Evaluating weather effects on interannual variation in net ecosystem productivity of a coastal temperate forest landscape: A model intercomparison

Forest productivity is strongly affected by seasonal weather patterns and by natural or anthropogenic disturbances. However weather effects on forest productivity are not currently represented in inventory-based models such as CBM-CFS3 used in national forest C accounting programs. To evaluate different approaches to modelling these effects, a model intercomparison was conducted among CBM-CFS3 and four process models (ecosys, CN-CLASS, Can-IBIS and 3PG) over a 2500 ha landscape in the Oyster River (OR) area of British Columbia, Canada. The process models used local weather data to simulate net primary productivity (NPP), net ecosystem productivity (NEP) and net biome productivity (NBP) from 1920 to 2005. Other inputs used by the process and inventory models were generated from soil, land cover and disturbance records. During a period of intense disturbance from 1928 to 1943, simulated NBP diverged considerably among the models. This divergence was attributed to differences among models in the sizes of detrital and humus C stocks in different soil layers to which a uniform set of soil C transformation coefficients was applied during disturbances. After the disturbance period, divergence in modelled NBP among models was much smaller, and attributed mainly to differences in simulated NPP caused by different approaches to modelling weather effects on productivity. In spite of these differences, age-detrended variation in annual NPP and NEP of closed canopy forest stands was negatively correlated with mean daily maximum air temperature during July-September (T_amax) in all process models (R² = 0.4-0.6), indicating that these correlations were robust. The negative correlation between T_amax and NEP was attributed to different processes in different models, which were tested by comparing CO₂ fluxes from these models with those measured by eddy covariance (EC) under contrasting air temperatures (T_a). The general agreement in sensitivity of annual NPP to T_amax among the process models led to the development of a generalized algorithm for weather effects on NPP of coastal temperate coniferous forests for use in inventory-based models such as CBM-CFS3: NPP′ = NPP − 57.1 (T_amax − 18.6), where NPP and NPP′ are the current and temperature-adjusted annual NPP estimates from the inventory-based model, 18.6 is the long-term mean daily maximum air temperature during July-September, and T_amax is the mean value for the current year. Our analysis indicated that the sensitivity of NPP to T_amax was nonlinear, so that this algorithm should not be extrapolated beyond the conditions of this study. However the process-based methodology to estimate weather effects on NPP and NEP developed in this study is widely applicable to other forest types and may be adopted for other inventory based forest carbon cycle models.     

我国中亚热带人工林水热通量对干旱差异响应的模拟研究

季节性干旱现象在我国中亚热带地区时有发生,为了研究该区域大气-生态系统之间的相互作用关系及其碳水收支状况,2002年起在江西省千烟洲（26.7°N,115.1°E）人工林生态系统建立了通量观测塔。2003年7月该人工林生态系统遭遇了历史上少有的高温少雨天气,本研究应用基于生理生态学过程的EALCO（Ecological Assimilation of Land and Climate Observation）模型及2003和2004年通量观测数据对该生态系统的水热通量进行了模拟,同时分析了干旱胁迫对它们产生的影响。结果显示,模型能够很好的模拟该生态系统的能量通量的日变化,净辐射、显热和潜热通量模拟值与实测值相关系数的平方（R2）及标准差分别为0.99和8.05 W.m-2;0.81和41.02 W.m-2;0.90和31.49 W.m-2,模型可以解释87%的日蒸散量的变化。从模拟结果看,2003年7月下旬（发生较严重干旱胁迫）较2004年同期（干旱程度轻）相比,冠层及土壤水势下降约2倍,植物蒸腾的日变化形式改变,根系吸水滞后冠层蒸腾的时间缩短约半小时,冠层导度下降40%～60%。模拟与观测结果均表明,2003年7月下旬每天正午的波文比大都介于1～2.2,而2004年同期正午的波文比则介于0.2～0.6。EALCO模型通过Ball模型将植物碳水过程耦合在一起,从而可以很好的模拟植物的气孔行为,进而准确的模拟植物水热过程对干旱的响应。土壤水分匮乏对冠层导度的限制是2003年干旱期间冠层潜热通量模拟值下降的根本原因。     

