润湿时间统计方法研究

根据日记相对湿度曲线，本文采用了五种方法统计江津地区1998年逐月的润湿时间；五种方法的区别主要在于：(1)相邻两点时间间隔不同，方法2、方法3相邻两点间隔1h，方法4、方法5相邻两点间隔6h；(2)若相邻两点的相对湿度值一个高于80％，另一个低于80％时，则采用了三种不同的方法计算从低点到高点相对湿度低于80％的时间，方法1直接从曲线读取，方法2、方法4则从相邻两点的相对湿度值计算获得，方法3、方法4则取相邻两点间隔时间的一半。方差分析表明五种方法之间没有显著差异，可直接利用国家气象局发布的全年每天2、8、14、20点的相对湿度来统计润湿时间。     

基于三角条块法的土体主、被动临界滑动场及土压力的计算

提出基于三角条块法的土体主、被动临界滑动场的数值模拟方法,并得到相应的土压力分布。首先,将土体划分为若干三角条块,引入带参数的条间力函数,建立土体极限平衡方程;然后,由最优控制理论得到一系列互不相交的临界滑动面,选定通过墙脚的临界滑动面,根据平衡方程求解格式,不断调整条间力函数中的参数,使土体满足力与力矩的平衡;最后,利用有限差分法,由墙面上各离散点的临界推力计算墙面上的土压力分布。数值计算结果表明,此方法适应性强,可计算任意倾斜角度的填土和墙体,且精度高、与现有解析解一致,可用于工程计算。     

治霾背景下浅层地温能产业规模化发展研究

为了实现治霾目标,国家大力推广可再生能源应用,《关于促进地热能开发利用的指导意见》(国能新能[2013]48号),明确提出将积极推广浅层地温能,扩大其在城镇建筑用能中的比例。我国浅层地温能产业发展面临一系列障碍,为了克服市场调节失灵问题,借助事物发展动力原则,结合全寿命周期理论,依托层次分析法,推导能源发展的核心影响因素,据此提出了浅层地温能产业规模化发展的关键路径,构建了浅层地温能开发利用的长效管理体系。     

电子垃圾拆解场多环境介质 多氯联苯(PCBs)污染特征及风险评估

多氯联苯(polychlorinated biphenyls,PCBs)是一组氯代烃类化合物,有较强的生物毒性效应。研究通过采集中国某典型电子垃圾拆解区手工拆解场和焚烧场不同环境介质(大气、土壤、饮用水、食物等)分析15种PCBs同系物的污染水平。利用主成分/因子分析方法分析不同拆解场PCBs的来源。根据世界卫生组织(WHO)推荐的毒性当量因子(TEFs)方法评价了两个拆解场环境介质中8种PCBs同系物的毒性。结果显示研究区大气、土壤、饮用水、农作物和农产品样品中PCBs同系物浓度均高于国际已有报道的同种介质中的PCBs污染水平,其中PCB-047和PCB-171污染最为严重。手工拆解场各介质PCBs同系物中PCB-047、PCB-171所占比例为2%~87%;焚烧场各介质PCBs同系物中PCB-047、PCB-171所占比例为2%~90%;来源分析表明除手工拆解场PCB-126和焚烧场PCB-114外,其余PCBs的来源具有相似性;毒性当量(TEQ)评价结果显示区内大气∑TEQ PCBs最高。环境介质中除红薯干外,∑TEQ PCBs均是焚烧场高于手工拆解场,且TEQ PCB-126和TEQ PCB-169的毒性当量最高。     

Background metal levels determination in bivalves – quality assessment of the European Water Framework Directive

Background levels of metals (Ag, Cd, Cu, Cr, Hg, Ni, Pb and Zn) in biomonitors (Mytilus galloprovincialis mussels and Crassostrea gigas oysters), in estuarine waters within the Basque Country (south-east Bay of Biscay) are estimated using non-parametric statistical tools and data are presented graphically, with the aim of being used in assessing the ecological status, within the European Water Framework Directive (WFD). The basis for this study was the statistical analysis of data compiled from monitoring programmes undertaken along the Basque coast, between 1990 and 2008. For this analysis, a heuristic method was adapted and used. Results showed different metal background ranges throughout the year for both mussels and oysters. Values corresponding to the upper limit of the background range (i.e. value of the upper whisker of the box-plot) are proposed as the ‘high/good’ status boundary, according to the WFD.     

