Modelling the elements of country vulnerability to earthquake disasters

Earthquakes have probably been the most deadly form of natural disaster in the past century. Diversity of earthquake specifications in terms of magnitude, intensity and frequency at the semi-continental scale has initiated various kinds of disasters at a regional scale. Additionally, diverse characteristics of countries in terms of population size, disaster preparedness, economic strength and building construction development often causes an earthquake of a certain characteristic to have different impacts on the affected region. This research focuses on the appropriate criteria for identifying the severity of major earthquake disasters based on some key observed symptoms. Accordingly, the article presents a methodology for identification and relative quantification of severity of earthquake disasters. This has led to an earthquake disaster vulnerability model at the country scale. Data analysis based on this model suggested a quantitative, comparative and meaning full interpretation of the vulnerability of concerned countries, and successfully explained which countries are more vulnerable to major disasters.     

桥梁结构健康监测的数据融合框架

大型桥梁结构健康监测系统需要安装大量各种类型的传感器,如何有效利用这些实时采集的信息以保障桥梁的连续安全运营是一个核心课题,而数据融合技术是解决这一问题的一个新方向。本文对近几十年来数据融合技术的发展做了全面综述,介绍了常用的数据融合模型,评析了各种常用融合算法。基于对健康监测系统的细致分析,在前人工作基础上,提出了桥梁结构健康监测的数据融合框架,对框架内的各个功能模块进行了功能定位,并给出了相应阶段适宜的融合算法。     

Development and Application of Software Tools for Monitoring, Assessment and Reporting of Data Concerning the Operation of Urban Wastewater Treatment Plants in Cyprus

This work focuses on the development and application of appropriate software tools for recording, assessing and reporting data related to the operation of the Urban Wastewater Treatment Plants (UWTPs) in Cyprus. An appropriate Internet-Based Management System was designed, developed and installed at the premises of the UWTPs and of the Cypriot Competent Authority (Water Development Department — WDD) in order to coordinate and disseminate tasks and related information for monitoring the operation of UWTPs. In addition, a client Geographical Information System database was compiled to be used for obtaining and analyzing spatial information. The software tools are based on common procedures and state-of-the-art technology for the recording and transmission of data and information and they provide an integrated view related to the operation and the efficiency of wastewater treatment systems. Moreover, continuous control and systematic monitoring of the UWTPs by the operators as well as continuous and direct supervision of the UWTPs environmental performance is achieved by the personnel of the Competent Authority. Furthermore, direct and unobstructed provision of data to the Competent Authority of Cyprus is accomplished by the operators of the UWTPs, while the Competent Authority is supported to compose full and representative reports to the European Commission and other International Organizations. The developed tools enable the direct recording of data obtained through measurements and analyses, permit the comparison of data with existing legislation and provide an integrated picture of the operation of the wastewater treatment plants as well as the option to focus and assess each individual treatment stage.     

When are historical data sufficient for making watershed-level stream fish management and conservation decisions?

Addressing landscape-level threats to stream fishes such as habitat and hydrological alterations requires adequate watershed-level species inventories. Where watershed-level ichthyofaunal surveys are prohibitively expensive, existing (historical) data sources may provide an option for compiling species lists. However, it is critical that managers consider potential biases or limitations of species lists compiled from existing data. Here we assess the suitability of species lists compiled from existing data sources for making watershed-level fish management and conservation decisions. For nine Great Lakes watersheds, we developed existing species lists by compiling all available federal and state agency and museum fish survey data. We then compared the size and species composition of existing species lists to current species lists compiled from intensive field surveys, conducted in 2002, of the same watersheds. Species lists compiled from commonly available existing data sources, such as state and federal agency and museum data, missed many species detected during our 2002 field surveys. In most watersheds, more than 10 species were missed (range 5–21) on existing lists. Sampling over multiple years and seasons increased the size of both current (field) and existing species lists. Existing species lists compiled from surveys conducted over multiple years and seasons included an average of 15 species not captured during the 2002 field surveys. However, such multiyear existing datasets are rare and not available for many watersheds. In addition, species lists compiled from older existing surveys (e.g., before 1984) did not accurately represent current species composition of the watersheds and our results indicate several apparent misidentifications or errors on these lists. Lastly, while most game species were detected on existing lists, migratory species and recently introduced species were commonly missed on these lists. We conclude with recommendations for using existing data for watershed-level stream fish management and conservation decisions.     

