Improving Efficiency Of Uncertainty Analysis In Complex Integrated Assessment Models: The Case Of The Rains Emission Module

Abstact Ever since the Regional Acidification Information and Simulation Model (RAINS) has been constructed, the treatment of uncertainty has remained an issue of major interest. In a recent review of the model performed for the Clean Air for Europe (CAFE) programme of the European Commission, a more systematic and structured uncertainty analysis has been recommended. This paper aims at contributing to the scientific debate how this can be achieved. Because of its complex structure on the one hand and limited research resources (time, computational capacities) on the other hand a full-blown uncertainty analysis in RAINS is hardly feasible. Therefore, all types of uncertainty require more efficient ways for uncertainty analysis. With respect to parameter uncertainty, we propose to focus research efforts for uncertainty analysis on key parameters. Among different approaches to select key parameters that have been discussed in the literature screening methods seem to be particularly appropriate for complex, deterministic Integrated Assessment models such as RAINS. Surprisingly, in Integrated Assessment modelling for air pollution problems of screening design have not been taken up so far. As a case study we consider the emission module of RAINS. We show that its structure allows for a straightforward and effective screening procedure     

Inter-Laboratory Comparison of No2 and SO2 Generated by Dynamic Dilution System Under Laboratory Conditions: A Technical Discussion

A workshop on analytical quality control (AQC) of ambient air quality measurement methods for nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and sulphur dioxide (SO₂) was conducted by Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) for officials involved in National Ambient Air Quality Monitoring (NAAQM) in India. Concentrations of NO₂ and SO₂ were generated by dynamic dilution system under laboratory conditions at low and high levels and measured using static dilution system and wet chemical methods laid down by CPCB under section 16(2)(h) of the air act 1981. CPCB provided the measured values as reference values for comparing the means obtained by the officials participated from thirteen organizations. A tolerance limit of ±15% of the reference values was specified to accept the results. Generated concentrations, which were unknown to the participants, were measured using gaseous sampling assembly (Envirotech APM 411, New Delhi, India), and wet chemical methods laid down by CPCB i.e. the same methodology which is used by the organizations to generate the data of NO₂ and SO₂ in ambient air. Simultaneously, concentrations were checked by CPCB using automatic analyzers as a check on reference concentration. It is observed that results of automatic analyzers for NO₂ and SO₂ were within a tolerance of ±5% with %RSD below 3. On the other hand, results of most of the participants showed variability in the measurements with %RSD ranging between ±0.8 and ±88.6 and exceedences of means from the tolerance limit with bias ranging between 1.4 and −59%. To check the cause of high variability in the measurements obtained under identical conditions, duplicate sampling was performed by one of the participants for SO₂ at low concentration level. In this study, results of wet chemical methods, automatic analyzers and results of duplicate sampling are analysed statistically to assess the cause of high variability in the measurements. Analysis of t-test and analysis of variance (ANOVA) showed highly significant results for NO₂ and SO₂ at high concentration levels (α 0.05) and for SO₂ at both the levels (α 0.01) respectively indicating some bias is existing either in the sampling or in analytical technique. Duplicate sampling performed to check precision in parallel measurements showed high %RSD indicating the presence of systematic error in sampling technique as the same calibration factor (CF) was used to measure the concentration of duplicate samples. Statistical analysis of flow rates of duplicate sampling showed that the sampling assembly could not maintain the constant flow rate within the ±10% with that measured at the start of the sampling. This resulted in high %RSD and deviation from the reference values for the results of most of the participants, even after accepting ±15% tolerance limit. There is a need to improve and evaluate this gaseous sample collection device under laboratory conditions to generate reliable database of NO₂ and SO₂ in ambient air.     

室内甲醛污染与控制

甲醛是室内空气污染的主要污染物之一,本文简单介绍了室内空气中甲醛污染的来源及危害,详细介绍了减少室内甲醛污染的净化措施.     

