广西一个典型矿业镇环境中重金属污染分析

广西河池市是我国重要的有色金属基地.以该市一个典型的矿业镇作为研究对象,采集了该镇周围23个旱地土壤样品,并在镇里布设两个大气采样点采集了可吸入颗粒物(PM10)样品,运用ICP-MS分析了样品中20种金属元素的含量,采用地积指数法判定旱地土壤和可吸入颗粒物中污染元素及来源.结果表明,这些与人们生活密切的环境介质(旱地土,可吸入颗粒物)均受到了多种重金属元素的复合污染,其共同的污染元素有Cd、As、Sb、Pb、Xn、Cu,而其中致癌元素Cd和As污染最为突出.大气可吸入颗粒物与旱地土壤中各污染元素的污染强度排序相同,均为Cd＞As＞Sb＞Pb＞Zn＞Cu.经过现场调查和识别,污染源主要来自当地开放性运矿产生的扬尘所致.因此加强该地区矿石运输管理是保护该地区耕地和人群健康的需要.     

论科技风险与减灾

本文提出了科技风险的新概念,分析了科技风险的特征、破坏性、成因等,提出了科技风险与科技事故的减灾对策。     

TEODORO ARDEMANS PIONEER WATER-SUPPLY ENGINEER OF SPAIN1

ABSTRACT: Teodoro Ardemans, first post-Renaissance water expert of Spain, recognized problems of ground-water contamination, influence of minerals on water quality, and mutual interference between closely spaced wells. He is also noted for his achievements in architecture and the writing of the first comprehensive building code for Madrid.     

平果岩溶型铝土矿区苔藓多样性及对金属污染的监测指示

以广西平果岩溶型铝土矿区苔藓为研究对象,采集苔藓样品140份。采用经典形态分类法,发现苔藓属于13科25属44种,其中藓类10科22属41种,苔类3科3属3种,其中丛藓科(Pottiaceae)石灰藓属(Hydrogonium)疣叶石灰藓(Hydrogonium gangeticum)为主要优势种。丰富度指数从大到小的样地依次为原矿区、矿区农田、矿石堆、开采区、香蕉地、浓缩池、废矿区,Shannon-Wiener指数从大到小的样地依次为原矿区、矿区农田、矿石堆、浓缩池、香蕉地、开采区、废矿区。利用ICP-OES测定了该矿区土壤和苔藓的Al、Fe、Mn、Mg和Cr质量比,其中土壤Al质量比从大到小的样地依次为废矿区、浓缩池、矿石堆、原矿区、开采区、矿区农田、香蕉地,苔藓Al质量比从大到小的样地依次为开采区、废矿区、浓缩池、矿石堆、原矿区、矿区农田、香蕉地。冗余分析(RDA)表明,细叶石灰藓(Hydrogonium gracilentum)、疣叶石灰藓(Hydrogonium gangeticum)和卷叶毛口藓(Trichostomum involutum)对Al有一定耐受作用;相关性分析表明,丰富度指数与ShannonWiener指数呈极显著正相关(p0.01),丰富度指数与苔藓Al质量比呈极显著负相关(p0.01),土壤Al与苔藓Al质量比、苔藓Al与苔藓Fe质量比呈显著正相关(p0.05)。研究表明,苔藓可作为该矿区金属污染的监测指示植物。     

建筑工程生产事故死亡人数时间序列分析

为研究建筑工程安全生产事故死亡人数的变化规律,采用时间序列分析方法,分析了建筑安全事故死亡人数时间序列上的趋势性规律,通过数据预处理和模型的识别与检验,最终建立了安全事故死亡人数预测模型。对全国2005—2014年建筑工程安全生产事故造成的死亡人数进行了分析和预测。结果表明:ARIMA模型各年预测值与实际值误差率为0.393,相比灰色模型和BP神经网络模型误差率最小。总体上说,ARIMA模型较适用于随机性较大的数据的趋势预测。     

行为实验视角下煤矿员工不安全行为路径分析

面对煤矿事故频发现状,立足矿井安全实际生产困难,深入探索矿工不安全行为影响因素。研究表明,煤矿安全事故中,员工不安全行为是导致事故发生的主要原因。通过建立实验平台模拟煤矿员工工作现场,比较不同文化程度的矿工不安全行为发生率以及安全文化教育后矿工不安全行为发生率趋势。对比发现,文化程度越高的员工的不安全行为发生次数不一定越低,且安全文化教育的刺激作用具有保质期。     

Analysis of occupational accidents: prevention through the use of additional technical safety measures for machinery

This article presents an analysis of results of 1035 serious and 341 minor accidents recorded by Poland's National Labour Inspectorate (PIP) in 2005–2011, in view of their prevention by means of additional safety measures applied by machinery users. Since the analysis aimed at formulating principles for the application of technical safety measures, the analysed accidents should bear additional attributes: the type of machine operation, technical safety measures and the type of events causing injuries. The analysis proved that the executed tasks and injury-causing events were closely connected and there was a relation between casualty events and technical safety measures. In the case of tasks consisting of manual feeding and collecting materials, the injuries usually occur because of the rotating motion of tools or crushing due to a closing motion. Numerous accidents also happened in the course of supporting actions, like removing pollutants, correcting material position, cleaning, etc.     