工资发放管理系统

Foxpro是一种方便的图形化数据库开发语言。笔者利用它编写了一个简单实用的工资发放管理系统软件。本文从该软件的设计思想、实施方法、难点分析、使用效果等几个方面介绍和论述。     

Litter-based methods in developmental toxicity risk assessment

Developmental toxicity experiments are designed to assess potential adverse effects of drugs and other exposures on developing fetuses from pregnant dams. Extrapolation to humans is a very difficult problem. An important issue here is whether risk assessment should be based on the fetus or the litter level. In this paper, fetus and litter-based risks that properly account for cluster size are defined and compared for the beta-binomial model and a conditional model for clustered binary data. It is shown how the hierarchical structure of non-viable implants and viable but malformed offspring can be incorporated. Risks based on a joint model for death/resorption and malformation are contrasted with risks based on an adverse event defined as either death/resorption or malformation. The estimation of safe exposure levels for all risk types is discussed and it is shown how estimation of the cluster size distribution affects variance estimation. The methods are applied to data collected under the National Toxicology Program and in large sample simulations.     

Modeling and risk assessment for soil temperatures beneath prescribed forest fires

Prescribed fire is a management tool used by wildland resource management organizations in many ecosystems to reduce hazardous fuels and to achieve a host of other objectives. To study the effects of fire in naturally accumulating fuel conditions, the ambient soil temperature is monitored beneath prescribed burns. In this study we developed a stochastic model for temperature profiles (values at 15 minute intervals) recorded at four depths beneath the soil during a large prescribed burn study. The model was used to assess the temporal fit of the data to particular solutions of the heat equation. We used a random effects model to assess the effects of observed site characteristics on maximum temperatures and to estimate risks of temperatures exceeding critical levels in future similar prescribed fires. Contour plots of estimated risks of temperatures exceeding 60°C for a range of fuel levels and soil depths indicated high risks of occurrence, especially when the moisture levels are low. However, the natural variability among sites seems to be large, even after controlling fuel and moisture levels, resulting in large standard errors of predicted risks.     

浅议环境监测数据的审核

环境监测数据的审核工作是整个质量保证体系中最后有效的质量控制手段。针对我国环境监测数据审核现状与存在的问题,将"五性"质量指标贯穿于整个环境监测工作当中,是提升监测数据的审核力度,保证监测数据正确、可靠的有力措施之一。     

地表水自动监测网数据自动审核的创新与实践

在地表水质量自动监测网络的质量保证管理中,山东省省、市两级监控中心使用计算机数据审核系统对监测数据进行实时监控和质量控制,创新地实现了对监测数据有效性的自动判别、监测网的运行情况自动评价等自动化质控措施。     

Integrating drivers influencing the detection of plant pests carried in the international cut flower trade

This paper analyses the cut flower market as an example of an invasion pathway along which species of non-indigenous plant pests can travel to reach new areas. The paper examines the probability of pest detection by assessing information on pest detection and detection effort associated with the import of cut flowers. We test the link between the probability of plant pest arrivals, as a precursor to potential invasion, and volume of traded flowers using count data regression models. The analysis is applied to the UK import of specific genera of cut flowers from Kenya between 1996 and 2004.There is a link between pest detection and the Genus of cut flower imported. Hence, pest detection efforts should focus on identifying and targeting those imported plants with a high risk of carrying pest species. For most of the plants studied, efforts allocated to inspection have a significant influence on the probability of pest detection. However, by better targeting inspection efforts, it is shown that plant inspection effort could be reduced without increasing the risk of pest entry. Similarly, for most of the plants analysed, an increase in volume traded will not necessarily lead to an increase in the number of pests entering the UK. For some species, such as Carthamus and Veronica, the volume of flowers traded has a significant and positive impact on the likelihood of pest detection. We conclude that analysis at the rank of plant Genus is important both to understand the effectiveness of plant pest detection efforts and consequently to manage the risk of introduction of non-indigenous species.