不同方法制备的铟催化剂选择性还原NO

不同负载量的In/Al₂O₃催化剂分别以浸渍法、共沉淀法和溶胶-凝胶法制得,对比评价了不同方法制备的样品在富氧条件下以丙烯为还原剂,选择性催化还原NO的活性,考察了氧气浓度、H₂O对活性的影响.研究表明,铟催化剂有较高的去除NO活性,制备方法对催化剂活性具有显著影响.其中,溶胶-凝胶法和共沉淀法最高活性都可达90%左右;而浸渍法样品的活性较差,最高转化率不到60%.氧气浓度对NOx最高转化率及其相应反应温度均有重要影响.随着O2浓度的提高,最高活性对应的反应温度降低.反应气氛中H₂O的加入使铟催化剂活性大幅降低.铟与其他多种金属活性组分相比,一个突出的不同表现是,3种方法各自的最佳负载量相差不大.     

水样不同处理方式对总磷监测值的影响

研究了水样不同处理方式对三峡水库长江干流江段总磷监测值的影响.结果表明,悬浮颗粒物浓度(SS)是澄清样和浑样、清样和浑样、清样和澄清样总磷之间差别的主要影响因子;用非线性回归方法得出了水样不同处理方式下总磷间的经验关系式,并进行了验证.结果表明,计算值和实测值基本吻合.依据SS和所得经验关系,可计算磷在水-固两相之间的分配,及磷在粗颗粒物和细颗粒物中的赋存比例.河床上覆水体中溶解态磷、颗粒态磷及赋存于粗颗粒物上的磷所占比例皆随悬浮颗粒物浓度发生显著变化.SS大于500mg·L-1时,90%以上的磷赋存于悬浮颗粒物上,澄清样磷仅代表了整体总磷浓度的50%以下.     

Maximum permissible and negligible concentrations for some organic substances and pesticides

The aim of the paper is to provide interested parties the methods that were used for generic hazard assessment in The Netherlands, and the resulting so-called maximum permissible concentrations (MPCs) and the negligible concentrations (NCs) for approximately 150 organic substances and pesticides. The MPCs and NCs were derived for water, sediment, and soil. The concentration in the environment above which the risk of adverse effects was considered unacceptable to ecosystems is called the MPC. The MPCs take into account that the substances are distributed among the different environmental compartments, and are harmonized accordingly. The MPCs served as a basis for the Dutch government to set generic environmental quality standards (EQS) in The Netherlands (IWINS,[15]). EQS in turn are used by the Dutch Government to assess the environmental quality and for other environmental policy purposes. Concentrations in the environment below which the occurrence of adverse effects is considered to be negligible are called NCs. Hazards must be reduced when the environmental concentration of a substance exceeds its MPC. In-between this limits reduction of hazards is preferable. The MPC is a scientifically derived hazard limit. The NC is simply defined as 1% of the MPC. In general, there is a great demand for ecotoxicological data that currently limits a more reliable estimate of many MPCs. For water, approximately half of the MPCs are derived on the basis of four or more NOECs (no observed effect concentrations). For the other half, MPCs are based on only a few chronic or acute tests. For soil and sediment, however, almost no ecotoxicological data are available, and MPCs for those compartments have, in many cases, been derived from MPCs in water applying the equilibrium partitioning method (EqP-method), resulting in MPCs with greater uncertainty. Some of the methods and underlying assumptions that have been used may need improvement. For example, the factor between MPC and NC, the statistical extrapolation method, the method that is used for secondary poisoning, the role of the background concentrations of ‘naturally’ occurring substances, and the bioavailability and the EqP-method. There is a great need for hazard limits, and the present compilation tries to provide those as well as identifying research gaps.     

