基于系统动力学的区域耕地压力指数研究

论文采用系统动力学的研究方法,运用Vensim软件建立区域耕地压力系统动力学模型,通过仿真技术预测湖北省2000—2020年耕地面积、粮食产量、耕地缺口、耕地压力指数等的变化趋势,并通过设置4种不同情景,模拟仿真湖北省耕地压力指数的变化。得出:①在粮食单产、科技水平受限,总人口、人均粮食消费量不断上升的状态下,湖北省的耕地缺口在未来一段时间将不断加大,耕地压力指数不断增高,耕地安全受到严重威胁;②合理调整耕地保护政策对耕地安全具有积极意义,确保每年耕地增加幅度保持在10%以上、耕地减少幅度控制在10%以内,才能保证湖北省的耕地在未来20 a内保持在安全状态。     

华北平原典型区土壤氟的形态及其分布特征

为了研究华北平原典型区小麦-玉米农田土壤氟的形态及其分布特征,采用连续化学提取方法,测定了采自该地区的耕作层土壤样品(0～30 cm)和剖面土壤样品氟含量.结果表明,研究区耕作层土壤总氟含量为338.31～781.67 mg·kg-1,平均含量为430.46 mg·kg-1.耕作层土壤中不同形态氟含量以残余态最高,其平均含量为402.73 mg·kg-1;其次为水溶态,平均含量为14.39 mg·kg-1,处于氟污染较高水平,可能会对人体健康和生态环境产生重要影响;再次为有机态和铁锰结合态,其平均含量分别为8.90 mg·kg-1和4.10 mg·kg-1;可交换态含量最低,其平均含量为0.33 mg·kg-1.耕作层土壤中水溶态氟含量与土壤pH、CEC呈正相关,与土壤黏粒含量呈负相关;铁锰结合态氟含量与土壤pH、CEC、土壤砂粒含量呈正相关,与黏粒含量呈负相关.逐步回归分析结果表明,土壤pH值对土壤水溶态氟和铁锰结合态氟含量影响最显著,土壤CEC对土壤总氟和残余态氟含量影响最为显著.土壤剖面总氟含量受土壤岩性变化控制,在包气带中呈现峰谷交替的变化特征;土壤剖面水溶态氟含量受土壤岩性变化较小,受土壤pH影响较大,各土壤剖面水溶态氟含量与土壤pH呈显著正相关,主要在靠近地表0～100 cm处变化.本研究可为该区域土壤氟污染防治提供科学依据,也为土壤氟的迁移转化、土壤氟对生态和环境的影响研究奠定了理论基础.     

典型农区耕作土壤重金属空间变异的稳健性分析

以鲁西北典型农区禹城的耕作土壤重金属Cr、Pb含量为例,针对其偏态分布特点与变异函数的非稳健性,研究了克瑞西-豪金斯法(C-H)、中位调节法(MA)、中位数中位偏差法(MMD)和位置的Huber估计(HB)4种稳健统计方法对土壤重金属变异函数的稳健处理效果,交叉检验了各稳健处理变异函数模型用以克里格估值的精度,分析了该地区耕作土壤重金属的空间分布特征。结果表明:研究区土壤Cr、Pb含量变异性较强且其频数分布均呈强烈偏态特征;稳健处理使得变异函数的块金值、基台值总体降低,块金值/基台值和拟合精度均不同程度升高;C-H法和MMD法稳健处理下,土壤Cr、Pb含量克里格空间预测的精度最高,是较优的稳健处理方式;研究区土壤Cr、Pb含量的空间分布呈现局部斑块状的分布格局,目前耕地土壤环境质量良好。该研究结果为该地区耕地环境质量评价和重金属污染防控提供科学依据。     

环境因子对香溪河库湾淹没土壤磷释放的影响

三峡工程建成后大量的耕地良田被淹没,淹没土壤对水体环境的影响问题受到各方关注,该研究针对不同利用类型的土壤进行磷释放研究,评价淹没土壤的营养释放对三峡支流水体富营养化进程的影响。采集香溪河库湾的3种不同利用类型的土壤,通过静态淹水模拟实验,研究3种土壤的磷释放特点,结果表明:施肥次数多且土质松软的菜地土对上覆水TP含量影响最大,柑橘园土其次。菜地土的磷释放量为柑橘园土的1.7倍。林地土其自身磷含量较小,上覆水无明显影响。TP累积释放量为:不同pH下,TP累积释放量之间的大致关系为:pH=11.02时,TP累积释放量最大,为4.710 mg/kg;pH=3.98时次之,为3.645 mg/kg;pH=7.01时最小,为2.235 mg/kg。水温的升高能够有效加速受淹土壤内源磷的释放,在30℃条件下,土壤的TP最大释放量分别约为10℃,20℃时的1.7倍、4.2倍。因此冬季淹没土壤的释放对水体TP的影响较小;而夏季库区水温升高,引起淹没土壤磷的释放。     

