Estimation of Daily Streamflow of Southeastern Coastal Plain Watersheds by Combining Estimated Magnitude and Sequence

Commonly used methods to predict streamflow at ungauged watersheds implicitly predict streamflow magnitude and temporal sequence concurrently. An alternative approach that has not been fully explored is the conceptualization of streamflow as a composite of two separable components of magnitude and sequence, where each component is estimated separately and then combined. Magnitude is modeled using the flow duration curve (FDC), whereas sequence is modeled by transferring streamflow sequence of gauged watershed(s). This study tests the applicability of the approach on watersheds ranging in size from about 25‐7,226 km² in Southeastern Coastal Plain (U.S.) with substantial surface storage of wetlands. A 19‐point regionalized FDC is developed to estimate streamflow magnitude using the three most selected variables (drainage area, hydrologic soil index, and maximum 24‐h precipitation with a recurrence interval of 100 years) by a greedy‐heuristic search process. The results of validation on four watersheds (Trent River, North Carolina: 02092500; Satilla River, Georgia: 02226500; Black River, South Carolina: 02136000; and Coosawhatchie River, South Carolina: 02176500) yielded Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency values of 0.86‐0.98 for the predicted magnitude and 0.09‐0.84 for the predicted daily streamflow over a simulation period of 1960‐2010. The prediction accuracy of the method on two headwater watersheds at Santee Experimental Forest in coastal South Carolina was weak, but comparable to simulations by MIKE‐SHE.     

基于可靠性的弹药壳体分析设计

壳体的可靠性设计必须充分考虑各种随机变量.通过对弹药壳体从制造、贮存到使用各个环节进行分析研究,得出使壳体损坏的随机变量的散布特性,然后设计了记录随机变量的表格,提出了建立随机变量数据库的方法,最后利用可靠性数学方法对壳体进行可靠性设计.     

基于中美10所高校的应急管理核心知识体系的解释结构模型研究

应急管理涉及多学科、多领域,明确其核心知识体系可以为应急管理相关学科融合和发展提供基础。本文收集了中美两国10所高校15个本科专业225门专业课程,构建解释结构模型进行研究。结果显示：应急管理核心知识体系包括8大类：应急类、防灾减灾类、公共服务和社会管理类、安全生产类、国家安全类、法律类、公共卫生类和综合类。这8大类又分为18个小类,应急类包括为理论、技术方法和应用;防灾减灾类包括理论、过程和单灾种防范;公共服务和社会管理类包括理论与应用;安全生产类包括安全、健康和环境;国家安全类包括国土安全、恐怖主义和国际关系;公共卫生类包括心理和医疗救助;而法律类重在应急相关法律,综合类则表现为多个领域相结合。该体系的构建可以为应急管理相关学科研究提供知识基础,促进各学科领域在应急研究方面融合发展。     

洪湖沉积柱中重金属的历史分布特征及来源

为了解历史上洪湖重金属的含量水平及来源,于2014年12月在洪湖中心位置采集了沉积柱,分析了沉积柱中4种重金属（Cu、Cd、Zn、Pb）的含量,并结合¹³⁷Cs和²¹⁰Pb定年技术得到沉积物中重金属高分辨率年代沉积序列.结果表明：洪湖沉积柱中4种重金属总量介于67.86~189.57mg/kg之间,4种重金属含量的高低为Pb>Zn>Cu>Cd.地累计指数表明Cu和Zn未达到污染级别,而Pb为无污染到中度污染级别,Cd为中度污染到强污染级别.沉积物中重金属含量受洪水和围湖造田的共同影响,新滩水闸建成前,洪水会导致沉积物中重金属含量先降低,随后升高.水闸建成后,洪水会导致洪湖出现内涝致使沉积物中重金属含量升高;围湖造田导致沉积物中重金属含量升高.源解析研究表明,沉积物重金属来源于非点源农业污染、交通活动以及工业废水和生活废水排放.     

General and specific measures in organizational behavior research: Considerations,examples, and recommendations for researchers

Deliberation over and relative preference for general or specific (broad or narrow) constructs has long been an important issue in organizational behavior research. In this article, we provide a review of this general issue and some specific recommendations for researchers. We begin by discussing whether the general versus specific issue is an important debate and by discussing other underlying issues (the role of researcher preferences, distinction between reflective and formative indicators, and distinction between constructs and measures of constructs). Building on Chen's (this issue) analysis of core self‐evaluations, we first discuss how the general–specific debate has progressed in core self‐evaluations research. We then discuss three other important areas in which this debate has played out: intelligence, five‐factor model of personality, and job attitudes. Finally, we offer a framework to help guide decisions about whether to utilize general measures, specific measures, or both and conclude by providing recommendations for the use of general and specific measures in organizational behavior research. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Historical trends of trace metals in a sediment core from a contaminated tidal salt marsh in San Francisco Bay

Sedimentation of metals preserves historical records of contaminant input from local and regional sources, and measurement of metals in sediment cores can provide information for reconstruction of historical changes in regional water and sediment quality. Sediment core was collected from Stege Marsh located in central San Francisco Bay (California, USA) to investigate the historical input of trace metals. Aluminum-normalized enrichment factors indicate that inputs from anthropogenic sources were predominant over natural input for Ag, Cu, Pb, and Zn. Among these, lead was the most anthropogenically impacted metal with enrichment factors ranging from 32 to 108. Depth profiles and coefficients of variation show that As, Cd, and Se were also influenced by anthropogenic input. The levels of these anthropogenically impacted metals decline gradually towards the surface due to regulation of the use of leaded gasoline, municipal and industrial wastewater discharge control, and closure of point sources on the upland of Stege Marsh. Although trace metal contamination is expected to be continuously declining, the rates of decline have slowed down. For lead, it is estimated to take 44, 82, and 153 years to decrease to probable effects level (112 μg/g), the San Francisco Bay ambient surface sediment level (43.2 μg/g), and the local baseline levels (5 μg/g), respectively. Some metals in surface sediments (0–6 cm) are still higher than sediment quality guidelines such as the probable effects level. To further facilitate the recovery of sediment quality, more efficient management plans need to be developed and implemented to control trace metals from non-point sources such as stormwater runoff.     

