长三角地区汛期暴雨时空特征分析

为揭示长三角地区汛期暴雨时空特征,利用该地区20个气象测站1959—2005年逐日降水数据,统计不同测站年汛期(5月—9月)暴雨量、暴雨日数,采用数据场、线性趋势法、Mann-Ken-dall非参数检验法及Morlet小波方法对其进行分析。结果表明,长三角地区可分为南区、中区、北区3个空间区域。47 a来各分区汛期暴雨量呈先减少再增加的趋势,整体上呈增加趋势,但均不显著,只有中区在1998—2003年间出现超过α=0.05显著性水平的变化特征。各分区均存在25 a左右的准周期震荡,且具有全域性;从20世纪80年代开始短时间尺度周期(小于20 a)有延长趋势,但不稳定。     

危险化学品运输事故历史数据研究综述

系统地回顾国内外近20 a来的危险化学品运输事故历史数据分析的理论和方法,旨在为我国今后危险化学品运输风险研究提供指导。调研国内外危险化学品运输事故研究的历史数据来源,介绍该领域的主要研究方法及其发展过程,讨论现有研究内容及研究结果的共性和特征。发现现有研究主要集中于危险化学品的道路运输,侧重于分析运输事故的主要影响因素,经济损失、次生灾害及事故数与运输批次的关联方面的研究不足。提出要把事故后果的科学衡量作为未来的研究方向。     

安全生产违章行为的人口因素影响模型研究——基于省级面板数据的协整方法

为了探讨人口因素对安全生产违章行为的影响,基于省级面板数据,构建安全生产违章行为数量与作业人员人口因素之间的固定效应变系数模型。实证研究,从业者的受教育程度、第二产业在岗职工平均工资以及人员数量规模等因素,影响违章行为方式及程度。结果表明:受教育程度的提高将显著抑制违章行为的发生;提高作业人员工资将增加违章行为的成本进而遏制违章行为的产生,但这一效果会受到作业人员所持有的风险态度的影响;作业人员规模的增加将提高工伤事故率。建议从提供受培训教育机会、提高违章成本、降低第二产业比重、减少高危行业作业人员数量等方面采取措施遏制违章行为。     

浅谈授权签字人对环境监测数据报告的审核

根据计量认证和中国实验室国家认可工作中对授权签字人能力的考核以及通过认证／认可的实验室对授权签字人赋予的职责和权利,针对目前环境管理、环境执法以及社会公众对环境监测数据不断增长的需要,结合监测数据报告审核的体会,探讨了授权签字人在环境监测数据报告审核中应采取的审核程序与方法及重点关注的问题。     

基于均一化降水资料的中国极端降水特征分析

论文利用中国1961—2012年602个测站均一化的日降水资料,基于世界气象组织定义的11个极端降水指数,分析了近52 a中国极端降水事件的时空分布特征。结果表明：年极端降水指数长期变化趋势表明,大部分极端降水指数在我国西北和长江中下游地区（除CDD）以及东南沿海和华南大部分地区均呈现增加趋势,而在华北地区为减少趋势。极端降水指数随时间的变化表明,各指数具有明显的年际和年代际变化,从2000年开始大部分指数表现为不同程度的增加趋势,即极端降水事件从2000年开始偏多。     

工频电磁场对公众健康及风险感受影响调查

为调查工频电磁场对附近居民健康及风险感受的影响,对16条已投运110~500kV输电线两侧居民(n=615)开展问卷调查,根据输电线运行参数计算工频电磁场相对曝露强度,分析了工频电磁场对距线路中心50m内、外受调查者产生的健康影响差异,以及不同工频电磁场曝露强度、电压等级、塔型附近受调查者风险感受和负面情绪的均值差异,并通过多元线性逐步回归分析分别建立了工频电磁场公众风险感受、负面情绪与影响因素之间的最优回归模型.结果表明,工频电磁场对50m内和50m外受调查者产生健康影响的相对风险值为0.87;在本次调查的工频电磁场范围内(E<0.35kV/m,B<0.80 μT),公众风险感受和负面情绪受工频电磁场曝露强度影响很小,受输电线架线塔外观大小、塔型、既有身体状况等因素影响显著.     

