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81.
Augmenting Watershed Model Calibration with Incorporation of Ancillary Data Sources and Qualitative Soft Data Sources 下载免费PDF全文
Haw Yen Michael J. White James C. Ascough II Douglas R. Smith Jeffrey G. Arnold 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2016,52(3):788-798
Watershed simulation models such as the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) can be calibrated using “hard data” such as temporal streamflow observations; however, users may find upon examination of model outputs, that the calibrated models may not reflect actual watershed behavior. Thus, it is often advantageous to use “soft data” (i.e., qualitative knowledge such as expected denitrification rates that observed time series do not typically exist) to ensure that the calibrated model is representative of the real world. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate the efficacy of coupling SWAT‐Check (a post‐evaluation framework for SWAT outputs) and IPEAT‐SD (Integrated Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis Tool‐Soft & hard Data evaluation) to constrain the bounds of soft data during SWAT auto‐calibration. IPEAT‐SD integrates 59 soft data variables to ensure SWAT does not violate physical processes known to occur in watersheds. IPEAT‐SD was evaluated for two case studies where soft data such as denitrification rate, nitrate attributed from subsurface flow to total discharge ratio, and total sediment loading were used to conduct model calibration. Results indicated that SWAT model outputs may not satisfy reasonable soft data responses without providing pre‐defined bounds. IPEAT‐SD provides an efficient and rigorous framework for users to conduct future studies while considering both soft data and traditional hard information measures in watershed modeling. 相似文献
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Wayne W. Lapham Michael J. Moran John S. Zogorski 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2000,36(6):1321-1334
ABSTRACT: The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has compiled a national retrospective data set of analyses of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in ground water of the United States. The data are from Federal, State, and local nonpoint‐source monitoring programs, collected between 1985–95. This data set is being used to augment data collected by the USGS National Water‐Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program to ascertain the occurrence of VOCs in ground water nationwide. Eleven attributes of the retrospective data set were evaluated to determine the suitability of the data to augment NAWQA data in answering occurrence questions of varying complexity. These 11 attributes are the VOC analyte list and the associated reporting levels for each VOC, well type, well‐casing material, type of openings in the interval (screened interval or open hole), well depth, depth to the top and bottom of the open interval(s), depth to water level in the well, aquifer type (confined or unconfined), and aquifer lithology. VOCs frequently analyzed included solvents, industrial reagents, and refrigerants, but other VOCs of current interest were not frequently analyzed. About 70 percent of the sampled wells have the type of well documented in the data set, and about 74 percent have well depth documented. However, the data set generally lacks documentation of other characteristics, such as well‐casing material, information about the screened or open interval(s), depth to water level in the well, and aquifer type and lithology. For example, only about 20 percent of the wells include information on depth to water level in the well and only about 14 percent of the wells include information about aquifer type. The three most important enhancements to VOC data collected in nonpoint‐source monitoring programs for use in a national assessment of VOC occurrence in ground water would be an expanded VOC analyte list, recording the reporting level for each analyte for every analysis, and recording key ancillary information about each well. These enhancements would greatly increase the usefulness of VOC data in addressing complex occurrence questions, such as those that seek to explain the reasons for VOC occurrence and nonoccurrence in ground water of the United States. 相似文献