Multibody model of the human upper extremity for fracture simulation

About 3.8 million people are injured in accidents at work in Europe every year. The resulting high costs are incurred by the victims themselves, their families, employers and society. We have used a numerical simulation to reconstruct accidents at work for several years. To reconstruct these accidents MADYMO R7.5 with a numerical human model (pedestrian model) is used. However, this model is dedicated to the analysis of car-to-pedestrian accidents and thus cannot be fully used for reconstructing accidents at work. Therefore, we started working on the development of a numerical model of the human body for the purpose of simulating accidents at work. Developing a new numerical model which gives an opportunity to simulate fractures of the upper extremity bones is a stage of that work.     

Analysis of car-to-bicycle approach patterns for developing active safety devices

Objective: To reduce the severity of injuries and the number of cyclist deaths in traffic accidents, active safety devices providing cyclist detection are considered to be effective countermeasures. The features of car-to-bicycle collisions need to be known in detail to develop such safety devices.

Methods: The study investigated near-miss situations captured by drive recorders installed in passenger cars. Because similarities in the approach patterns between near-miss incidents and real-world fatal cyclist accidents in Japan were confirmed, we analyzed the 229 near-miss incident data via video capturing bicycles crossing the road in front of forward-moving cars. Using a video frame captured by a drive recorder, the time to collision (TTC) was calculated from the car's velocity and the distance between the car and bicycle at the moment when the bicycle initially appeared.

Results: The average TTC in the cases where bicycles emerged from behind obstructions was shorter than that in the cases where drivers had unobstructed views of the bicycles. In comparing the TTC of car-to-bicycle near-miss incidents to the previously obtained results of car-to-pedestrian near-miss incidents, it was determined that the average TTC in car-to-bicycle near-miss incidents was significantly longer than that in car-to-pedestrian near-miss incidents.

Conclusions: When considering the TTC in the test protocol of evaluation for safety performance of active safety devices, we propose individual TTCs for evaluation of cyclist and pedestrian detections, respectively. In the test protocols, the following 2 scenarios should be employed: bicycle emerging from behind an unobstructed view and bicycle emerging from behind obstructions.     

Traffic accident reconstruction and an approach for prediction of fault rates using artificial neural networks: A case study in Turkey

Objective: Currently, in Turkey, fault rates in traffic accidents are determined according to the initiative of accident experts (no speed analyses of vehicles just considering accident type) and there are no specific quantitative instructions on fault rates related to procession of accidents which just represents the type of collision (side impact, head to head, rear end, etc.) in No. 2918 Turkish Highway Traffic Act (THTA 1983). The aim of this study is to introduce a scientific and systematic approach for determination of fault rates in most frequent property damage–only (PDO) traffic accidents in Turkey.

Methods: In this study, data (police reports, skid marks, deformation, crush depth, etc.) collected from the most frequent and controversial accident types (4 sample vehicle–vehicle scenarios) that consist of PDO were inserted into a reconstruction software called vCrash. Sample real-world scenarios were simulated on the software to generate different vehicle deformations that also correspond to energy-equivalent speed data just before the crash. These values were used to train a multilayer feedforward artificial neural network (MFANN), function fitting neural network (FITNET, a specialized version of MFANN), and generalized regression neural network (GRNN) models within 10-fold cross-validation to predict fault rates without using software. The performance of the artificial neural network (ANN) prediction models was evaluated using mean square error (MSE) and multiple correlation coefficient (R).

Results: It was shown that the MFANN model performed better for predicting fault rates (i.e., lower MSE and higher R) than FITNET and GRNN models for accident scenarios 1, 2, and 3, whereas FITNET performed the best for scenario 4. The FITNET model showed the second best results for prediction for the first 3 scenarios. Because there is no training phase in GRNN, the GRNN model produced results much faster than MFANN and FITNET models. However, the GRNN model had the worst prediction results. The R values for prediction of fault rates were close to 1 for all folds and scenarios.

Conclusions: This study focuses on exhibiting new aspects and scientific approaches for determining fault rates of involvement in most frequent PDO accidents occurring in Turkey by discussing some deficiencies in THTA and without regard to initiative and/or experience of experts. This study yields judicious decisions to be made especially on forensic investigations and events involving insurance companies. Referring to this approach, injury/fatal and/or pedestrian-related accidents may be analyzed as future work by developing new scientific models.