An Assessment of U.S. Stream Compensatory Mitigation Policy: Necessary Changes to Protect Ecosystem Functions and Services

Compensatory mitigation of impacted streams and wetlands has increased over the past two decades, with the associated industry spending over US$2.9 billion in aquatic restoration annually. Despite these expenditures, evaluations by the National Research Council and U.S. Government Accountability Office have provided evidence that compensatory mitigation practices are failing to protect aquatic resource functions and services, and vague federal policy and inadequate evaluation of compensatory mitigation projects are to blame. To address these weaknesses, an update to federal regulations on compensatory mitigation was released in 2008. Additionally, the 2012 Reissuance of Nationwide Permits, some of which affects compensatory stream mitigation, was recently published. Current policy, as reflected in these documents, still uses nonspecific language to direct compensatory stream mitigation leaving most implementation decisions to the local U.S. Army Corps of Engineers district. The majority of federal mitigation policy has focused on wetland compensation, with other aquatic resources receiving less attention (e.g., streams). In this article, weaknesses of current policy are discussed, as are suggested policy changes to minimize the loss of stream ecosystem functions and services. Compensatory mitigation policy should clearly define key terms, incorporate adaptive management procedures, and provide guidelines for determining mitigation costs and compensation ratio requirements.     

STATE LEGISLATIVE CONSTRAINTS ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATER RESOURCES POLICY1

ABSTRACT: Legislative constraints on the development of water resources policy fit into three broad categories-political, institutional, and informational. The political category encompasses constituency needs and preferences, satisfaction with existing water management practices and policies, and the necessity for legislators to blend political ambition with public problem solving. Constraints fitting into the institutional category include differences in legislative behavior and attitudes that stem from one's location in the legislature (e.g., senate-house, leader-follower, or committee activity), the dynamics of scheduling and organization, and the capability to manage complex issues. Informational constraints refer to the availability of information and the use to which it is put by lawmakers in formulating decisions on waterrelated issues. These constraints are approached from a behavioral perspective by examining several constituency, institutional, and information hypotheses that “explain” legislative involvement with water resources issues. The data are drawn from a recent study of water resources decision making in West Virginia. Eighty-three of the 134 members of the 1975–76 West Virginia Legislature participated in the study.     

ICP-AES测定南宁市大气颗粒物中重金属含量

采用石英滤纸和隔膜真空泵自制采样装置,对南宁市区的居民区、校园区、商业区和工业区进行连续10d的大气采样,所得样品经微波消解后,用电感耦合等离子体发射光谱法(ICP-AES)同时测定铬、铁、铜、锌、砷、镉和铅七种重金属元素含量以检测南宁市空气质量,同时考察了仪器工作参数对测定结果的影响。实验表明:在选定的实验条件下,各元素的检出限低,准确性和精密度良好。样品测定结果表明,大气环境中重金属污染物以Fe、Zn和Pb为主;工业区,商业区,居民区重金属含量高于校园区。重金属平均浓度最大值为:Cr(0.06027μg/m)3、Fe(1.8541μg/m)3、Cu(0.02214μg/m)3、Zn(0.3666μg/m)3、As(0.02272μg/m)3、Cd(0.004733μg/m)3、Pb(0.1843μg/m)3,低于我国(TJ36-96)《居住区大气中的有害物质最高容许量》中规定值,说明南宁市空气质量良好。     

地下水渗流沉降的三维耦合模型及程序的研制

研制可合理模拟预测基坑降水过程中引起地面沉降的计算机程序,并提出最优化降水方案.基于三维全耦合数值模型,笔者开发了GWS软件.GWS软件是以比奥固结理论为基础,将土体的非线性特征及土的渗透性随应力状态的动态变化考虑进去,通过耦合地下水渗流场和土体应力场进行模拟预测基坑降水过程中渗流场及地面沉降的变化.以一个实际基坑降水工程为例,经GWS软件计算得出5口井联合抽水方案,后续工程证明此方案正确、可靠.以三维全耦合数值理论为基础的GWS软件,可以为基坑降水工程引起的地下水渗流场变化及地面沉降量提供可靠的预测.     

