40%), and summer (37 and 35%) were similar. Deer scored lower (17–28%) than human and livestock at every season. The DA was revised using results from a misclassification analysis to provide a perspective of the effect caused by low antibiotic resistance and a more realistic determination of the fecal source rates at Turkey Creek. The revision increased livestock rates by 13–14% (0.04 ≤ P ≤ 0.06), and decreased human and deer by 6–7%. Negative misclassification into livestock was significant (0.04 ≤ P ≤ 0.06). Low antibiotic resistance showed the greatest effect in this category.     

Modelling vegetation greenness responses to climate variability in a Mediterranean terrestrial ecosystem

Accurate knowledge of the quality and environmental impact of the highway runoff in Pear River Delta, South China is required to assess this important non-point pollution source. This paper presents the quality characterization and environmental impact assessment of rainfall runoff from highways in urban and rural area of Guangzhou, the largest city of Pear River Delta over 1 year’s investigation. Multiple regression and Pearson correlation analysis were used to determine influence of the rainfall characteristics on water quality and correlations among the constituents in highway runoff. The results and analysis indicates that the runoff water is nearly neutral with low biodegradability. Oil and grease (O&G), suspended solids (SS) and heavy metals are the dominant pollutants in contrast to the low level of nutrient constituents in runoff. Quality of highway runoff at rural site is better than that of at urban site for most constituents. Depth and antecedent dry period are the main rainfall factors influencing quality of highway runoff. The correlation patterns among constituents in highway runoff at urban site are consistent with their dominant phases in water. Strong correlations (r ≥ 0.80) are found among chemical oxygen demand (COD), total phosphorus, Cu and Zn as well as conductivity, nitrate nitrogen and total nitrogen. O&G, COD, SS and Pb in highway runoff at urban site substantially exceed their concentrations in receiving water of Pear River. The soil directly discharged by highway runoff at rural site has contaminated seriously by heavy metals in surface layer accompanying with pH conversion from original acidic to alkaline at present.