Description of hydrogeologic heterogeneity and evaluation of radionuclide transport at an underground nuclear test

Realistic models of contaminant transport in groundwater demand detailed characterization of the spatial distribution of subsurface hydraulic properties, while at the same time programmatic constraints may limit collection of pertinent hydraulic data. Fortunately, alternate forms of data can be used to improve characterization of spatial variability. We utilize a methodology that augments sparse hydraulic information (hard data) with more widely available hydrogeologic information to generate equiprobable maps of hydrogeologic properties that incorporate patterns of connected permeable zones. Geophysical and lithologic logs are used to identify hydrogeologic categories and to condition stochastic simulations using Sequential Indicator Simulation (SIS). The resulting maps are populated with hydraulic conductivity values using field data and Sequential Gaussian Simulation (SGS). Maps of subsurface hydrogeologic heterogeneity are generated for the purpose of examining groundwater flow and transport processes at the Faultless underground nuclear test, Central Nevada Test Area (CNTA), through large-scale, three-dimensional numerical modeling. The maps provide the basis for simulation of groundwater flow, while transport of radionuclides from the nuclear cavity is modeled using particle tracking methods. Sensitivity analyses focus on model parameters that are most likely to reduce the long travel times observed in the base case. The methods employed in this study have improved our understanding of the spatial distribution of preferential flowpaths at this site and provided the critical foundation on which to build models of groundwater flow and transport. The results emphasize that the impacts of uncertainty in hydraulic and chemical parameters are dependent on the radioactive decay of specific species, with rapid decay magnifying the effects of parameters that change travel time.     

Direct and indirect methods for chromium identification in industrial wastes

The examinations of selected wastes and stream sediments from the vicinity of a chemical plant by sequential extraction procedures and direct methods, SEM/EDX and XRD, were carried out in order to identify the different forms of chromium, particularly as they are released to potential mobility. The results show that the top and bottom waste samples contain 37,756 and 53,650 μg g¹ Cr, respectively, but about 7% and 2% of the total chromium type Cr(VI). The chemical extraction results show that the mobility of Cr in the upper part of the waste pile is significantly higher than in the bottom section; the exchangeable form of Cr accounts for 25% and < 1%, respectively, the last one irrespective of redox conditions. About 50% of Cr is associated with the reducible fraction of the top waste, and similar with the residual fraction in the bottom waste. Oxidation of the bottom waste shift some portion of Cr from residual to the moderately reducible fraction. The major Cr-forms in the river sediments are compounded with Fe-oxides. The < 2 μm size fraction of the selected sediment sample, particular enriched in chromium contained up to 73,000 μg g¹ Cr with about 95% of this in the moderately reducible fraction, predominantly bound with oxyhydroxides. SEM/EDX and XRD analysis of wastes and river sediment indicate that the main insoluble Cr-phase is ferroan — (Mg, Fe) (Cr, Al)²O⁴ which would be dissolved mainly in the residual fraction.     

提高LIFAC法脱硫效率的工程实例

针对LIFAC法脱硫效率低的问题,从吸收剂的涡流循环喷钙装置、增强吸收剂的活性、抑制脱硫产物硫酸钙的高温分解等几个方面进行了剖析,并自制LIFAC法廉价喷钙剂,在佛山华丰纸业有限公司进行中试,取得了脱硫率平均90%以上的效果,最后,作者对该技术的优越性进行了评估。     

An assessment of sampling,preservation, and analytical procedures for arsenic speciation in potentially contaminated waters

This study was undertaken to ascertain optimal methods of sampling, preserving, separating, and analyzing arsenic species in potentially contaminated waters. Arsenic species are readily transformed in nature by slight changes in conditions. Each species has a different toxicity and mobility. The conventional field sampling method using filters of 0.45 μm in size could overestimate the dissolved arsenic concentrations, as passing suspended particles that can act as a sink or source of arsenic depending on the site condition. For arsenic species in neutral pH and iron-poor waters, the precipitation can be stable for up to 3 days without any treatment, but for longer periods, a preservative, such as phosphoric acid, is required. Also, the analytical procedure must be selected carefully because the levels and hydride generation efficiencies of arsenic in different species can vary, even for the same amount of arsenic. For arsenic speciation in samples that also include organic species, a hybrid high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) column and inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) gave the best resolution and lowest detection limits. However, the procedure using a solid phase extraction (SPE) cartridge can be used economically and conveniently for analyzing samples containing only inorganic arsenic species, such as groundwater, especially that related to mine activity.