龙塘镇电子垃圾拆解区土壤和河流底泥重金属赋存形态及生态风险

龙塘镇是珠三角电子垃圾拆解区之一,采用AAS方法对该地土壤和河流底泥沉积物中5种重金属(Cd、Cr、Cu、Zn和Pb)含量进行测定分析,结果显示周围农田土壤中Cd含量是《国家土壤质量标准》二级标准的3倍左右,是广东省土壤背景值的20倍左右;拆解区土壤Cd超标最为严重,最高达5.67倍,超过广东省土壤背景值达36.17倍;拆解区下游0—1500 m河流底泥中Cd、Cr、Cu、Zn和Pb含量大幅增加且部分金属超标,Cd在0—40 cm深度内含量总体逐渐降低,仍远超背景值,Cu含量采样深度内递减规律最显著且在0—10 cm内含量超标,Cr、Zn和Pb除部分点位在表层积累较多外,其余与背景值相差不大且未超标.采用BCR(the Community Bureau of Reference)法提取重金属不同形态可知,底泥中Cd主要以弱酸溶态和可还原态为主,Cu主要以可氧化态存在,Cr主要以残渣态存在,而Zn和Pb则以可还原态为主;其中Cd的可提取态比例较高(60%),容易释放出来形成"二次污染".潜在生态风险结果表明,河流底泥中Cd生态危害程度属于极强(Ei320);其他金属Cr、Cu、Zn和Pb危害风险程度属于轻微(Ei40);金属Cd对整个RI值贡献最大(88%),应重点加强对Cd污染的防控.     

镉铜污染尾矿土中添加耐镉铜菌剂J5后微生物区系多样性的变化

采用酶解法和化学裂解法相结合的方法从安徽铜陵镉铜污染尾矿土中提取出土壤微生物基因组总DNA,并应用PCR-DGGE技术对比研究尾矿土中添加外源硫酸镉、硫酸铜和耐镉铜菌剂J5(Pseudomonassp.)后微生物区系多样性的变化.结果表明,尾矿土中微生物基因组总DNA分子量大小为21kb左右,未复垦的尾矿砂中微生物总DNA量较少,CdSO4处理后的尾矿土中微生物基因组总DNA量明显下降,而添加菌剂J5的尾矿土中微生物基因组总DNA量上升.DGGE电泳图谱进一步显示,尾矿土样中添加镉离子使图谱条带减少,分析表明尾矿土中的细菌种类数减少;而添加菌剂J5使图谱中条带明显增加,表明菌剂J5可提高尾矿土中土著微生物的活性和群落丰富度,可用于复合重金属污染尾矿区的生态恢复.     

Temporal and spatial patterns and driving factors of cultivated land change in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau北大核心CSCD

随着经济快速发展、城镇化进程加快以及人口基数不断增加,在城市用地不断向外扩张以及生态退耕措施的影响下,耕地面积呈逐年减小的趋势.这一现象加剧了农业发展与其他要素间的矛盾,对区域粮食安全也产生重要影响,因此,探讨耕地面积时空变化及其驱动机制对保障区域粮食安全具有现实意义.分析青藏高原地区1980年、1990年、2000年、2010年、2018年的耕地面积数据,结合户籍人口、地区生产总值(GDP)、粮食单产等统计年鉴资料解析影响其变化的主要驱动因子.结果表明:(1)青藏高原近40年耕地面积变化总体经历缓慢增加、显著增加和缓慢递减3个阶段,整个变化过程中耕地主要流失方向为林地和草地,分别占总流失面积的50.99%和32.02%,主要原因为退耕还林还草等政策的实施,其次为建设用地和水域增加.(2)耕地转为非耕地的地区主要集中在四川西部、云南西北部、青海东部,而耕地转入地区主要集中在青藏高原中部.以地市州来看,拉萨、海东、海西、阿坝、林芝等地区耕地面积变化特征以缓慢递增为主;西宁、黄南、甘孜、甘南等地区的耕地面积则呈缓慢递减的变化趋势.(3)主成分分析和结构方程模型结果显示影响耕地面积减少的主要驱动因素包括经济社会发展和粮食生产.其中经济和社会因素对耕地面积变化产生的影响为负值,社会因素产生的负影响最大,为-0.224,人口基数增长、建设用地扩张、土地利用转型要求以及二、三产业红利的吸引都会导致耕地面积减小.本研究揭示了青藏高原地区近40年耕地变化情况及流失方向,耕地面积波动主要受到经济社会因素以及政策因素的影响;上述结果可为今后国家粮食安全及当地生态环境可持续发展提供理论参考.(图7表8参45)     