近海泥沙输运与生态系统的耦合模拟研究进展

详细描述了泥沙输运过程的生态学概念,即悬浮泥沙和底沙动力过程对近海海洋生态系统的作用,包括泥沙的吸附解吸、沉降与再悬浮过程,底床营养物质释放、对光合作用的影响,以及对近岸海水富营养化和有害赤潮的影响;在近几年近岸海域泥沙输运过程及生态动力学模型研究基础上,回顾了泥沙输运过程与生态系统模型的研究现状。结合现阶段取得的主要研究成果,认为海洋生态系统动力学模型研究应考虑近海泥沙输运过程,定量研究泥沙动力过程的影响,并逐步构建包含泥沙动力模块的海洋生态动力学业务化模型体系。     

基于环境模式PM2.5的渤海及其西岸能见度预报技术优化研究

基于2019年12月1日—2020年11月30日渤海及其西岸地区能见度观测和数值模拟,研究了该区域海岸陆能见度演变特征及其预报方法,并通过引入PM_2.5浓度及建立相应的消光方程,提升该地区能见度预报准确率.结果表明：渤海及其西岸地区海岸陆能见度演变特征存在差异,就年平均能见度而言,海上（含港口）高于陆地,并且前者的能见度日变化较后者更趋平缓,低能见度（<3 km）天气陆地主要出现在0:00—8:00,海上（含港口）则全天均有可能出现,海上（含港口）0～500 m低能见度天气多于陆地,500～3000 m低能见度天气少于陆地.渤海及其西岸地区能见度预报需要考虑气溶胶消光的影响,欧洲数值模式（ECMWF）和天津气象台主观能见度预报产品,在该区域预报与实况的相关系数为0.2～0.3,相对误差为40%～50%.引入天津环境模式PM_2.5浓度预报,基于ECMWF相对湿度和环境模式液态水含量,通过消光方程可以较好地改进预报该区域能见度的效果,其产品陆地和港口能见度预报与实况的相关系数分别为在0.8和0.5以上,相对误差分别为20%和40%左右,小于...     

考虑优先权的人群安全疏散动态模型

为制定合理、高效的应急状况下建筑物内人群疏散方案,考虑拥堵对人流速度的影响及疏散中不同人员特点,对建筑物内人群疏散动态实时分配问题进行研究。首先,采用元胞传输理论将建筑物内复杂的结构转化为元胞—连接桥路网模型,进而以最短疏散时间为目标函数、元胞流量守恒和流量传播为约束条件建立线性优化模型。通过对模型的求解可以得到不同优先级人员的网络清空时间、各路段实时人员数量及路径选择最优方案。案例分析结果表明,疏散过程中人员的优先级差异以及拥堵的发生均会影响不同人员的网络清空时间,因此,针对建筑物内人群疏散进行建模时,应考虑以上因素。     

系统动力学模型在城市发展规划环评中的应用

鉴于作为评价对象的城市社会经济环境复合系统具有多目标、多要素、动态关联等突出的系统动力学特征,选择和应用系统动力学方法开展城市发展规划环评在理论上具有可行性和技术优势.作为典型资源型城市的山西省临汾市正面临转变发展方式和加快环境治理的紧迫要求,本文依托该市转型发展规划环评工作,在全面识别和剖析城市发展要素、现状问题及其成因基础上,以经济发展、产业结构、节能减排和环境改善为重点研究了规划要素间的动态反馈关系,以此构建城市转型发展规划环评SD模型,并对4个规划替代方案进行模拟和评价.结果显示,在环境目标刚性约束下所有替代方案均不能实现人均GDP翻番的较高经济增长目标,其中以较强环境约束为特征的“方案III”具有最好的环境与经济综合效果.据此评价建议临汾市应在确保实现环境改善目标的前提下主动放缓工业增长速度,同时加快以“煤焦铁电”为代表的主导产业结构调整并继续加大节能减排力度,全面提高城市可持续发展能力.