厦门西港近岸沉积物重金属污染历史及源解析

分析厦门西港潮间带柱状沉积物中14种重金属元素(Sc、V、Cr、Co、Ni、Cu、Zn、Sr、Cd、Sb、Tl、Pb、Fe和Hg)的垂向分布特征、污染历史和污染来源.结果表明, 1795年之前,多数重金属元素含量变化趋势较平稳;1795~1849年间,Sc、Cr、Co、Ni、Cu、Sr、Cd、Tl、Pb和Hg含量有明显增加;2001~2011年间,Sc、Cr、Co、Sr、Tl、Pb和Hg含量又有增加趋势.多元统计分析结果表明,沉积柱中重金属元素主要有3大来源:交通和工业活动、自然源、工业和生活污水排放,贡献率分别是72.87%、12.20%和10.99%.柱状沉积物中铅同位素示踪分析表明,铅同位素组成从底层至表层由工业活动及污水排放逐步向机动车尾气排放漂移,厦门西港近岸海域中铅污染主要受交通和工业活动、工业和生活污水排放的影响.     

中国天山过去43年大气环境变化:来自冰芯草酸根记录的证据

中、低纬度地区山地冰川有机酸记录的研究是目前国际冰芯地球化学研究的前沿之一。中国天山乌鲁木齐河源一号冰川为一中纬度山地冰川。对其冰芯的草酸根含量的分析显示,其冰芯所记录的过去43 年草酸根变化的总体特征是在一个背景值基础上存在着含量的突变峰值。草酸根的背景值含量在1 ng/g左右,在部分冰芯段,其含量甚至低于测试分析的检测限;而大多数草酸根峰值的含量都达到或超过了10 ng/g。草酸根的平均含量为3.6 ±9.2 ng/g ( x±1σ, N=534),其中70%以上由峰值构成。50年代后期是草酸根的一个低值期,平均含量略高于本底值;至60-70年代达到最高值,平均含量为5.0ng/g;80年代草酸根平均含量又下降到接近50 年代后期的水平;至90年代回落到本底值附近。草酸根的主要来源是人类活动对大气所造成的污染。其过去43 年平均含量的变化大致与中国西部工业和环境保护事业的发展历程相一致,是西部区域大气污染变化的一种反应。     

好氧-厌氧两相堆肥过程中抗生素耐药基因的变化特征及影响因素研究

针对堆肥处理过程中抗生素耐药基因（antibiotic resistance genes,ARGs）去除效率不高、诱导潜在致病菌传播扩散等环境安全问题,采用好氧-厌氧两相堆肥处理猪粪、秸秆,探讨ARGs丰度及微生物群落的变化特征,并明确影响ARGs相对丰度变化的关键因子.结果表明:与单一好氧相比,好氧-厌氧两相堆肥能更有效地降低部分ARGs及潜在致病菌的相对丰度,其中ermB、tetK的相对丰度分别降低了39.68%、72.19%,假单胞菌属（Pseudomonas）、梭菌属（Clostridium_sensu_stricto_1）的相对丰度分别降低了96.09%、90.07%.主成分分析（Principal Component Analysis,PCA）及冗余分析（Redundancy analysis,RDA）得出,微生物群落和环境因子均显著影响ARGs相对丰度的变化（P < 0.05）,贡献率分别为82.0%、71.2%.其中,梭菌属（Clostridium_sense_stricto_1）、黄杆菌属（Flavobacterium）、尿素芽孢杆菌属（Ureibacillus）和海洋杆菌属（Oceanobacillus）是影响ARGs相对丰度变化的主要微生物菌属;温度、电导率、含水率和pH是影响ARGs相对丰度变化的关键环境因子,贡献率分别为22.0%、16.7%、16.2%和15.0%.研究显示:与好氧堆肥相比,好氧-厌氧两相堆肥能更有效地去除ARGs,并抑制潜在致病菌的繁殖扩散,从而减少环境风险;然而部分ARGs和潜在致病菌仍存在增殖现象,因此亟需进一步优化好氧-厌氧两相堆肥工艺.      

鄱阳湖三江口柱状沉积物有机氮同位素特征及其环境指示意义

通过对鄱阳湖三江口处柱状沉积物中δ15N、C/N比值、TOC和TN等含量的测定,分析了其有机质及氮素的来源.结果表明: 赣江、抚河、信江及鄱阳湖处柱状沉积物δ15N值变化范围分别为2.44‰~4.55‰、4.03‰~5.84‰、3.79‰~4.81‰及3.42‰~8.13‰.赣江南支其沉积有机质主要来源于土壤有机质;抚河整个柱状沉积物以自生有机物源为主;信江西支在12cm以下其沉积有机质主要受藻类及土壤有机质两种物源的影响,而12cm以上受外源影响比较小;鄱阳湖梅溪嘴表层2cm处沉积有机质来源以藻类为主,而中间6~3cm处主要来源于土壤有机质,7cm以下主要来源于藻类及土壤有机质.赣江南支、信江西支及鄱阳湖梅溪嘴沉积物氮素均主要来源人工合成肥料和土壤流失氮,而抚河主要来源于土壤流失氮.