Urban Metal Flows – A Case Study of Stockholm. Review and Conclusions

Metals have rapidly accumulated in the anthroposphere, especiallyin urban areas, indicating possible environmental and resource problems. Here, Stockholm City was chosen for a case study of urban metal flows, i.e. metal inflow to, metals in the stock of,and metal outflow from the anthroposphere to the biosphere. Themetal stock of Stockholm is large and still growing. The large amounts of metals in the solid waste fraction totally dominatethe outflow from the city. For major parts of the stock, the emissions from goods in use are negligible. There are, however,goods applications corresponding to significant emissions: e.g. the traffic sector (Cu, Zn, Cr, Ni, Pb), the tapwater system (Cu), roofs/fronts or other metal surfaces (Cu, Zn). Today's known metal flows from the anthroposphere of Stockholm to the biosphere and sewage sludge are quantitatively dominated by Zn(34 ton y^-1) and Cu (14 ton y^-1). Historical and present emissions have resulted in high metal concentrations insediments (especially Cd, Hg and Pb, but also Cu and Zn), groundwater (Cu, Hg) and in soils (Hg, Cu, Pb). At present theannual median concentrations are below the Swedish limits for metals in sewage sludge, even if the safety margins aresmall for Cd, Hg and to some extent Cu. The flows of Cu and Zn to Stockholm soils are high with a significant accumulationindicating an environmental impact in a longer time perspective.High levels of metals in surface sediments in the waterenvironments reflects an ongoing input where these metals aretransported from known (Cu, Zn) and or partly unknown (Cd, Hg, Pb) sources. In future urban areas, monitoring of metal flows must be performed both in the anthroposphere and the biospherein order to have a pro active approach to urban environmentalproblems and to get prompt answers to measures taken.     

Critical Loads of Acidity for Forest Soils: Tentative Modifications

We reviewed the current methods for calculatingcritical loads of acidity for forest soils. The consequencesof four sets of assumptions concerning the soil modelstructure, parameter values and the critical loads criterionwere explored by comparing the values of the averageaccumulated exceedance (AAE) calculated for Finland withdeposition values for the year 1995. The AAE index is given inthe unit of deposition and is a measure of how far a region isfrom being protected in terms of fulfilling a certaincriterion, taking into account the size of the ecosystem areas.Using a critical limit for the molar ratio of theconcentrations of base cations to aluminium in soil solutiongave the lowest average accumulated exceedance. Assumingorgano-aluminium complexes and leaching of organic anions gaveAAE = 4 eq ha^-1 a^-1, which was close to the valueobtained with the standard approach used in Finland, assuminggibbsite equilibrium and no leaching of organic anions,yielding AAE = 5 eq ha^-1 a^-1. With a critical basesaturation limit, instead of the concentrations criterion, theAAE index was 17 eq ha^-1 a^-1. The highest averageaccumulated exceedance (AAE = 25 eq ha^-1 a^-1),corresponding to the lowest critical load, was obtained whenthe effects-based criterion (critical concentration or criticalbase saturation) was substituted with one restricting thedeterioration of the neutralizing capacity of the soil, ANC _le(crit) = 0. These tests illustrate the variabilityof the critical load values for acidity that can be introducedby changing the criterion or by varying the calculation method,without, however, representing the extreme values of criticalloads that could be derived.     

Impact of Harvest Intensity on Long-Term Base Cation Budgets in Swedish Forest Soils

The effects of harvesting on the long-term mass balances of calcium (Ca), magnesium (Mg) and potassium (K) were evaluated on a regional level in Sweden. A new high-resolution weathering database was used together with estimates of total deposition, losses through harvest and leaching. Estimates were made for pine and spruce separately and for two harvesting intensity scenarios: stem harvesting and whole-tree harvesting. The mass balance calculations showed net losses of Ca and Mg in almost the whole country for both scenarios. The losses were smaller for pine than for spruce. The K balances were mainly positive for pine but negative for spruce. Leaching was a main factor in the mass balances, especially for Ca and Mg. Whole-tree harvesting in spruce forests led to substantially higher net losses of K and Ca than stem harvesting, according to the calculations. In the whole-tree harvesting scenario in spruce forests the estimated yearly net losses of Ca, Mg and K corresponded to at least 5%, 8% and 3% of the pools of exchangeable base cations, respectively, at 25% of the analysed sites. If losses of this magnitude continue the depletion of the pools of Ca, Mg and K may lead to very low base saturation of the soils, possibly accompanied by negative effects on soil fertility, runoff water quality, tree vitality and tree growth within a forest rotation in parts of Sweden. Avoiding whole-tree harvesting can improve the situation substantially for K, but the losses of Ca and Mg will still be significant.