A generalized approach for producing,quantifying, and validating citizen science data from wildlife images

Citizen science has the potential to expand the scope and scale of research in ecology and conservation, but many professional researchers remain skeptical of data produced by nonexperts. We devised an approach for producing accurate, reliable data from untrained, nonexpert volunteers. On the citizen science website www.snapshotserengeti.org , more than 28,000 volunteers classified 1.51 million images taken in a large‐scale camera‐trap survey in Serengeti National Park, Tanzania. Each image was circulated to, on average, 27 volunteers, and their classifications were aggregated using a simple plurality algorithm. We validated the aggregated answers against a data set of 3829 images verified by experts and calculated 3 certainty metrics—level of agreement among classifications (evenness), fraction of classifications supporting the aggregated answer (fraction support), and fraction of classifiers who reported “nothing here” for an image that was ultimately classified as containing an animal (fraction blank)—to measure confidence that an aggregated answer was correct. Overall, aggregated volunteer answers agreed with the expert‐verified data on 98% of images, but accuracy differed by species commonness such that rare species had higher rates of false positives and false negatives. Easily calculated analysis of variance and post‐hoc Tukey tests indicated that the certainty metrics were significant indicators of whether each image was correctly classified or classifiable. Thus, the certainty metrics can be used to identify images for expert review. Bootstrapping analyses further indicated that 90% of images were correctly classified with just 5 volunteers per image. Species classifications based on the plurality vote of multiple citizen scientists can provide a reliable foundation for large‐scale monitoring of African wildlife.     

Characterizing Spatial Uncertainty when Integrating Social Data in Conservation Planning

Recent conservation planning studies have presented approaches for integrating spatially referenced social (SRS) data with a view to improving the feasibility of conservation action. We reviewed the growing conservation literature on SRS data, focusing on elicited or stated preferences derived through social survey methods such as choice experiments and public participation geographic information systems. Elicited SRS data includes the spatial distribution of willingness to sell, willingness to pay, willingness to act, and assessments of social and cultural values. We developed a typology for assessing elicited SRS data uncertainty which describes how social survey uncertainty propagates when projected spatially and the importance of accounting for spatial uncertainty such as scale effects and data quality. These uncertainties will propagate when elicited SRS data is integrated with biophysical data for conservation planning and may have important consequences for assessing the feasibility of conservation actions. To explore this issue further, we conducted a systematic review of the elicited SRS data literature. We found that social survey uncertainty was commonly tested for, but that these uncertainties were ignored when projected spatially. Based on these results we developed a framework which will help researchers and practitioners estimate social survey uncertainty and use these quantitative estimates to systematically address uncertainty within an analysis. This is important when using SRS data in conservation applications because decisions need to be made irrespective of data quality and well characterized uncertainty can be incorporated into decision theoretic approaches.     

基于RBI与多米诺效应的输气站场设备定量风险评价

针对目前输气站场设备风险评价方法仅以单个设备为评价对象,并未考虑设备间相互影响的特点,提出将多米诺效应分析引入输气站场设备风险评价当中,再结合RBI(基于风险检测方法)对输气站场设备进行定量风险评价。首先,计算所评价设备的失效概率与危险指数,得到设备固有风险;然后对设备的多米诺效应风险进行计算;最后,得到设备总风险。实例分析表明,考虑多米诺效应风险后,站场单个设备的风险要明显增大。     

基于HJ-1B与TM热红外数据的大亚湾核电基地温排水遥感监测

选取同天过境的Landsat5TM和HJ-1B红外相机数据,在获取3个大气参数后,结合辐射传输模型分别对大亚湾核电基地附近海域海表温度和温排水温升区的分布情况进行遥感监测,对比结果显示,环境卫星遥感监测数据与TM数据监测所得温排水在空间分布上具有较高一致性,二者反演出的绝对温度相差不超过1.1℃,相同温升等级范围内的相对温度均值也不超过0.4℃.因此,HJ-1B红外相机可满足核电站热污染的监测需求.