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生命周期清单分析(LCI)数据质量的分析方法可概括为两类:采用诸如地理代表性、数据年代或数据获取方式等一系列指标来表示;根据不确定性来综合反映LCI质量.笔者在分析了这两类方法各自所存在缺陷的基础上,提出了将这两者相结合的评价方法:采用5个独立的反映数据质量的指标,根据系统各单元各数据属性对各指标从1~5进行打分,形成数据的质量指标向量元素.根据数据质量向量元素的算术平均在总指标范围中所占的百分数将质量指标向量转化为对应的综合数据质量指标(DQI),继而根据DQI可得出每个数据的随机分布,以便进行清单结果的不确定性随机模拟.最后将方法应用于钢铁生产生命周期清单数据中. 相似文献
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利用2005~2007年我国稻田N2O排放通量的田间原位测定资料和国际上其它地区稻田N2O报道结果,对作者建立的不同水分管理方式下水稻生长季N2O排放估算模型进行了验证. 结果表明,持续淹水稻田N2O排放的拟合结果与其他地区淹水稻田N2O通量值相一致. 淹水-烤田-淹水的水分管理方式下,稻田N2O排放的拟合值接近于国际上同类研究结果. 淹水-烤田-淹水-湿润灌溉的水分管理方式下,稻田N2O排放的估算模型对田间原位测定资料有很好的适切性. 为了检验模型输入参数的可信度,将本研究建立的有关我国水稻生产的相关资料数据库与以往研究报道结果进行了比较,结果表明,两者具有高度的一致性. 数据库资料表明,在20世纪50~70年代间,持续淹水稻田占20%~25%,大约75%~80%的稻田采用淹水-烤田-淹水的水分管理方式. 在20世纪80~90年代间,采用持续淹水,淹水-烤田-淹水和淹水-烤田-淹水-湿润灌溉水分管理方式的稻田分别约占12%~16%、 77%和7%~12%. 20世纪50年代水稻生长季平均每季总施氮量为87.49 kg·hm-2,而90年代平均为224.64 kg·hm-2. 其中,化学氮肥的施用量从20世纪50年代的37.4 kg·hm-2增加到了90年代的198.8 kg·hm-2,分别占水稻生长季氮输入总量的43%和88%. 在20世纪50~70年代间有机氮的输入量相对比较稳定,平均变幅在45.2~48.2 kg·hm-2之间,随后逐步降低,有机肥料氮占氮输入总量的比例从20世纪50年代的52%降低到了90年代的9%. 作物残体N输入量从20世纪50年代的4.9 kg·hm-2增加到了80年代的6.3 kg·hm-2. 20世纪50~70年代水稻生长季氮肥施用量具明显的空间变异性,而80~90年代间其空间变异较小. 模型验证和输入参数检验的结果表明,该模型能较好地模拟我国不同水分管理方式下的稻田N2O直接排放量. 相似文献
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在相关理论分析和Weber模型的基础上。拓展建立了面向水资源可持续发展的水资源最优配置模型。引入了基于政府管制的影响作用、沿河流域的水用户的实际消耗水量、实际排放水量、河流中可供使用水量及所排放污水水质水平等5个变量函数.通过政府管制下的水质和水量的河道内流量需求等环境约束条件.确保水资源利用始终满足最小基流水量。通过求量优解,计算得出在环境约束下达到最优配置时各个变量函数与对下游地区外部性之间的相关性。接着。本文对陕北黄土高原沿Y河的35家企业进行了实际调查.收集了2个年度共8个季度的观测值,应用计量经济Pand Data模型。对35个节点、8个季度的共280个数据作为混合样本进行经济计量分析。验证了相关结论。最后。还提出一些制定环境约束条件以及水用户间建立水资源环境生态补偿金机制等政策建议。 相似文献
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选取北京市近5年夏半年(4—9月)夜间的降雨数据及相关噪声自动监测小时等效声级,对小时雨量与噪声自动监测数据进行数学统计分析,找出影响噪声监测数据的小时雨量值及不同声级受雨噪声影响的雨量限值,作为降雨对噪声自动监测小时等效声级的有效性判定条件。 相似文献
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This paper compares predictions of the foodchain model SPADE with experimental data for the transfer of (134)Cs and (85)Sr to strawberry plants following acute foliar and soil contamination. The transfer pathways considered in this exercise included direct deposition to fruit, leaf-to-fruit, soil-to-leaf and soil-to-fruit transfers. Following foliar contamination, the difference between predicted and measured radionuclide activity values varied between a factor of 0.5-10 for fruit and 4.5-7 for leaf. Following soil contamination, the difference between predicted and measured values varied between a factor of 3-74 for fruit and 32-44 for leaf. In all cases the difference between measured and predicted values was smaller for (85)Sr than (134)Cs. Measured and predicted activities were higher for leaf than fruit. Both measured and predicted (134)Cs concentrations in fruit and leaf are higher when deposition occurs at ripening than at anthesis. These results confirm the need for more data on fruit, even for Cs and Sr, to support models in predicting the transfer of radionuclides to fruit crops. Ongoing research projects funded by the UK Food Standards Agency aim to provide some data on radionuclide transfer to herbaceous, shrub and tree fruits, which will help improve radiological assessment models in order to provide better protection for consumers. 相似文献