Acoustically detected year-round presence of right whales in an urbanized migration corridor

Species' conservation relies on understanding their seasonal habitats and migration routes. North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis), listed as endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, migrate from the southeastern U.S. coast to Cape Cod Bay, Massachusetts, a federally designated critical habitat, from February through May to feed. The whales then continue north across the Gulf of Maine to northern waters (e.g., Bay of Fundy). To enter Cape Cod Bay, right whales must traverse an area of dense shipping and fishing activity in Massachusetts Bay, where there are no mandatory regulations for the protection of right whales or management of their habitat. We used passive acoustic recordings of right whales collected in Massachusetts Bay from May 2007 through October 2010 to determine the annual spatial and temporal distribution of the whales and their calling activity. We detected right whales in the bay throughout the year, in contrast to results from visual surveys. Right whales were detected on at least 24% of days in each month, with the exception of June 2007, in which there were no detections. Averaged over all years, right whale calls were most abundant from February through May. During this period, calls were most frequent between 17:00 and 20:00 local time; no diel pattern was apparent in other months. The spatial distribution of the approximate locations of calling whales suggests they may use Massachusetts Bay as a conduit to Cape Cod Bay in the spring and as they move between the Gulf of Maine and waters to the south in September through December. Although it is unclear how dependent right whales are on the bay, the discovery of their widespread presence in Massachusetts Bay throughout the year suggests this region may need to be managed to reduce the probability of collisions with ships and entanglement in fishing gear.     

基于GA-ELM浆体管道输送临界流速预测模型研究

针对浆体管道输送临界流速预测难度大、精确度低等技术难题,提出了基于极限学习机(ELM)的临界流速预测模型,用训练集对模型进行训练,以验证集预测值的均方误差作为适应度函数,利用遗传算法(GA)对ELM模型参数进行优化,应用优化得到的ELM模型对预测集进行预测。以某矿山为例,模型参数优化结果如下:隐含层节点数L为400,输入权值ai、偏置向量bi最优组合下预测结果适应度为0.0201。采用优化的ELM模型对预测集进行预测,预测结果的最大相对误差x=3.96%,平均相对误差y=1.58%,对比BP神经网络(x=12.95%)和SVM模型(x=3.19%),表明ELM模型更加精确、高效。     

软、硬煤层残余瓦斯含量区域效果检验临界值研究

针对软、硬煤层瓦斯含量区域突出危险性效检指标临界值存在较大差异这一工程实际。建立软、硬煤样相关参数关系模型,对基于残余瓦斯含量的区域防突措施效果检验指标临界值进行研究。结果表明:同一煤质软煤和硬煤瓦斯吸附量差别不大,但随着煤的变质程度降低,软、硬煤瓦斯吸附量差值先减小后增大。对存在软、硬分层的煤层,建议采用0.74MPa时软、硬煤瓦斯含量测值的小值（取整）作为煤层残余瓦斯量指标的临界值。此研究因地制宜地确定符合矿井实际的突出预测指标临界值和区域措施效果检验指标临界值,对降低防突成本具有重要意义。     

基于监测及Kriging方法的京津冀地区大气污染物暴露分布研究

为了实现充分利用已有环境监测站点数据进行人群精细化暴露评估的目的,同时解决某些待测人群社区周边无监测站点时数据的选择问题,以保定市作为大气高污染研究城市,基于现场监测和Kriging（克里金插值）空间分析方法,明确了在研究大气污染物人群暴露时,某一个固定监测站污染物数据的代表性问题.研究表明:对于大气中φ（SO₂）、φ（NO₂）、颗粒物及其组分,空气质量监测点位的代表性一般为5~6 km;对于φ（CO）、φ（O₃）和φ（VOCs）,它们在城市不同地区的空间分布更为均匀,空气质量监测点位的代表性范围更大.通过使用Radial Basis Functions（径向基函数,RBF）、Local Polynomial Interpolation（局部多项式插值,LPI）、Inverse Distance Weighting（反距离权重插值,IDW）、Kriging、Kernel Smoothing（内核平滑插值,KS）和Diffusion Kernel（内核扩散插值,DK）等6种空间分析方法对大气污染物浓度进行预测发现,Kriging方法对大气污染物浓度预测时可使预测值和实测值间的偏差小于10%,准确度最高.因此,在进行某城市某点位的污染物人群暴露浓度预测时,若该点位周边5 km以内有空气质量监测点位,则可用该点位的监测值代替;若5 km以内没有空气质量监测点位,则可基于最近监测点位的污染物浓度进行Kriging空间插值,从而获得该点位的污染物暴露水平.